"Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015" - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

"Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015"

"Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015" - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
"Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015"
Published Jul 23, 2015
49 pages — Published Jul 23, 2015
Price US$ 1,195.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

...After experi- encing an economic boom and averaging real GDP growth of -.- in the period ---- to ----, we expect real GDP growth in Serbia to average -.- from ---- to ----. ...In particular, we highlight the unresolved issue of Mitrovica, north of the Ibar River, which is nominally part of Kosovo but is majority Serbian and maintains close ties to Serbia. The agreement between the two states in April ---- will do much to advance Serbia down the path of EU accession, however, the country still refuses to acknowledge Kosovo as an independent state, and has ensured a degree of autonomy in policy-making for Serb dominated areas in Kosovo. Policy Uncertainty: The long-term policy trajectory of Serbia is also highly uncertain. ...Moreover, with a consensus regarding Serbia s long-term economic and political trajectory largely absent, the domestic political arena is likely to remain divided over the course of our forecast period. This poses key risks to policy implementation and continuity.

...The divided nature of Serbian politics means that economic and political reform may be hard to secure as the need to maintain popular domestic support trumps the need for politically un- popular measures aimed at improving the country s long-term prospects. What is more, with little chance of fundamental -- Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com ...Greater foreign investment would improve Serbia s eco- nomic growth prospects and present the opportunity to bring down high unemployment levels. Likelihood: - Scenario two: reforms With independence We also highlight the sequence of events whereby Serbia undertakes structural economic and political reforms in order to modernise its economy but refrains from pursuing eventual entry into the EU. We believe that Serbia will likely be forced to implement economic and political reforms in order to attract foreign investment to its economy over the long term regard- less of EU pressure. ...Having to mend fences with Kosovo in order to gain entry into the EU has not proven a bridge too far for domestic politicians, but we believe that the state of relations with Kosovo will remain a sensitive political issue.

...Source: BMI to the extent that it poses a threat to Vucic s term in power ending in ----. Vucic still remains the most popular politician in Serbia. ...The survey result lends weight to our view that the opposition to the govern- ment remains weak and divided, too weak to organise public opposition to the cabinet, and as such is unable to challenge and oust Vucic out of power. In addition, in order to offset the negative impact of his auster- ity measures on his popularity, Vucic has undertaken a more hardline nationalist stance on foreign policy, which resonates with the public, most prominently with respect to relations with Kosovo, Serbia s former province. While good for his image domestically, however, his hardline stance will have negative implications for Serbia s path towards EU integration. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
2041-6768
Format:
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. ""Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015"" Jul 23, 2015. Alacra Store. Dec 10, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Serbia-Montenegro-and-Kosovo-Country-Risk-Report-Q4-2015-2026-1788>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). "Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Country Risk Report Q4 2015" Jul 23, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 10, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Serbia-Montenegro-and-Kosovo-Country-Risk-Report-Q4-2015-2026-1788>
  
US$ 1,195.00
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