Rwanda Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Rwanda Country Risk Report

Rwanda Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Rwanda Country Risk Report
Published May 26, 2015
27 pages — Published May 26, 2015
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Abstract:

The wheels are in motion for a referendum on presidential term limits and a third spell in office for President Paul Kagame. While ongoing violence in Burundi, following President Nkurunziza s declaration that he will stand for a third term might give pause for thought, we believe that Kagame enjoys sufficient support that such an outbreak in Rwanda is unlikely. ...As a result, there have been increasing calls for a referendum on the issue of term limits by people supporting a third Kagame term. In May, a church group called the Forum for Churches became the latest to present a petition calling for a referendum, presenting a petition to parliament. the Reluctant statesman According to Donatille Mukabalisa, speaker of the Rwandan parliament, legislators will look into petitions, and the issue will be on the agenda of the next parliamentary session, due to start on June -. We expect a referendum will be held, and that Kagame will continue to play the reluctant statesman that is swept along by the people s desire that he continues in office. ...Behind the scenes, Kagame and the RPF has also worked to make a third term more likely, with no potential successor allowed to have built up any level of support within the party. An internal purge in August and September ---- saw a number of senior former military figures within the party removed (see Crackdown Implies Third Term

...The RPF might have been given pause for thought by recent events across the border in neighbouring Burundi. President Nkurunziza s decision to stand for a third term � he claims that this is within the constitution as he was elected to his first by parliament rather than through an election � has resulted in days of violence, and some --,--- refugees fleeing into Rwanda. ...However, the circumstances, while similar, are not quite the same. We believe the president is popular enough on both sides of the ethnic divide � owing to his political and economic achievements while in power � to win the referendum and a third presidential term, without seeing an outbreak of violence the like of which is ongoing in Burundi. Further, while Kagame and the RPF have shown increasing signs of authoritarianism, and the president is known to brook little dissent, putting the issue to the people by way of a referendum will give the constitutional change the legality it needs. ...This is largely owing to an impressive rate of economic expansion (albeit from a very low base) since the end of the civil war, as well as the successful implementation of agricultural programmes which have reduced the country s reliance on food imports. Chapter -: economic outlook s-t economic trend Regional

...core Views We forecast a real GDP expansion of -.- in Rwanda in ---- and -.- in ----. Growth in the small East African country returned to trend levels last year when a -.- increase was recorded � fol- lowing the below-par -.- expansion recorded in ---- � and we expect that a similar level will be maintained over our medium-term forecast period to ----. ...

  
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Document ID
2049-2448
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Rwanda Country Risk Report" May 26, 2015. Alacra Store. Dec 09, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Rwanda-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1640>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Rwanda Country Risk Report May 26, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 09, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Rwanda-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1640>
  
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