UK Town Centre Retailing 2009 - 2009/11/04 - Verdict Research

Report title: UK Town Centre Retailing 2009

from Verdict Research
138 page report published Nov 04, 2009

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IntroductionThis report provides detailed ranking and information on the Top 100 GB towns and shopping centres, providing shopping populations, vacancy rates, sizes and more. Moreover, it includes data and trends for town centre retailing as a whole and by sector over the last 10 years and forecasts for the next five years, as well as comprehensive analysis of current and future town centre retail issues.Scope*Market value and growth, space, sales densities and store numbers 1998-2008 with forecasts to 2013*Comprehensive analysis of the pipeline of all shopping centre developments over 25,000 sq m due to open 2008-2015*Review of performance of recently opened shopping centres, such as Westfield London and Cardiff St Davids*Analysis of top 100 GB shopping destinations by 12 criteria including vacancy rates, size, proportion of AB shoppers and size of shopping populationHighlightsAs the largest, most discretionary location and one that is being squeezed by the transfer of spend to the grocers and online, town centre is shrinking the fastest of any retail location, contracting by 3.4% in 2009. The resultant shakeout to remove excess capacity across several sectors is permanently changing the face of high street retailing.While a number of retail developments have been put on hold owing to the economic downturn, the majority of Verdict's Top 10 town centres have experienced recent new developments. This is a reflection of the increasing pull of these locations to the detriment of secondary town centres, a trend that we expect the economic downturn to accelerate.Over the past year, the rise in vacancy rates has forced retailers and landlords to be more flexible. Landlords have to be more proactive in tempting retailers to take on space meaning there are some attractive deals on offer for retailers.Reasons to Purchase*Identify the leading town centre locations and how they are performing relatively to each other and their own history*Track town centre's retail performance as a whole, or by individual sector, both over the last decade and its likely performance moving forward*Identify which areas of the UK are set for development of their retail propositions and how they are likely to fare

Source:

Verdict

Document ID:

DMVT0529

Industry:

Retailing Non-Food

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Title	Starting Page	Number of Pages
Sections
TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 Key findings 13 Main conclusions 14 Town centre summary 19 CHAPTER 2 RETAIL ISSUES 20 Recession confirms long term decline line 21 High street turmoil turns slowdown into downturn 21 Heightened frugality dri	0	1
TABLE OF CONTENTS	0	1
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13	0	1
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	13	7
Key findings	13	1
Key findings 13	0	1
Main conclusions 14	0	1
Main conclusions	14	5
Town centre summary	19	1
Town centre summary 19	0	1
CHAPTER 2 RETAIL ISSUES 20	0	1
CHAPTER 2 RETAIL ISSUES	20	22
Recession confirms long term decline line	21	1
Recession confirms long term decline line 21	0	1
High street turmoil turns slowdown into downturn 21	0	1
High street turmoil turns slowdown into downturn	21	3
Heightened frugality drives polarisation of demand	24	1
Heightened frugality drives polarisation of demand 24	0	1
Consumer spending on non-food becomes much more considered 24	0	1
Consumer spending on non-food becomes much more considered	24	2
Traditional high street specialists struggle to remain relevant	26	1
Traditional high street specialists struggle to remain relevant 26	0	1
Specialists fight waning relevance vs grocers, non-specialists and online 26	0	1
Specialists fight waning relevance vs grocers, non-specialists and online	26	4
Much secondary retail space disappears	30	1
Much secondary retail space disappears 30	0	1
New premium space further damages secondary locations 30	0	1
New premium space further damages secondary locations	30	2
Don t pin hopes on planning and competition legislation	32	1
Donâ€™t pin hopes on planning and competition legislation 32	0	1
Favourable legislation will do little to aid town centres 32	0	1
Favourable legislation will do little to aid town centres	32	3
Dealing with unwanted space through closer collaboration	35	1
Dealing with unwanted space through closer collaboration 35	0	1
Vacancy rates rise 35	0	1
Vacancy rates rise	35	3
Pop-up stores fill vacant spaces	38	3
Pop-up stores fill vacant spaces 38	0	1
Other landlord-led innovations emerge 41	0	1
Other landlord-led innovations emerge	41	1
CHAPTER 3 STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS	42	2
CHAPTER 3 STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS 42	0	1
Retailers need to be lean and competive as market contracts 42	0	1
Retailers need to be lean and competive as market contracts	42	1
Landlord flexibility will protect rental income and asset value	43	1
Landlord flexibility will protect rental income and asset value 43	0	1
CHAPTER 4 TOP 100 TOWN CENTRES & MALLS 44	0	1
CHAPTER 4 TOP 100 TOWN CENTRES & MALLS	44	12
Methodology	44	3
Methodology 44	0	1
Top 10 47	0	1
Top 10	47	1
Central London	47	1
Central London 47	0	1
Glasgow 48	0	1
Glasgow	48	1
Manchester	48	1
Manchester 48	0	1
Birmingham 48	0	1
Birmingham	48	1
Leeds	49	1
Leeds 49	0	1
Newcastle 50	0	1
Newcastle	50	1
Edinburgh	50	1
Edinburgh 50	0	1
Nottingham 50	0	1
Nottingham	50	1
Kingston-upon-Thames	51	1
Kingston-upon-Thames 51	0	1
Milton Keynes 51	0	1
Milton Keynes	51	5
CHAPTER 5 TOWN CENTRE VS OTHER LOCATIONS	56	20
CHAPTER 5 TOWN CENTRE VS OTHER LOCATIONS 56	0	1
Growing pressure on town centre hits high street in particular 56	0	1
Growing pressure on town centre hits high street in particular	56	3
Retail sales by location	59	1
Retail sales by location 59	0	1
Town centre suffers from exposure to discretionary non-food retailers 59	0	1
Town centre suffers from exposure to discretionary non-food retailers	59	2
Retail spend by location	61	2
Retail spend by location 61	0	1
Sales and sources of growth 63	0	1
Sales and sources of growth	63	1
Deflation and space closure drive declines	63	2
Deflation and space closure drive declines 63	0	1
Space by location 65	0	1
Space by location	65	1
Significant decline due to closures, collapses and cautious approach	65	2
Significant decline due to closures, collapses and cautious approach 65	0	1
Sales densities by location 67	0	1
Sales densities by location	67	2
Store numbers by location	69	2
Store numbers by location 69	0	1
Forecast 71	0	1
Forecast	71	1
Continuing sector shakeout will see town centre diminish in significance	71	5
Continuing sector shakeout will see town centre diminish in significance 71	0	1
CHAPTER 6 SECTOR SUMMARIES 76	0	1
CHAPTER 6 SECTOR SUMMARIES	76	25
Shakeout in some sectors changes high street retailing forever	76	3
Shakeout in some sectors changes high street retailing forever 76	0	1
Books, news & stationery specialists 79	0	1
Books, news & stationery specialists	79	1
To bottom out in 2011-12 as liking for high street bookshop endures	79	3
To bottom out in 2011-12 as liking for high street bookshop endures 79	0	1
Clothing & footwear specialists 82	0	1
Clothing & footwear specialists	82	1
Premium new space helps prop up sales growth	82	3
Premium new space helps prop up sales growth 82	0	1
Department stores 85	0	1
Department stores	85	1
Retailers seek new routes to growth as consumers become more frugal	85	3
Retailers seek new routes to growth as consumers become more frugal 85	0	1
Electricals specialists 88	0	1
Electricals specialists	88	1
Retailers close unprofitable high street stores	88	2
Retailers close unprofitable high street stores 88	0	1
Food & grocery specialists 90	0	1
Food & grocery specialists	90	1
Impressive growth despite space consolidation	90	3
Impressive growth despite space consolidation 90	0	1
Furniture & floorcoverings specialists 93	0	1
Furniture & floorcoverings specialists	93	1
Market in throes of painful contraction	93	2
Market in throes of painful contraction 93	0	1
General merchandisers 95	0	1
General merchandisers	95	1
Woolworths collapse has major impact but value operators show growth	95	2
Woolworths collapse has major impact but value operators show growth 95	0	1
Health & beauty specialists 97	0	1
Recession proof sector achieves huge growth in sales densities 97	0	1
Health & beauty specialists	97	1
Recession proof sector achieves huge growth in sales densities	97	3
Music & video specialists 100	0	1
Sales transfer online â€“ HMV last man standing on high street 100	0	1
Music & video specialists	100	1
Sales transfer online HMV last man standing on high street	100	1
CHAPTER 7 TOWN CENTRE WINNERS AND LOSERS 102	0	1
Huge changes on the high street 102	0	1
CHAPTER 7	101	1
CHAPTER 7 TOWN CENTRE WINNERS AND LOSERS	102	21
Total sales 103	0	1
Value orientated retailers prosper as discretionary spend declines 103	0	1
Huge changes on the high street	102	1
Total sales	103	1
Operating profit 108	0	1
Deep discounting and weak sterling impact adversely on profitability 108	0	1
Value orientated retailers prosper as discretionary spend declines	103	5
Operating profit	108	1
Operating margin 110	0	1
Town centre retailers experience marked decline in operating margins 110	0	1
Deep discounting and weak sterling impact adversely on profitability	108	2
Operating margin	110	1
Space 112	0	1
Renewed focus on improving exisiting space as rate of expansion slows 112	0	1
Town centre retailers experience marked decline in operating margins	110	2
Space	112	1
Sales densities 116	0	1
Sales densities decline as discretionary demand falls away 116	0	1
Renewed focus on improving exisiting space as rate of expansion slows	112	4
Sales densities	116	1
Store numbers 119	0	1
Short term opportunities exist as capacity falls out of the market 119	0	1
Sales densities decline as discretionary demand falls away	116	3
Store numbers	119	1
Advertising media expenditure 122	0	1
Advertising declines as town centre based retailers aim to cut costs 122	0	1
Short term opportunities exist as capacity falls out of the market	119	3
CHAPTER 8 NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS 123	0	1
Major retail developments in 2008 123	0	1
Advertising media expenditure	122	1
Advertising declines as town centre based retailers aim to cut costs	122	1
Three new centres perform solidly 123	0	1
Westfield London, White City 124	0	1
CHAPTER 8	122	1
CHAPTER 8 NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS	123	14
Benefits from prime location and differentiated proposition 124	0	1
Liverpool One 126	0	1
Major retail developments in 2008	123	1
Three new centres perform solidly	123	1
Raises cityâ€™s destination status 126	0	1
Cabot Circus, Bristol 127	0	1
Westfield London, White City	124	1
Benefits from prime location and differentiated proposition	124	2
Experiences a solid first year but challenges mount 127	0	1
Other significant developments in 2008 128	0	1
Liverpool One	126	1
Raises city s destination status	126	1
Developments in the pipeline 129	0	1
New developments tail off 129	0	1
Cabot Circus, Bristol	127	1
Experiences a solid first year but challenges mount	127	1
St Davidâ€™s II, Cardiff 132	0	1
Faces high vacancy levels on opening 132	0	1
Other significant developments in 2008	128	1
Developments in the pipeline	129	1
Westfield Stratford, London 134	0	1
Westfield to further challenge supremacy of central London 134	0	1
New developments tail off	129	1
On hold/cancelled developments 135	0	1
Uncertain outlook fosters new era of caution 136	0	1
St David s II, Cardiff	132	1
Faces high vacancy levels on opening	132	2
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY 137	0	1
Terminology 137	0	1
Westfield Stratford, London	134	1
Westfield to further challenge supremacy of central London	134	1
Abbreviations 138	0	1
On hold/cancelled developments	135	1
Uncertain outlook fosters new era of caution	136	1
LIST OF TABLES	0	1
Table 1: Town centre sales and space 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013e 19	0	1
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY	137	2
Terminology	137	1
Table 2: Town centre retailers strategies for success 2009 42	0	1
Table 3: Town centre landlords strategies for success 2009 43	0	1
Abbreviations	138	1
Table 4: Weighting of factors determining Top 100 centres in 2009 45	0	1
Table 5: 1-10 of Verdictâ€™s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 47	0	1
Table 6: 11-30 of Verdictâ€™s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 53	0	1
Table 7: 31-60 of Verdictâ€™s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 54	0	1
Table 8: 61-100 of Verdictâ€™s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009 55	0	1
Table 9: Retail location definitions 2009 57	0	1
Table 10: Retail spending by location at current prices 1998-2009e 61	0	1
Table 11: Sales through town centre retailers 1998-2009e 63	0	1
Table 12: Sources of growth for town centre retailers 1998-2009e 64	0	1
Table 13: Town centre floorspace vs all stores 1998-2009e 65	0	1
Table 15: Sales densities by location at current prices 1998-2009e 67	0	1
Table 14: Store numbers by location 1998-2009e 69	0	1
Table 16: Town centre summary data 2003, 2008 & 2013 72	0	1
Table 17: Town centre vs total retail spending 1998-2013 73	0	1
Table 18: Town centre sales and share of sector 2009 78	0	1
Table 19: Books, news, stationery specialists in town centre 2004, 08 & 09 79	0	1
Table 20: Clothing & footwear specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 & 09 82	0	1
Table 21: Department stores in town centre 2004, 2008 and 2009 85 Table 22: Electricals specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009 88 Table 23: Food & grocery specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009 90 Table 24: Furniture & fâ€™covering specia	0	1

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