Report title: Investing in Ukraine: changing rules of the game
from Concorde Capital
32 page report published Nov 24, 2008

Price $1,000.00 available for immediate download
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About Concorde Capital

Over at least the next six months, we are going to see extremely low and economically unjustified valuations. The local Ukrainian stock market will lack the fuel for sustainable appreciation, if any, as funds unload their portfolios and some close altogether. By our estimates, the outflow from EM equity funds over November-December will reach USD 10 bln, increasing the total tally for the year to USD 50 bln. In this report we introduce recommendations for Ukrainian equities from our coverage universe. We set upsides assuming crossing the full spread and expected local currency depreciation of 15-20% next year - Upside Effective. Beta, Liquidity, Leverage, Upside Effective – we see these as keys to trading in the current BLUE market.

Source: Concorde Consulting
Document ID: cc64
Country: Ukraine
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Sections
TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
Investing in Ukraine part1.pdf123
Stocks vs. Bonds 21
Fixed income ideas 32
Equity ideas 53
Franchise value model (Approach 1) 81
Franchise value model (Approach 2) 91
Source: Concorde Capital research 91
Corporate solvency 101
Warning list 101
Early bond redemptions and maturities 121
Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics 131
Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics (continued) 141
Ukrainian equities key valuation metrics (continued) 151
Corporate profitability at historic high 161
Results by sector 161
APPENDIX 171
Estimation of market CoE 181
1) CoE derived from market-implied WACC. We fixed the date at October 27, 2008 to evaluate what cost of capital was built into market prices. 181
We selected a sample of the 29 most liquid stocks. During times of efficient market functioning, the basket of most liquid stocks should average in a relatively fair estimate of the WACC equity investors apply, mitigating possible over or undervaluation of181
We found that market WACC derived from stock prices is 38%, up from 22% at end-September and 11% in January. The cost of equity corresponding to 38% of the market derived WACC is 44%, given 22% average D/E for the stock basket. 181
Stock performance 191
Stock performance (continued) 201
Sector multiples 211
Sector multiples (continued) 221
Sector multiples (continued) 231
Investing in Ukraine part2 24 Nov 2008.pdf249
BLUE(1) picks 261
BUY list 261
SELL list 261
Ukrainian equities: recommendations 271
Ukrainian equities: recommendations (continued) 281
Forecast revision summary by sector 291
Key fundamental forecast revisions by company 301
Key fundamental forecast revisions by company (continued) 312

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