< ALACRA META ABSTRACT>BMI View: The Peruvian freight transport and shipping sectors have been bolstered by improving fundamental - particularly the buoyant levels of private consumption - which should translate to positive growth for trade activity in ---- and over the medium term to ----. As such, national haulage volumes across the freight modes are on an upward trend, with the notable exception of rail freight - where a systematic decline continues. ...Recent progress in Peru s trade agreements will drive growth over the coming years and also beyond our forecast period. Accounting for more than -- of market share, road freight will continue to dominate the freight mix in ----; however, due to modest economic growth, road freight growth will be modest over our forecast period, despite investment into road infrastructure benefiting supply chains. Air freight will see the greatest growth over ---- and over the medium term, as the sector will benefit from rising demand for consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals in Peru - though its share of the total freight mix will remain comparatively small. ...Air freight will see the greatest growth over ---- and over the medium term, as the sector will benefit from rising demand for consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals in Peru - though its share of the total freight mix will remain comparatively small. Rail freight is forecast to continue its contraction in ---- and over the medium term until ---- as waning demand for copper continues to weigh on growth.
...We forecast GDP growth of -.- in Peru in ----, which is an improvement on the ---- estimate of -.- . The modest recovery in economic growth is driven by stronger household spending and consumer demand as well as a recovery in the construction sector over ---- and ----. ...We forecast GDP growth of -.- in Peru in ----, which is an improvement on the ---- estimate of -.- . The modest recovery in economic growth is driven by stronger household spending and consumer demand as well as a recovery in the construction sector over ---- and ----. However, construction sector growth will still be lower than previously expected and weak mining sector exports will continue to weigh on growth. ...Agricultural exports will experience strong growth and will remain a bright spot in the trade balance. Export growth is a result of the continued strong demand from the US and Europe for cocoa and its derivatives, which include cocoa butter, chocolate, cocoa paste, cocoa powder, ice cream, cocoa peel and cocoa oil.
...Over the longer term, we believe recent progress on Peru s trade agenda provides an upside risk to our forecast. Peru currently has -- free trade agreements (FTAs) in force and three more are currently in negotiation. ...
