...Stagnant Industry The industrial sector has had a negative annual growth rate for four consecutive quarters as of March 2015, with the oil refining subsector being the mostly affected. This poses a challenge for municipalities whose economies thrive on industry because business- related municipal tax collecting could stagnate or even decrease in 2015. Fitch Ratings does not expect a significant recovery for the industrial sector until mid-2016, after government stimulus actions and market corrections take effect. Construction-Driven Economy Construction has been the main driver for Colombian economic growth since second- half 2013. Most forecasts indicate construction will remain the economic activity with the highest growth rate for years to come, driven by government infrastructure plans. The fact that economic growth and employment depend so much on new housing construction is a concern because of construction's highly cyclical behavior. Lower than expected performance in the short to...
