...Severe Shock Scenario: This report assesses the impact of a hypothetical slowdown in China's economic growth rate on sovereigns and corporates with extensive financial ties to China. The scenario varies greatly from Fitch Ratings' current expectations regarding China's future economic performance. The report focuses on the potential credit implications, across a broad range of Fitch-rated issuers, of an unanticipated severe slowdown in China. This slowdown scenario, analyzed with the help of Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model, assumes average China GDP growth rates of 2.3% over the 20162018 period, compared with 5.7% during the same period in Oxford's base case and 6.0% for 2017 in Fitch's base case. This research does not call into question our analysts' assumptions as expressed in Fitch's credit ratings, research and reports (see text box on page 2). Scope of Global Macro Risk: Major trading partners in the Asia/Pacific (APAC) region, notably Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore,...
