...Credit Metrics Remain Stretched: The deterioration in the credit metrics of oil majors in 2015 will be extended into 2016, but we will only take negative action where we expect the current cyclical downturn to permanently impair companies' credit profiles. In 1H15 we downgraded Total to `AA-' from `AA', and Eni to `A' from `A+', primarily because of higher expected leverage through the cycle. Shell's ratings were placed on Rating Watch Negative following the announcement of BG's acquisition in April 2015. BP's Outlook, conversely, was changed to Positive from Negative driven by the favourable Macondo settlement deal. Oil Weakness to Persist: Oil prices are likely to remain low for longer than previously expected. Our revised price deck assumes no recovery in 2016 with Brent staying at USD55/bbl for one more year. European refining margins, which supported earnings of integrated players in 2015, are likely to moderate in 2016, due to remaining structural problems and intense competition...
