Portugal Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Portugal Business Forecast Report

Portugal Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Portugal Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
34 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
Price US$ 1,195.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

Budget balance, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Goods and services exports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Goods and services imports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Balance of trade in goods and services, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Current account balance, USDbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Current account balance, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Import cover, months -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- f,e =BMI forecast, estimate. Source: Banco de Portugal, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica/BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk index - Domestic politics - Fiscal targets to remain out of reach We expect Portugal s budget deficit to remain elevated in --------- due to weaker export growth and a populist policy agenda ahead of general elections in ----, which will limit spending cuts. ...Budget balance, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Goods and services exports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Goods and services imports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Balance of trade in goods and services, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Current account balance, USDbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Current account balance, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Import cover, months -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- f,e =BMI forecast, estimate. Source: Banco de Portugal, Instituto Nacional de Estatistica/BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk index - Domestic politics - Fiscal targets to remain out of reach We expect Portugal s budget deficit to remain elevated in --------- due to weaker export growth and a populist policy agenda ahead of general elections in ----, which will limit spending cuts. We further caution that Banco Espirito Santo s ongoing bailout presents a significant risk to Portugal s debt and fiscal metrics from ---- onwards. ...We are forecasting an economy more reliant on external demand and investment and less on private consumption over the coming decade, but the future will depend in large part on the government s reform programme bearing fruit. taBle: lonG-term macroeconomic forecasts -- - Business Monitor International Ltd www contents chapter -: operational risk -- sWot analysis -- operational risk -- chapter -: Key sectors -- renewables --

...The recent assessment by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission issued at end-October has lent support to our view that the momentum behind the government s austerity drive is on the wane. The IMF/EC officials stated that the pace of reform appears to have diminished considerably since the end of (Portugal s bailout) programme, in some cases reversing past achievements . ...A group of subordinate bondholders filed early November a legal challenge to Portugal s Central Bank over the restructuring of the distressed lender. While the lawsuit will likely continue for at least six months, it is possible that the bad bank pushes the state s contingent liabilities higher, implying a significant risk that Portugal s borrowing costs could spike in ----, which would make it even more difficult for the government to meet its fiscal targets. This, along with subdued growth prospects, will increase public debt levels, which already exceed --- of GDP, exacerbating further investor perceptions of the sustainability of Portugal s fiscal and debt metrics, and sending bond yields even higher. ...This, along with subdued growth prospects, will increase public debt levels, which already exceed --- of GDP, exacerbating further investor perceptions of the sustainability of Portugal s fiscal and debt metrics, and sending bond yields even higher. We believe that ultimately the European Central Bank will step in to stave off a sharp decline in market confidence in the

...We expect Portugal s budget deficit to remain elevated in --------- due to weaker export growth and a populist policy agenda ahead of general elections in ----, which will limit spending cuts. We further caution that Banco Espirito Santo s ongoing bailout presents a signifi- cant risk to Portugal s debt and fiscal metrics from ---- onwards. ...

  
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2040-6312
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Portugal Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Dec 09, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Portugal-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1637>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Portugal Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 09, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Portugal-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1637>
  
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