Turkey Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Turkey Business Forecast Report

Turkey Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Turkey Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
54 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
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Budget balance, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Goods and services exports, USDbn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Goods and services imports, USDbn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Balance of trade in goods and services, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Current account balance, USDbn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Current account balance, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Import cover, months -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National sources, BMI - Business Monitor International Ltd www Turkey Q- ---- executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk index - Domestic politics - rising security risks in all Directions Turkey will largely exclude itself from the fight against the Islamic State, as it sees greater dangers from joining the US coalition than from taking a passive stance. This will jeopardise the government s peace talks with Kurdish PKK separatists and exacerbate domestic social tensions. ...In terms of foreign policy, we expect Turkey to continue rebalancing its interests away from the West in favour of closer ties with former Soviet Union states, the Middle East and North Africa. chapter -: economic outlook -- sWot analysis -- BMi economic risk index -- economic activity -- outlook improving, But slower trend Growth still Lies ahead Abundant global liquidity and falling oil prices have bolstered Turkey s short-term economic outlook, but a transition to slower, more balanced growth relative to the past decade will continue as the country s external rebalancing process has much further to run. We forecast real GDP growth of -.- and -.- in ---- and ---- respectively. ...This has contributed to our view that Turkey will not join the EU anytime over our forecast horizon, eliminating a key policy anchor. table: lonG-terM MacroeconoMic forecasts -- chapter -: operational risk -- sWot analysis -- operational risk -- operational risk --

...Various local and international media outlets have reported a significant recruitment and logistical presence of IS within Turkey. ...It is widely accepted that Turkey helped fuel the rise of IS by allowing fighters and equipment to flow relatively unimpeded across its border in the early days of the Syrian uprising against Assad. Among Turkey s Kurdish population, there is also a widespread conviction that the government continues to actively support IS with the explicit goal of weakening Kurdish enclaves in Northern Syria, which have gained semi-autonomous status in recent years on the back of an implicit truce between Kurdish militias in Northern Syria (YPG) and Assad. saving pKK peace process entails other risks One such enclave, the Syrian border town of Kobani, is cur- rently under siege by IS and the hesitancy of Ankara to aid in its defence or allow supplies and Kurdish fighters to cross the border became a flashpoint of anger and unrest, dealing a set- back to Turkish-Kurdish relations. ...The Kobani concession has helped quell domestic Kurdish protest and prevent a breakdown in peace talks with the PKK for now, but additional pressure points are sure to emerge in the coming quarters. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook rising security risks

...-- of the northern part of the island, but the TRNC is unrec- ognised internationally. The Cyprus dispute remains one of the most intractable in the world. ...The two countries developed a close military and intelligence alliance in the ----s, as both sought to counterbalance the Iran-Syria alliance. However, Turko-Israeli ties have worsened steadily since Recep Tayyip Erdoan became Turkey s leader (first as prime minister in ----, and then as president in August ----), as he sought to boost ties with Arab and Muslim states and has championed the Palestinian cause. Relations hit a nadir in ---- after Israeli commandos raided a Turkish aid flotilla seeking to break Israel s blockade of Gaza, resulting in the deaths of Turkish nationals. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Turkey Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Oct 24, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Turkey-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1647>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Turkey Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 24, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Turkey-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1647>
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