Ukraine Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Ukraine Shipping Report

Ukraine Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Ukraine Shipping Report
Published Jun 27, 2015
101 pages — Published Jun 27, 2015
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Abstract:

BMI View: As Ukraine s economy is headed for a second consecutive year of a major recession, ---- will be a tough year for Ukraine s shipping sector, with BMI predicting declines in container throughput at Ukraine s main ports of Odessa and Illichivsk. Box volumes in ---- will be negatively impacted by a projected second year of recession in Ukraine, with BMI forecasting real GDP to drop -.- following the estimated -.- decline in ----. ...Total tonnage throughput, however, will be supported at both ports by the projected increase in wheat production, with the two facilities both participating in the country s grain export supply chain. Ukraine s ports also stand to benefit from new cargo opportunities opening up, to develop their role in Ukraine s coal import logistics, as the country s domestic coal supply chains have been interrupted by the fighting in eastern Ukraine. As a result of the decline in deliveries of coal, a key fuel source for Ukraine s power sector, the country now has to import coal from South Africa. ...As a result of the decline in deliveries of coal, a key fuel source for Ukraine s power sector, the country now has to import coal from South Africa. The first delivery of imported coal into Ukraine happened at the end of ---- and its ports are projected to play a greater role in this supply chain.

...The economic situation in Ukraine and the continued hostility with Russia lead to downside risks for the country s shipping sector. Sharp depreciation of hryvnia for any extended period would place severe pressure on households who would see their savings and purchasing power sharply reduced overnight, thus dampening already slowing retail sales and pushing up inflation. This, in turn, would affect the country s imports, which creates further downside risk to our port throughput forecasts for the country. The resumption of a years-long conflict over the port of Illichivsk s container terminal creates downside risk to our box throughput forecast for the port, which still struggles to recover from a --.- drop in container throughput it suffered in ----. Our current projections indicate that the facility will not be able to recapture the ---,--- TEUs it handled in ---- over the medium term. At the Port of Odessa we highlight upside risks to our medium term forecast, with the Quarantine Mole project - being developed by German/Ukrainian port operator HPC Ukraina - currently underway and the first stage completed in ----. Eventually, the terminal will provide the port with two new container berths and a draught of --m, allowing it to cater for the larger container vessels, which we believe is vital as the current trend in the container shipping sector is for lines to use bigger ships.

...It remains to be seen whether Kiev will be able to push through all of the necessary, yet likely highly unpopular, structural economic reforms needed to make the economy competitive over the long run. The new government is likely to have to pass long-overdue unpopular economic reforms that could destroy its support base. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
2040-9923
Country
Industry
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Ukraine Shipping Report" Jun 27, 2015. Alacra Store. Dec 05, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Ukraine-Shipping-Report-2026-1004>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Ukraine Shipping Report Jun 27, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 05, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Ukraine-Shipping-Report-2026-1004>
  
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