Credit Crunch Update: No Green Shoots in EU Retailing Q1/2 2009 - 2009/07/17 - Verdict Research

Report title: Credit Crunch Update: No Green Shoots in EU Retailing Q1/2 2009

from Verdict Research
70 page report published Jul 17, 2009

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IntroductionMost consumers in the EU have reached the peak of private indebtedness, as unemployment rates are rising, consumer confidence is dipping and consumer credit becomes increasingly hard to get hold of. This brief provides an update on this contracting economic activity.Scope*Macro economic data on 27 markets, structural indicators and forecasts for each of the 27 EU countries.*Analysis of the major threats in the market, price developments and the immediate response of European governments and retailers.*Detailed chapters on three months of trading updates from the EU, with recent developments and future outlook.*Appraisal of strategic issues, Lidl's latest initiatives and Arcandor's insolvency, Germany's biggest casualty of the crisis so far.HighlightsWe find ourselves slogging through the bleakest economic landscape most of us have known in our lifetimes. Verdict expects that the recession in the EU will end sometime perhaps as early as 2010. That would make it the longest and probably deepest downturn since the Great Depression.Eventually, old and broken down goods will need to be replaced, and the resulting demand will drive economic and retail sales growth. That said, we expect the pace of the recovery will be extremely slow. We are not through the worst yet. We believe that yet more retail casualties such as Arcandor are around the corner.We are also sceptical about capacity shifts. While insolvencies are usually good news for rival surviving retailers as they stand to gain market share, we are now operating under conditions of severe financial stress and consumer confidence at rock bottom levels. This means that capacity might simply disappear altogether as demand collapses.Reasons to Purchase*Learn how difficult market conditions are driving competition among retailers and what the outlook for EU retail will be in the short to mid-term.*Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop new product, sales and marketing strategies in a profoundly changed market.*Identify the remaining success stories and growth prospects of the key markets and competitors and benchmark their performance.

Source:

17/07/2009 00:00:00

Document ID:

BFVT0070

Industry:

Retailing Non-Food

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Title	Starting Page	Number of Pages
Sections
TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 Key Findings 9 Main Conclusions 10 CHAPTER 2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 13 Main Messages 13 GDP Top 10 15 GDP Top 10 15 GDP Top 10 Forecasts â?? Bleak Outlook 16 GDP: Midranking Eight 17 GDP Midranking Eight â?? Growt	0	1
TABLE OF CONTENTS	0	1
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9	0	1
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	9	62
Key Findings	9	1
Key Findings 9	0	1
Main Conclusions 10	0	1
Main Conclusions	10	3
CHAPTER 2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW	13	24
CHAPTER 2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 13	0	1
Main Messages 13	0	1
Main Messages	13	1
GDP Top 10	14	2
GDP Top 10 15	0	1
GDP Top 10 15	0	1
GDP Top 10 Forecasts Bleak Outlook	16	1
GDP: Midranking Eight	17	1
GDP Top 10 Forecasts â€“ Bleak Outlook 16	0	1
GDP: Midranking Eight 17	0	1
GDP Midranking Eight Growth Erosion	18	1
GDP: Smaller Nine	19	1
GDP Midranking Eight â€“ Growth Erosion 18	0	1
GDP: Smaller Nine 19	0	1
GDP Smaller Nine Growth Erosion Bad For Baltics	20	1
Consumer Expenditure	21	2
GDP Smaller Nine â€“ Growth Erosion Bad For Baltics 20	0	1
Consumer Expenditure 21	0	1
Structure	23	2
Inflation Falls Rapidly At End-2008	25	1
Structure 23	0	1
Inflation Falls Rapidly At End-2008 25	0	1
HICP Annual Averages	26	3
Savings Rate To Increase Sharply	29	1
HICP Annual Averages 26	0	1
Savings Rate To Increase Sharply 29	0	1
Euro Interest Rate Turns Downward 31	0	1
Euro Interest Rate Turns Downward	31	2
Other Interest Rates	33	2
Other Interest Rates 33	0	1
Unemployment â€“ Lagging Indicator 35	0	1
Unemployment Lagging Indicator	35	2
CHAPTER 3 EUROPEAN MARKET RETAIL SPENDING	37	4
CHAPTER 3 EUROPEAN MARKET â€“ RETAIL SPENDING 37	0	1
Latest Expenditure Trends 37	0	1
Latest Expenditure Trends	37	4
CHAPTER 4 MAJOR STORIES	41	5
CHAPTER 4 MAJOR STORIES 41	0	1
Lidl starts selling cars 41	0	1
Lidl starts selling cars	41	2
Arcandor goes bust	43	2
Arcandor goes bust 43	0	1
CHAPTER 5 CURRENT TRADING UPDATES 46	0	1
March 46	0	1
CHAPTER 5 CURRENT TRADING UPDATES	46	10
March	46	1
April 47	0	1
May 49	0	1
April	47	2
May	49	1
Grocery 49	0	1
Clothing 51	0	1
Grocery	49	2
Clothing	51	1
Other sectors 52	0	1
June 54	0	1
Other sectors	52	2
June	54	2
CHAPTER 6 STRATEGIC SECTION 56	0	1
Key Issues 56	0	1
CHAPTER 6 STRATEGIC SECTION	56	7
Key Issues	56	1
As we predicted, Deflation remains the Major Threat 56	0	1
Discounters and the Reaction Depress Prices Further 60	0	1
As we predicted, Deflation remains the Major Threat	56	4
Discounters and the Reaction Depress Prices Further	60	1
Threat of Deflation in Wider Economy 62	0	1
CHAPTER 7 THE POLICY RESPONSE 63	0	1
The G20 and its impact on the retail sector: Boosting consumer and retailer confidence 63	0	1
Threat of Deflation in Wider Economy	62	1
CHAPTER 7 THE POLICY RESPONSE	63	3
CHAPTER 8 THE RETAILERSâ€™ RESPONSE 66	0	1
Private label development 66	0	1
The G20 and its impact on the retail sector: Boosting consumer and retailer confidence	63	3
CHAPTER 8 THE RETAILERS RESPONSE	66	4
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY 70	0	1
Definitions 70	0	1
Private label development	66	4
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY	70	1
Definitions	70	1
LIST OF TABLES	0	1
Table 1: Monthly HICP rates y-o-y Nov 2008 - Apr 2009 25	0	1
Table 2: Monthly Unemployment rates y-o-y Oct 2008 - Mar 2009 35	0	1
Table 3: Monthly retail growth rates y-o-y Oct 2008 - Mar 2009 37	0	1
LIST OF FIGURES	0	1
Figure 1: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2008e 15	0	1
Figure 2: GDP change % forecast for Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009 16	0	1
Figure 3: GDP: Midsize Eight (â‚¬100bn+) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e 17	0	1
Figure 4: GDP change % forecast for Midsize Eight (â‚¬100bn+) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009 18	0	1
Figure 5: GDP: Smaller Nine (â‚¬100bn-) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e 19	0	1
Figure 6: GDP change % forecast for Smaller Nine (â‚¬100bn-) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009 20	0	1
Figure 7: Consumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007 21	0	1
Figure 8: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of â‚¬18bn+ 2007 22	0	1
Figure 9: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of â‚¬18bn- 2007 22	0	1
Figure 10: Consumer expenditure as % of GDP 2007 23	0	1
Figure 11: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices â€“ annual average growth of Top 10 EU countries 2007 & 2008 26	0	1
Figure 12: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices â€“ countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages over 4.5% 2007 & 2008 27	0	1
Figure 13: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices â€“ countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages under 4.5% 2007 & 2008 28	0	1
Figure 14: Gross household saving % of gross household disposable income (latest data) 2007 29	0	1
Figure 15: ECB interest rates 2005-2009 31	0	1
Figure 16: Central bank annual averages for key reference interest rates 2008 33	0	1
Figure 17: Alsterhaus Hamburg 43	0	1
Figure 18: EU HICP â€“ monthly food price change May 2008-Apr 2009 (y-o-y) 56	0	1
Figure 19: Oil spot price FOB weighted by estimated export volume ($/ barrel) â€“ monthly Mar 2008 â€“ May 2009 58	0	1
Figure 20: Downward spiral of grocery prices in 2009 61	0	1

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