Peru Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Peru Business Forecast Report

Peru Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Peru Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
52 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
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Abstract:

Budget balance, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Goods and services exports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Goods and services imports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Balance of trade in goods and services, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Current account balance, USDbn --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Current account balance, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Import cover, months --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk index - Domestic politics - pnp increasingly Vulnerable to ---- Defeat Slowing economic growth will continue to weigh on the popularity of Peruvian President Ollanta Humala in the coming months, leaving his centre-left Partido Nacionalista Peruano vulnerable to defeat in the ---- presidential elections. ...Budget balance, of GDP -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- Goods and services exports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Goods and services imports, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Balance of trade in goods and services, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Current account balance, USDbn --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- --.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- ---.- Current account balance, of GDP --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- Import cover, months --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- --.- e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI executive summary - core Views Major Forecast changes Key risks to outlook chapter -: political outlook - sWot analysis - BMi political risk index - Domestic politics - pnp increasingly Vulnerable to ---- Defeat Slowing economic growth will continue to weigh on the popularity of Peruvian President Ollanta Humala in the coming months, leaving his centre-left Partido Nacionalista Peruano vulnerable to defeat in the ---- presidential elections. taBle: Political overview - Long-term political outlook - Mining Disputes Main threat to stability < ALACRA META ABSTRACT>Peru s long-term political stability is undermined by key structural risks, most prominently associated with mining and hydrocarbons exploration in the country s Amazon region. ...Indeed, slowing economic growth and the declining approval rating of President Ollanta Humala will encourage the government to increase both current and capital spending.

...We believe that a failure to address the discrepancy between wealth-creating and wealth-owning areas of the country could result in a marked uptick in political ten- sions, especially in the Amazon region, which is already the most volatile in the country in security terms. ...In August ----, the Peruvian assembly almost unanimously approved a new law that gives indigenous communities the right to be consulted about, and then approve, all projects likely to impact their environment. We believe this new law has the potential to mitigate social tensions triggered by new mining projects in the coming years, though with the implementation process still being worked out, it is too early to call for the end of indigenous-related violence over the medium to long term. Endemic Corruption: Despite numerous government campaigns, corruption remains endemic in Peru, with judicial complaints of political interference and accusations of the misappropriation of public funds commonplace. ...Not only will this hamper foreign investment into the economy (especially in the non-extractive sectors), reducing the potential for continued growth, it could further undermine already-low levels of public confidence in Peru s institutions. This is likely to reduce the country s ability to entrench its transition to democracy and ac- countable government, adding to the risk of popular discontent.

...Colombia to become the world s top producer of pure cocaine according to the US Drug Enforcement Administration, and we see little to suggest that production will slow substantially in the coming years. With tough crackdowns on drug production under way elsewhere in the region, we believe that there will be increased pressure to switch cultivation to Peru, forcing the government into expensive drug-reduction programmes that will weigh on its fiscal outlook and security situation. ...scenarios For political change The election of left-wing President Ollanta Humala in June ---- remains a key determinant of Peru s political trajectory over the next -- years. Humala Continues On Moderate Path (-- ): Our core view remains that Humala will continue the moderate political tra- jectory he has followed since his election in ----, walking a delicate line between maintaining business-friendly policies and enacting the necessary reforms to improve the flexibility of the labour market and the efficiency of the judiciary, and pleasing his largely left-wing support base. Humala is also likely address corruption, which remains an endemic problem plaguing Peruvian politics and bureaucracy. ...

  
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Peru Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Dec 04, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Peru-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1636>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Peru Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 04, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Peru-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1636>
  
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