Emerging Markets Global: Russia-Ukraine conflict heightens risks for nearly 30% of nonfinancial companies

...+ Around 30% of emerging market companies we rate will be at risk if the Russia- Ukraine conflict escalates. Emerging market companies are more at risk of credit quality erosion than those in developed markets. About 3% of developed market companies will face significant credit stress under our baseline scenario, rising to 8% for emerging market nonfinancial companies. Another 23% of emerging market companies are at risk in our downside scenario, with their main exposure through the effects of commodity price shocks and financial and economic disruption. About 7% of emerging market companies will benefit from high commodity prices. + EM Asia companies most vulnerable in our baseline scenario, but driven by already tight funding conditions for China homebuilding sector. Exposure to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is relatively low in our baseline scenario but companies in emerging Asia have higher exposure. Chinese property developers drive this exposure. Their imminent refinancing risk was...

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