Global Trends in Fibre Prices, Production and Consumption, December 2008 - 2008/12/31 - Textiles Intelligence

Report title: Global Trends in Fibre Prices, Production and Consumption, December 2008

from Textiles Intelligence
29 page report published Dec 31, 2008

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World fibre production rose by 6.0% in 2007. The rise stemmed from an 8.5% increase in global man-made fibre output, which was driven mainly by growth in China and India. Synthetics accounted for most of the volume increase in global man-made fibres, led by polyester. In percentage terms, however, production of cellulosic fibres grew faster than that of synthetics. Output of natural fibres rose by only 2.6% in 2007. As a result, the gains in share of the previous two years were lost, and the share of natural fibres fell back to 40.6%. The 2.6% increase was driven mainly by a 2.8% rise in cotton demand. Wool consumption, by contrast, fell as a result of higher prices. The cotton price rose to a high of 80 cents/lb in March 2008 before falling back—due to market unrest—to 55 cents/lb by November 2008. For the 2007/08 crop year as a whole (August 1, 2007-July 31, 2008), the average price reached 73 cents/lb, 23.2% higher than in the previous year. However, there is little prospect of a further price increase in 2008/09 as long as concerns over weaker demand persist. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted in early December 2008 that demand would fall by 5.6%. This is somewhat steeper than the 0.5% drop recorded for 2007/08 and signals a major downturn. That said, output will fall too as farmers switch to more profitable alternative crops. As a result, cotton stocks will fall. But the reduction in stocks will not be sufficient to increase prices. Consequently, the average cotton price is expected to fall from 73 cents/lb in 2007/08 to 69 cents/lb in 2008/09. Wool prices have fallen dramatically from a peak of A$10.29 per kg (US$9.07 per kg) in January 2008—reaching A$7.64 per kg in November 2008. Again, the fall reflects concern over future demand levels. Stocks have fallen too although the stock position is not a cause for concern. While consumption of wool fibre remains strong in China, it is being depressed elsewhere by the restructuring of the textile industries in industrialised countries. Prices are therefore likely to remain stable in 2008/09. Stocks, meanwhile, are expected to fall a little further from levels reached in 2007/08 as demand marginally exceeds supply.

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Textiles Intelligence

Document ID:

TOI 137 Fibre Trends

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Title	Starting Page	Number of Pages
Sections
SUMMARY	5	1
SUMMARY	5	1
GENERAL TRENDS	5	2
GENERAL TRENDS	5	2
Table 1: World fibre demand, 1982-2007	6	1
Table 1: World fibre demand, 1982-2007	6	1
COTTON	7	9
COTTON	7	9
GENERAL TRENDS IN WORLD COTTON PRICES, PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION	7	1
GENERAL TRENDS IN WORLD COTTON PRICES, PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION	7	1
Trends in cotton prices	7	1
Trends in cotton prices	7	1
Table 2: Trends in cotton prices , 1995-2008	8	1
Table 2: Trends in cotton prices , 1995-2008	8	1
Figure 1 Trends in cotton prices, 2001-08	9	1
Figure 1 Trends in cotton prices, 2001-08	9	1
Cotton supply and demand in the 2007/08 season	10	1
Cotton supply and demand in the 2007/08 season	10	1
Table 3: Trends in world cotton supply and demand, 2005/06-2008/09	11	1
Table 3: Trends in world cotton supply and demand, 2005/06-2008/09	11	1
Cotton supply and demand in the 2008/09 season	11	2
Cotton supply and demand in the 2008/09 season	11	2
REGIONAL PATTERNS OF COTTON SUPPLY AND DEMAND	13	1
REGIONAL PATTERNS OF COTTON SUPPLY AND DEMAND	13	1
Regional patterns of cotton supply: 2007/08	13	1
Regional patterns of cotton supply: 2007/08	13	1
Regional patterns of cotton supply: 2008/09	14	1
Regional patterns of cotton supply: 2008/09	14	1
Regional patterns of cotton demand: 2007/08	14	1
Regional patterns of cotton demand: 2007/08	14	1
Regional patterns of cotton demand: 2008/09	15	1
Regional patterns of cotton demand: 2008/09	15	1
WOOL	15	6
WOOL	15	6
WORLD WOOL PRICES, SUPPLY AND DEMAND	15	1
WORLD WOOL PRICES, SUPPLY AND DEMAND	15	1
Trends in wool prices	15	1
Trends in wool prices	15	1
Table 4: Trends in wool prices, 1995-2008	16	1
Table 4: Trends in wool prices, 1995-2008	16	1
Figure 2 Trends in wool prices, 2001-08	17	1
Figure 2 Trends in wool prices, 2001-08	17	1
Wool supply and demand in the 2008/09 season	18	1
Wool supply and demand in the 2008/09 season	18	1
Table 5: Trends in world wool supply and demand, 2005/06-2008/09	18	1
Table 5: Trends in world wool supply and demand, 2005/06-2008/09	18	1
REGIONAL PATTERNS OF WOOL SUPPLY AND DEMAND	19	1
REGIONAL PATTERNS OF WOOL SUPPLY AND DEMAND	19	1
Regional patterns of supply	19	1
Regional patterns of supply	19	1
Regional patterns of demand	20	1
Regional patterns of demand	20	1
MAN-MADE FIBRES	21	9
MAN-MADE FIBRES	21	9
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE CAPACITY	21	2
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE CAPACITY	21	2
Table 6: Estimated man-made fibre capacity by region, 1960-2009	22	1
Table 6: Estimated man-made fibre capacity by region, 1960-2009	22	1
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE CAPACITY UTILISATION	23	1
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE CAPACITY UTILISATION	23	1
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE	23	1
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE	23	1
Synthetic fibres	23	2
Synthetic fibres	23	2
Table 7: World production of nylon, polyester and acrylic, 1972-2007	24	1
Table 7: World production of nylon, polyester and acrylic, 1972-2007	24	1
Cellulosic fibres	24	1
Cellulosic fibres	24	1
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE PRODUCTION BY REGION AND FIBRE TYPE	25	1
TRENDS IN MAN-MADE FIBRE PRODUCTION BY REGION AND FIBRE TYPE	25	1
Regional trends in cellulosic fibres	25	2
Regional trends in cellulosic fibres	25	2
Table 8: Man-made fibre production by region and fibre type, 1979-2009	26	1
Table 8: Man-made fibre production by region and fibre type, 1979-2009	26	1
Regional trends in synthetic fibres	26	4
Regional trends in synthetic fibres	26	4
Figure 3 Geographical breakdown of world man-made fibre production, 2007	28	2
Figure 3 Geographical breakdown of world man-made fibre production, 2007	28	2
Table 9: Man-made fibre production by region, 1960-2007	28	2
Table 9: Man-made fibre production by region, 1960-2007	28	2

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Textiles Intelligence specialises in providing business information on the global fibre, textile and apparel industries. It was formed in 1992 as a spin-off from the Economist Intelligence Unit and the company now publishes more than 100 reports a year on the textile and apparel industry. Reports contain authoritative research-based information and statistical data – including details of markets for, and developments in, niche sectors such as technical textiles and performance apparel – and are used by senior executives, investors and strategists who need to understand all areas of the supply chain.

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