Thailand Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Thailand Business Forecast Report

Thailand Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Thailand Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
52 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
Price US$ 1,195.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

Source: Bloomberg, BMI military rule in ----, Thailand experienced several short-lived coalition governments. The situation stabilised in the early part of the --st century under former premier Thaksin Shinawatra from ---------. ...The situation stabilised in the early part of the --st century under former premier Thaksin Shinawatra from ---------. However, growing opposition to his rule led to a military coup (the --th including seven attempted coups since the country became a constitutional monarchy in ----) in September ----, demonstrating that there is an inherent instability in the system that has yet to be rectified. Following the ---- military coup, the confrontation between the pro-Thaksin (Red Shirts) and anti-Thaksin (Yellow Shirts) movements escalated and culminated in a series of large-scale street protests that occasionally turned violent. ...Looking at the subcomponent breakdown of the index, the country scores --.- for characteristic of polity , --.- for characteristic of society , --.- for scope of state and --.- for policy continuity . With the constitutional framework still on shaky ground and no clear path towards reconciliation between the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts, it is difficult to envision

...Domestic - risk of renewed political instability While Thailand s military leaders have taken tentative steps to restore civilian rule, a return to a well-functioning democracy is far from assured. The political divide will remain unresolved and the potential for renewed instability will continue to undermine the country s long-term economic growth potential. ...on balance, we hold a neutral outlook for the Thai baht, and are forecasting the currency to average THB--.--/USD in ---- and end ---- at about THB--.--/USD. taBle: current account -- taBle: currency forecast -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www contents chapter -: ---Year Forecast -- the thai economy to ---- -- politics a Headwind, But Won t prevent solid ongoing political uncertainty, deteriorating demographic trends, and a lack of reform momentum are likely to undermine Thailand s real GDP growth over the next decade, although we still believe that solid growth rates are achievable assuming no major deterioration on the political front. We project real GDP growth to average -.- annually (from -.- previously) over the next decade, versus the annual average growth rate of -.- over the past decade. ...We project real GDP growth to average -.- annually (from -.- previously) over the next decade, versus the annual average growth rate of -.- over the past decade. TaBle: lonG-TerM MaCroeConoMIC ForeCaSTS -- chapter -: operational risk -- operational risk -- operational risk -- taBle: oPerational risk -- transport network -- taBle: transPort -- economic openness --

... With the military currently in charge, there is a risk that it will seek to install a government that does not have the backing of the Red Shirts, which could set the stage for an escalation of violence. ...Thailand s rank and file military is not necessarily as aligned with the establishment as it once was, and even though a full blown civil war would still be a worst case scenario, it cannot be ruled out. ...But solutions are available From a business environment and economic standpoint, we believe that the best-case scenario would be for reforms to take place in the political system that reduced the power of politi- cians to influence economic winners and losers, thus eliminating the winner takes all nature of the political system, and cutting down corruption. Shrinking the size of the state would reduce the poorer provinces reliance on handouts from Bangkok, while limiting corruption and accelerating economic growth. ...

  
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Document ID
1744-8808
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Thailand Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Dec 04, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Thailand-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1646>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Thailand Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 04, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Thailand-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1646>
  
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