Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017 (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017 (Capital Markets Research)

Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017 (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017 (Capital Markets Research)
Published Dec 01, 2016
23 pages — Published Dec 01, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKDECEMBER 1, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Q4-2016s US$-denominated issuance of high-yield bonds is likely to advance by 24% annually, begin on page 12. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 11Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Many Upgrades in Europe, Downgrades in the US. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Sovereigns, inflation, Italy, jolt, Trumponomics, Lebanon, inflation, defaults, Italy, shareholders, DB, Saudi, M&A, subpar, Thailand, BP plc, UK, Allstate, ratings, OPEC.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 130 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 480 bp, it may approximate 500 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after October 2016s 5.6%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts it near 4.1% by the summer of 2017. Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 6.8% to a record $1.416 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -4.8% to $337 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2 DECEMBER 1, 2016 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEAR...

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TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Many Upgrades in Europe, Downgrades in the US.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  EDF metric complements widespread expectations of fewer defaults21
  Equities outsmart credit thus far in 201631
  Interest rate risks mar the issuance outlook41
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific56
  THE US51
    Friday, December 251
  Employment Report November51
    Time: 8:30 am51
    Forecast: 180,000 nonfarm payrolls, 4.9% unemployment rate51
    Exceptionally modest totals for new unemployment insurance claims point to continued labor market tightening. The 233,000 people who filed claims in the week ending November 12 is the fewest in 43 years. That trend indicates that employers are eager...51
    Monday, December 551
  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index November51
    Time: 10:00 am51
    Forecast: 55.151
    The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index looks to edge higher in November as consumer spending on services continues to advance at a steady pace. Real spending on services rose at least 2.5% in each of the past two quarters, avoiding the letdown seen in the m...51
    Tuesday, December 651
  Trade Balance October51
    Time: 8:30 am51
    Forecast: -$40.0 billion51
    Rising imports are expected to cause the US trade deficit to widen in October. Exports have been on a tear of late, adding 1.2% to real growth in the third quarter the largest contribution in 11 quarters. Yet that boost came before the latest run-up...51
  Productivity &Unit Labor Costs Third Quarter Final51
    Time: 8:30 am51
    Forecast: 3.2% productivity, 0.3% unit labor costs51
    The revision of third quarter productivity figures will likely confirm the strongest result of the past eight quarters. Positive effects from growing inventories and relatively restrained hiring growth has boosted output efficiency. Yet with product...51
  Factory Orders October51
    Time: 10:00 am51
    Forecast: 2.4%51
    A bulge in transportation sector orders is forecast to lead overall factory orders higher for the fourth consecutive month in October. Near-term business investment trends are looking solid after core capital goods orders rose 4.4% annualized in the ...51
    Friday, December 961
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment December Preliminary61
    Time: 10:00 am61
    Forecast: 94.061
    Consumer sentiment may rise to the highest level in seven-months in December, perhaps reflecting some of the same post-election optimism seen in the stock market. Prior to recent OPEC moves to tighten supply, consumers benefitted from gasoline prices...61
    Thursday, December 161
  Italy: GDP (Q3; 7:00 a.m. GMT)61
  Euro Zone: Unemployment (October; 10:00 a.m. GMT)61
    Friday, December 261
    Thursday, December 171
  South Korea Consumer Price Index November71
  South Korea Foreign Trade November71
    Friday, December 271
  South Korea GDP 2016Q371
  Australia Retail Sales October81
    Monday, December 581
  Japan Consumer Confidence November81
    Tuesday, December 581
  Australia Balance of Payments 2016Q381
  Taiwan Consumer Price Index November81
  Australia Monetary Policy December81
    Wednesday, December 781
  Australia GDP 2016Q381
  Malaysia Foreign Trade October91
  Taiwan Foreign Trade November91
  India Monetary Policy December91
    Thursday, December 891
  China Foreign Trade November91
  Japan GDP 2016Q391
  Australia Foreign Trade October91
    Friday, December 991
  Philippines Industrial Production October101
  Australia Housing Finance October101
  China Consumer Price Index November101
  China Producer Price Index November101
  Malaysia Industrial Production October101
The Long View114
  Credit spreads111
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 480 bp is somewhat less than what is predicted by the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, but it is wider than what might be inferred from a now below-trend VIX index. The implications for...111
  Through the first 48 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a 5.3% increase for investment-grade and an -8.4% drop for high-yield. US economic outlook121
  Asia Pacific132
Ratings Round-Up151
Ratings Round-Up151
Ratings Round-Up161
Market Data174
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications213

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Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017 (Capital Markets Research)" Dec 01, 2016. Alacra Store. Sep 23, 2020. <>
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Stocks to Guide Yields and Credit in 2017 (Capital Markets Research) Dec 01, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Sep 23, 2020 from <>
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