Russia Freight Transport and Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Russia Freight Transport and Shipping Report

Russia Freight Transport and Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Russia Freight Transport and Shipping Report
Published Jul 23, 2016
57 pages — Published Jul 23, 2016
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Abstract:

BMI View: Following a disastrous ----, in which trade dropped off at an even faster rate than in ----, due to low oil prices being exacerbated by sanctions, we expect a recovery in Russian trade to begin in ----, and that growth will remain positive through the course of our medium-term forecast period to ----. This return to growth is a positive for the freight transport sector, especially as firms have struggled to remain profitable and have postponed capital expenditure plans until market conditions improve. ...BMI View: Following a disastrous ----, in which trade dropped off at an even faster rate than in ----, due to low oil prices being exacerbated by sanctions, we expect a recovery in Russian trade to begin in ----, and that growth will remain positive through the course of our medium-term forecast period to ----. This return to growth is a positive for the freight transport sector, especially as firms have struggled to remain profitable and have postponed capital expenditure plans until market conditions improve. There will be an expansion in road freight volumes in ----, following three years of contractions. ...However, growth will be slow, albeit outpacing real GDP growth over the medium term. Throughput at St Petersburg will return to growth in ----, following three consecutive years of contractions for container handling, although a weak outlook for consumer demand in the near term will pose downside risks.

...Israel is one of the top priorities of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the Russia-led trade pact, in terms of the countries with which the organisation will seek to establish free trade pacts. According to Veronika Nikishina, the minister of trade for the EEU, it is possible that a deal will be reached within the next -- months. This would give Israel preferential access to a host of countries, boosting the country s trade and freight transport sector. We forecast Russia s current account surplus to remain relatively stable, around -.- of GDP, in the coming years, which will be crucial in supporting the country s sovereign profile in light of weak growth and wider fiscal deficits. The surplus surged to a seven-year high of -.- of GDP in ---- as the impact of lower oil prices on exports was outweighed by the contraction of imports resulting from the country s ongoing recession. ...We forecast oil prices to trade in a range of USD----- per barrel (bbl) in H---, after falling as low as USD--.-/bbl in early ----. In this way, Russia s surplus is reflective of its very weak macroeconomic backdrop.

...There are broad-based signs that Russia s recession is bottoming out in the early stages of ----. Industrial production and real wages posted positive y-o-y growth readings in Q--- for the first time in over a year, while purchasing managers indices also hint at a gradual recovery, particular in the services sector. ...

  
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Russia Freight Transport and Shipping Report" Jul 23, 2016. Alacra Store. Dec 10, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Russia-Freight-Transport-and-Shipping-Report-2026-1905>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Russia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Jul 23, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 10, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Russia-Freight-Transport-and-Shipping-Report-2026-1905>
  
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