DOMESTIC POLITICS: The prime minister, Bruce Golding, will face an increasingly precarious economic and social balance during the outlook period as his government formally returns to the IMF, an economically necessary--but politically dangerous--policy decision. The administration will struggle to maintain public support for its fiscal austerity measures--including potential cuts to social programmes and public-sector employment--which are crucial for reining in expenditure. Although the government's popularity will suffer, the opposition People's National Party (PNP) will be unable to capitalise on the JLP's misfortune owing to growing divisions within its own ranks. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the JLP to defend its slim 32-28 majority in parliament in the short term, but the Golding administration will be increasingly vulnerable if it fails to jumpstart economic growth in 2010. Jamaica's already high crime levels will continue to worsen as a result of the recession and rising unemployment. Low confidence in the security forces and the criminal justice system, and scarce fiscal resources, will constrain the government's efforts to reduce crime. With results difficult to achieve, the security issue is likely to remain troublesome for the Golding administration.

Source: Jamaica: Country outlook

Source: EIU Country Data