...Price Deck Revised Sharply Down: In January Fitch Ratings cut the crude oil price assumption underlying its corporate forecasts for 2015 to USD55 for Brent (USD50 WTI) from USD97. This follows the sharp slide in oil prices in the second half of 2014, and the conservative assumption that prices will remain depressed for some time. We expect prices to rebound to the marginal cost of supply of USD80 Brent in the medium term and now use as a base case a gradual increase to this level by 2017. We believe this to be an appropriately conservative assumption to use in our forecasts while also recognising that oil could recover faster. Refining, Gas, Leverage Mitigate Effects: Effects on financial profiles will be largest in those companies dominated by oil-focused exploration and production and where balance sheets were more leveraged before the price fall. We believe refining margins will not sustain the highs seen in 3Q14-4Q14, but that fundamentally they are not linked to the oil price in the...
