Ukraine Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Ukraine Business Forecast Report

Ukraine Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Ukraine Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
52 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
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...The main argument for arming Kiev is that it would contain or even roll back the separatist rebels, thus increasing the costs for Russia of supporting them. ...The sharp fall of the rouble to a record low of RUB--/USD is reflective of this, and it is now the second-worst performing cur- rency (after the Ukrainian hryvnia) against the dollar thus far in ----, with a loss of -- . Although Russian President Vladimir -- Business Monitor International Ltd www ukraine Q- ---- Putin s popularity is at an all-time high of -- and Russians appear willing to tolerate a degree of economic adversity for the sake of pursuing geopolitical interests in Ukraine, we believe that economic weakness (both in Ukraine and Russia) could eventually prompt renewed peace talks. Even so, we cannot preclude that some hardliners in the US actually favour creating circumstances in which Russia would become bogged down in an expensive and militarily costly conflict in Ukraine, since this would weaken the Russian Fed- eration over the long term. Nonetheless, these voices are likely to be in a minority, given that any extended conflict in Eastern Europe, alongside a growing American commitment to the war on the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), would detract from Washington s long-stated goal of pivoting towards the Asia-Pacific region. Long-term political outlook eastern separatism to persist, While

...Ukraine will emerge weaker from the ---- conflict, losing de facto con- trol of the separatist East to pro-Moscow forces. Even without the con- flict, President Petro Porwoshenko faces colossal challenges in avert- ing economic crisis, tackling corruption, and reforming the economy. ...Attempts to integrate with the EU will prove to be a long process�one that will continue well into the ----s. core scenario: autonomous entity to emerge in eastern ukraine Our core scenario envisages the conflict eventually coming to a halt and Kiev accepting some form of de facto autonomy for the separatist-minded Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. This may well be the result of the Ukrainian government having to accept that it cannot defeat the Russian-backed rebellion. ...Eastern -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook a Weaker outlook long term Political score f = forecast.

...Regardless of an escalation of fighting, we believe that the endgame remains a stalemate in which the separatist regions stay beyond Kiev s control, but may have a veto power over matters of national importance, such as Ukraine s relationship with the EU and NATO. Russia s biggest concern in Ukraine is to halt the country s drift towards the West. ...At the same time, the rebels lack the means to make major gains without Russian support. It is also striking that despite widespread pro-Russian sentiment in Eastern Ukraine (as evi- denced by very strong support for the pro-Russian ousted former president Viktor Yanukovych in the ---- presidential election), separatist activity has failed to emerge in eastern cities such as Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, and Zaparozhye. The rebels do not even control the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Ukraine Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Oct 20, 2016. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Ukraine Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 20, 2016 from <>
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