...While we maintain our forecast of a -.- growth in passenger cars for ----, we believe sales will decline -.- in ---- as the market adjusts to the removal of the subsidy. ...At its inception, the latest PIVE programme was designed to include a gradual phase out of subsidies to be implemented after the programmes expiry in July ----; however, political gridlock has prevented this. Since Country Risk expects a further period of political deadlock following the election in June ----, we are, thus, now factoring into our forecasts a complete offend to purchasing subsidies for the industry from July -- ---- through to at least ---- with limited scope for further purchasing subsidies for petrol and diesel powered passenger cars being introduced in ----. This will have a measurable negative impact on car sales to households given that the estimated -,---,--- passenger cars sold through the programme accounted for more than --.- of all cars sold between October ---- when the programme began to May ----. ...In addition to this fast growth we also highlight that at these volumes sales are still well below past highs for the corporate sales channel.
...We forecast vehicle sales to reach almost -.--mn units in ----, which represents growth of -.- , followed by a -.- decline in ----. Modest economic recovery will continue boosting private car sales to corporate fleets in ---- and ---- but the removal PIVE purchasing subsidies in July ---- will slow down consumer demand for cars in Q--- while a drop in tourist arrivals from the UK following the UK s decision to leave the EU drags on rental car company purchases in ----. ...We forecast vehicle sales to reach almost -.--mn units in ----, which represents growth of -.- , followed by a -.- decline in ----. Modest economic recovery will continue boosting private car sales to corporate fleets in ---- and ---- but the removal PIVE purchasing subsidies in July ---- will slow down consumer demand for cars in Q--- while a drop in tourist arrivals from the UK following the UK s decision to leave the EU drags on rental car company purchases in ----. Breaking down our forecast, we expect passenger car sales to expand -.- in ---- and commercial vehicles to expand at a faster rate of -.- . In ----, passenger car sales will decline - compared to a further -.- expansion in commercial vehicle. While the passenger car market suffers from the withdrawal of purchasing subsidies from Q--- onwards, commercial vehicles will continue to benefit from an uptick in capital expenditures of businesses and lower base effects.
...Over our full forecast period to ----, we expect vehicle sales growth to average -.- . This weak growth compared to the ---- to ---- period will be the result of purchasing subsidies being wound back and Spain s anaemic economic growth failing to create new levels of demand beyond just the cyclical demand upswing associated with the high need for vehicle replacement. ...Over our full forecast period to ----, we expect vehicle sales growth to average -.- . This weak growth compared to the ---- to ---- period will be the result of purchasing subsidies being wound back and Spain s anaemic economic growth failing to create new levels of demand beyond just the cyclical demand upswing associated with the high need for vehicle replacement. Breaking this long-term forecast down, we forecast passenger car sales to increase at an average rate of -.- to -.--mn units by ---- while commercial vehicles rise on an annual average of -.- to more than ---,--- units. ...
