...Stable Outlook: The Republic of Uzbekistan's ratings balance robust external and fiscal buffers, low government debt and a record of high growth relative to `BB' rated peers against high commodity dependence, high inflation and structural weaknesses in terms of low GDP per capita and weak institutional and governance levels. Growth to Outperform Peers: Fitch Ratings forecasts growth at 6.2% in 2021, and the economy will maintain strong momentum averaging 5.7% in 2022-2023 (forecast 3.7% for the `BB' median) supported by a gradual fiscal consolidation, strong investment, continued access to external financing and reforms positively affecting agriculture, construction and industrial production. Gradual Fiscal Consolidation: Fitch forecasts a gradual fiscal consolidation with the overall deficit reaching 4.3% and 3.8% of GDP in 2022 and 2023, respectively, as the authorities continue to emphasise spending on investment, education, health and education. The government is also considering tax...
