Abstract: The economy is expected to be very slow in the first half of 2008. Whether it will count as a recession will be a technical decision made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but the odds that an actual recession will result have risen to even. Even if there is no recession officially, it will feel like a recession to most Americans. The housing problems have taken most of the attention in the media so far, but housing alone is unlikely to cause a recession. Residential construction was only 4.4% of GDP in the third quarter (down from 5.6% a year earlier). Housing starts have already dropped 48% from their January 2006 peak without causing more than a mild

Brief Excerpt: RESEARCH Ratings Definitions Economic Research: U.S. Economic Forecast: Fasten Your Seatbelts, ItaÇÖs Going To Be A Bumpy Year Publication date: 07-Jan-2008 Credit Market Services: David Wyss, Chief Economist, New York (1) 212-438-4952;...

Report Type: Commentary
Sector: Asset-Backed Commercial Paper, Asset-Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations, Commercial MBS, Corporations, Financial Institutions, Global Issuers, Insurance, International Public Finance, Public Finance, Real Estate Companies, Residential MBS, Servicer Evaluations, Sovereigns, Structured Finance, Utilities
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