United Kingdom Telecommunications Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

United Kingdom Telecommunications Report

United Kingdom Telecommunications Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
United Kingdom Telecommunications Report
Published Jul 23, 2016
65 pages — Published Jul 23, 2016
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Core forecast and scenario analysis: The mobile sector is mature and highly saturated and operators have already moved away from aggressive customer-acquisition strategies to more nuanced, deepening strategies leveraging whatever abilities they have to offer converged services. Mobile has proved to be recession- proof in the past, but any slowdown in subscription addition growth rates would be offset by more sustainable revenue generation through converged services. ...Downside scenario analysis: Following the referendum, our Country Risk team downgraded the economic growth outlook for ---- from -.- to -.- . If consumers prove less inclined to spend on non-essential value-added non-voice services, lower margins would prompt some operators to exit the market or offload non-core assets, such as passive infrastructure (although the latter would be a long-overdue net positive, in our view). A potent - albeit distant - risk is that UK regulation moves so far out of sync with global norms that cross-border relationships would not be sustainable. ...Without EU-imposed quotas on energy sourcing, device imports and content creation/purchasing, UK telecoms players could become more profitable. The services sector would also benefit from light-touch regulation, benefiting data-centric businesses such as datacentres, the financial services industry and the media/content industries.

...Core scenario: Mobile, wireline and broadband subscription growth trends will not be affected by the prospects of Brexit as - with the exception of prices for international bandwidth and call roaming - the UK market is self-contained. The latter issues will have to be addressed through new trade agreements but, as a regional connectivity hub and a champion of affordability, we do not envisage the industry pursuing adverse pricing changes. ...However, some fine-tuning of legislation may be needed to ensure the UK s ability to operate independently but on fair and open terms with the European/global digital services markets. The extent of that fine-tuning will only become apparent as new global trade deals are negotiated throughout the next two years Downside scenario: European or global players such as Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Hutchison, Telefonica and Vodafone may consider selling their UK businesses if bilateral trade agreements prove unsatisfactory or - as Vodafone has threatened - move their headquarters to mainland Europe. Those likeliest to withdraw were planning to leave regardless of the outcome of the referendum, owing to the maturity and saturation of the market. ...Given the global, borderless nature of the digital services industry, the UK market will need to closely mirror regulatory and business practice models used elsewhere in the world. For that reason, it is likely there will be little significant change when Brexit is fulfilled.

...BMI View: As the European telecoms sector is closely modelled on the UK regime, we anticipate little impact on the domestic market for retail and wholesale voice, data, broadband and pay-TV services to arise from the country s potential withdrawal from the European Union. A post- Brexit competitive landscape would be little changed as the major players are already UK-focused while the regulator s long-term view of market development does not differ from the views of the European Commission. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "United Kingdom Telecommunications Report" Jul 23, 2016. Alacra Store. Oct 24, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/United-Kingdom-Telecommunications-Report-2026-2672>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). United Kingdom Telecommunications Report Jul 23, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 24, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/United-Kingdom-Telecommunications-Report-2026-2672>
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