Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report
Published May 26, 2015
37 pages — Published May 26, 2015
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Abstract:

Sudan s presidential and parliamentary elections, held from April --- --, amount to an exercise in rubber-stamping by the ruling National Congress Party and are a nail in the coffin for hopes of political re- form. While political tensions will rise amid growing opposition mo- mentum and conflict will persist in key trouble spots, the regime s grip on power, though weakened, will remain firm. ...With the main opposition parties excluded, we ex- pect political tensions to remain high, and for conflict in trouble spots such as South Kordofan and Blue Nile states to continue. at Least Five More Years of al-Bashir Sudan s presidential and parliamentary elections staged on April ----- will bring little meaningful change to the political status quo, namely a further five years in office for ---year old President al-Bashir who swept to power in ---- (see Elections A Mere Formality , January --). While the election was ongoing at the time of writing following a one-day extension, we expect that the ruling NCP will have won most if not all of the -- of the seats it opted to contest, leaving it in complete control of the country s legislature. ...As a result we see little prospect of US sanctions against Sudan being lifted any time soon. This along with an economy in the doldrums and what will be continue to be an uncertain and volatile political security climate will continue to undermine confidence and deter new investment.

...political outlook suggest that a lasting power sharing arrangement that involves both Kiir and Machar may be unworkable given the deep-seated hostility that exists between the two men. ...In a sign of increased desperation, Riek Machar is seeking to raise funds through demanding visa payments from aid workers entering rebel ter- ritory, according to Africa Confidential. For the government, insecurity and repeated unplanned supply outages saw oil production fall to an estimated ---,--- barrels per day (bpd) in ---- � over -- lower than before the crisis � and these factors, along with an untimely collapse in global oil prices � will weigh heavily on the government s ability to raise revenue. Given that oil revenue is the country s primary source of foreign exchange, this has led to an increasing scarcity of hard currency that is making it increasingly costly, in many cases prohibitively so, for consumers and businesses to import essential goods. ...

...Sudan has a legacy of civil war, and lingering tensions between the north and south. outbreaks of violence are ongoing over the exploitation of the country s vast oil reserves and the administration of revenues. ...Conflict continues in the western region of Darfur, and several other areas are flashpoints for confrontation. Sudan is largely a pariah in the international community owing to alleged atrocities in Darfur � notwithstanding strong relations with China � and an arrest warrant has been issued by the international Criminal Court for President omar al-Bashir. South Sudan enjoys better relations with the international community, but violence in the northern border regions, as well as intereth- nic rivalries which sometimes escalate, is cause for concern. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
1757-076X
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report" May 26, 2015. Alacra Store. Dec 04, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Sudan-and-South-Sudan-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1727>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report May 26, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 04, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Sudan-and-South-Sudan-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1727>
  
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