Romania Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Romania Business Forecast Report

Romania Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Romania Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
52 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
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Abstract:

The strength and quality of Romania s political institutions fall short rel- ative to much of Europe, implying significant challenges ahead despite the progress made since the fall of communism. With membership of the euro still looking like a distant prospect, and EU influence on Ro- mania s political trajectory at risk of slowing, there is a growing risk of institutional stagnation, which could jeopardise some of the improve- ments made over the last two decades. ...There is evidence to suggest that this shift towards populism is already underway, with the ruling PSD administration retaining popular support thanks to its largely anti-austerity rhetoric (and despite the government remaining committed to fiscal prudence in practice). Yet a putative shift away from the EU s sphere of influence is by no means given, since Romania still relies heav- ily on multilateral (mainly EU-IMF) support to help it address many of the country s long-term challenges, demonstrated by the agreement of a third successive precautionary loan arrangement with the IMF in late-----. Below, we outline what those chal- lenges are, and the potential scenarios for Romania s political outlook over the next decade. ...A big challenge for future governments if they want to keep the likes of the EU, IMF and World Bank on board will be to convince them that they are committed to tackling corruption and entrenching democratic institutions. Failure to do so would not only make it harder to effectively utilise multilateral sup- -- Business Monitor International Ltd www Romania Q- ---- numbers shrinking wold Bank Population Forecasts, mn Source: BMI, World Bank eu convergence to continue

...The victory of opposition candidate Klaus Iohannis was not expected by analysts. Successive opinion polls suggested Ponta was on course for a comfortable victory in the second round runoff. ...These factors suggest public disputes over the direction of fiscal policy are likely to continue over the coming quarters. Taken together, we believe Iohannis s victory means the role of the president will remain broadly limited to foreign and defence policy, and controlling appointments of the judiciary and prosecutors. A Ponta victory would have enabled the PSD to tighten its grip on power, and his failure to win will probably boost hopes that Romania will do more to prosecute corrupt officials in the future. ...A Ponta victory would have enabled the PSD to tighten its grip on power, and his failure to win will probably boost hopes that Romania will do more to prosecute corrupt officials in the future. - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook ponta Loss Bad For path of romanian policy Making

...Source: BMI port, but could eventually lead to these bodies cutting off useful financing. This would only serve to increase the electorate s distrust in their political institutions, and increase the appeal of extremist political rhetoric. ...

  
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Romania Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Dec 08, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Romania-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1639>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Romania Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 08, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Romania-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1639>
  
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