Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait (Capital Markets Research)

Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait (Capital Markets Research)
Published Dec 15, 2016
29 pages — Published Dec 15, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKDECEMBER 15, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to WaitCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Global Rating Outlook Lacks Vigor.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, An end to the tax deductibility of corporate interest expense may discourage LBOs begin on page 17.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh More Upgrades and Fewer Defaults.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: China, Italy, inflation, OPEC, guidance, sovereigns, inflation, Italy, jolt, Trumponomics, Lebanon, inflation, defaults, Italy, shareholders, DB, Saudi, M&A, subpar.. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 27Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 121 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 448 bp, it may approximate 525 bp by year-end 2017. Defaults US HY default rate: after November 2016s 5.6%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts it near 3.9% by 2H 2017.Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 6.0% to a record $1.418 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -4.6% to $337 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398Editors Note: This will be our last ...

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TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
More Upgrades and Fewer Defaults.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Funding needs of an aging population may dull any fiscal jolt21
  Consensus post-election GDP forecast hardly rises21
  Probable tax rate cuts drive post-election equity rally21
  Powerful equity rally limits high-yield defaults31
  VIX Index and EDF metric differ on the high-yield spread31
  Easing of market-making rules may thin spreads31
  Repatriation of cash will not spark a lift-off by cap ex41
Topic of the Week By Ben Garber, Economist, Moody s Capital Markets Research, Inc.54
  Moody s rating outlooks neither hot nor cold51
  US economic turn warns of restrained long-term prospects61
  M&A continues to drive rating review actions72
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific98
  THE US91
    Friday, December 1691
  Housing Starts &Building Permits November91
    Wednesday, December 2191
  Existing Home Sales November91
    Thursday, December 2291
  GDP Third Quarter (Third Estimate)91
  Durable Goods Orders November91
  Personal Income &Spending November91
  Leading Economic Indicators Index November101
    Friday, December 23101
  New Home Sales November101
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment December Final101
    Thursday, December 15111
  U.K.: Retail Sales (November; 9:30 a.m. GMT)111
    Friday, December 16111
  Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index (November; 10:00 a.m. GMT)111
  Euro Zone: External Trade (October; 10:00 a.m. GMT)121
  Russia: Monetary Policy (December; 11:30 a.m. GMT)121
    Friday, December 16121
  Singapore Foreign Trade November121
  Thailand Monetary Policy December131
    Monday, December 19131
  Japan Foreign Trade November131
    Tuesday, December 20131
  Japan Monetary Policy December131
    Wednesday, December 21131
  New Zealand Foreign Trade November131
    Thursday, December 22131
  New Zealand GDP 2016Q3131
    Friday, December 23141
  Singapore Industrial Production November141
  Taiwan Domestic Trade November141
  Taiwan Industrial Production November141
    Monday, December 26141
    Tuesday, December 27141
  South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index December141
  Japan Consumer Price Index November141
  Japan Employment Situation November151
  Japan Household Expenditures Survey November151
  Japan Housing Starts November151
    Wednesday, December 28151
  Japan Industrial Production November151
  Japan Retail Sales November151
    Thursday, December 29151
  Thailand Industrial Production November151
  South Korea Industrial Production November161
  South Korea Retail Sales November161
  Hong Kong Foreign Trade November161
    Friday, December 30161
  South Korea Consumer Price Index December161
  Thailand Private Consumption November161
  Thailand Foreign Trade November161
The Long View174
  Credit spreads171
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 448 bp is less than what is predicted by the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, but it is wider than what might be inferred from a now below-trend VIX index. The implications for liquidit...171
  Through the first 50 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a 4.3% increase for investment-grade and a -6.5% drop for high-yield. US economic outlook181
  Asia Pacific192
Ratings Round-Up211
Ratings Round-Up211
Ratings Round-Up221
Market Data234
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications273

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Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

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Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait (Capital Markets Research)" Dec 15, 2016. Alacra Store. Jan 24, 2021. <>
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Making Credit Great Again Still May Have to Wait (Capital Markets Research) Dec 15, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Jan 24, 2021 from <>
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