United Kingdom Power Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

United Kingdom Power Report

United Kingdom Power Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
United Kingdom Power Report
Published Jul 23, 2016
82 pages — Published Jul 23, 2016
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Abstract:

The material impact of Brexit on our power forecasts - at this stage - is minimal. We do not anticipate major changes to regulation or climate targets (although meeting them remains a different matter) and maintain that electricity generation will grow by an annual average of just -.- between ---- and ----, with capacity growing by an annual average of -.- and consumption growing at -.- . ...The material impact of Brexit on our power forecasts - at this stage - is minimal. We do not anticipate major changes to regulation or climate targets (although meeting them remains a different matter) and maintain that electricity generation will grow by an annual average of just -.- between ---- and ----, with capacity growing by an annual average of -.- and consumption growing at -.- . We have left our forecasts for generation and capacity unchanged because they already reflect a failure to mobilise investment into conventional generation capacity, which will ensure supply margins remain tight over the next few years. ...The UK may be left with no other option than to extend the lives of remaining coal plants in the absence of other alternatives - reneging on its plan to shut all coal facilities by ----. The biggest upside is the new post-Brexit government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Theresa May, may decide to pursue fiscal stimulus measures in order to show the UK is still open for business and - with the government pushing ahead with flagship infrastructure projects such as Hinkley Point C and a new fleet of gas power plants.

...We have adopted a neutral stance on Brexit and have retained our already conservative forecasts for growth in electricity generation, consumption and capacity in the UK. This is because - although we expect delays to some investment decisions - investment in the conventional power sector has long been limited due to uncertainty about the direction of domestic energy policy and unattractive power plant economics. As such, the material impact of Brexit on our power forecasts - at this stage - is minimal. We do not anticipate major changes to regulation or climate targets (although meeting them remains a different matter) and maintain electricity generation will grow by an annual average of just -.- between ---- and ----, with capacity growing by an annual average of -.- and consumption growing at -.- . Gas will account for almost -- of electricity generation in ---- - driven by low European gas prices and the UK s plans to phase out coal capacity. ...We have left our forecasts for generation and capacity unchanged because they already reflect a failure to mobilise investment into conventional generation capacity, which will ensure supply margins remain tight over the next few years. With few conventional power projects moving out of planning and into the construction phase, we have long argued it is unclear as to how the government would realise its plans to draw GBP---bn into the power sector by the early ----s, and Brexit has cemented this view.

...With regards to the power mix, unless the government axes its environmental commitments (not our core view), there is no option other than to secure investment into new gas-fired capacity, offshore wind and new interconnections as the UK closes ageing coal and nuclear facilities. We expect the UK to follow through with plans to close all remaining coal capacity by ---- as most remaining plans are about -- years old, and the best case for new nuclear capacity is it will be delayed further. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
1755-716X
Country
Industry
Format:
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "United Kingdom Power Report" Jul 23, 2016. Alacra Store. Dec 04, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/United-Kingdom-Power-Report-2026-785>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). United Kingdom Power Report Jul 23, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 04, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/United-Kingdom-Power-Report-2026-785>
  
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