DOMESTIC POLITICS: The prime minister, Bruce Golding of the JLP, will have few tools at his disposal to lessen the recession and will focus on maintaining fiscal austerity to keep Jamaica's massive public debt manageable. Despite difficult economic circumstances, the JLP will remain popular but will face persistent pressure from the opposition People's National Party (PNP). The PNP will continue to force by-elections--by seeking disqualifications of JLP members of parliament (MPs) on technical grounds--in an attempt to reduce the JLP's slim 32-28 majority in parliament. The PNP's accusation that the government's budget has neglected to cushion the recession for the poorest Jamaicans has not yet gained traction. However, as the recession deepens and by-elections force a national debate, the Golding administration will be increasingly vulnerable. In addition, the administration will struggle to maintain union support for its fiscal austerity measures--including foregoing previously agreed salary increases--which are crucial for keeping expenditure at targeted levels. This will prove difficult, as job cuts and planned divestment of state assets continue to raise tensions between the unions and the government. Jamaica's already high crime levels will continue to worsen as a result of the downturn. The government will struggle to progress with its anti-crime platform while confidence in the security forces and the criminal justice system is low, unemployment is rising and fiscal resources are scarce. With results difficult to achieve, the security issue is likely to be just as troublesome for the JLP government as it was for its predecessor.

Source: Jamaica: Country outlook

Source: EIU Country Data