Lithuania Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Lithuania Country Risk Report

Lithuania Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Lithuania Country Risk Report
Published Jul 23, 2015
47 pages — Published Jul 23, 2015
Price US$ 1,195.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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While Lithuania s long-term political outlook remains among the most stable in the emerging Europe region, we nevertheless caution that the country s convergence with Western political and economic insti- tutions through ---- is by no means assured. In particular, we high- light the aftermath of ---- s financial crisis as putting the country at a critical juncture. ...Having been among the first states to declare its independ- ence from the Soviet Union, Lithuania s political institutions are relatively well developed, particularly when compared to some of its regional peers in the emerging Europe region. Indeed, although concerns surrounding endemic corruption are still prevalent (Lithuania ranked --th globally in Trans- parency International s ---- Corruption Perceptions Index), we maintain a relatively sanguine outlook on the country s political stability over the long term, which should bode well for foreign investors risk perceptions towards the Baltic state through ----. challenges and threats to stability Lower Trend Growth Over Long Term: We maintain our view that Lithuania s ---- macroeconomic crisis is set to have a profound impact upon the state s long-term growth trajectory. ...scenarios For Political change Going forward, we believe that Lithuania s convergence process still has further to run, with greater integration with the European Union spurring the development and consolidation of its domestic political and economic institutions. As a result, political stability -- Business Monitor International Ltd

...Source: UN Population Projections will remain relatively robust over the long term, ensuring that the country remains an attractive destination for foreign investors. Shrugging Off The Past: Under a best case scenario, we see Lithuania s convergence with Western political and economic institutions continuing apace through ----, with successive governments making significant strides at improving the coun- try s underlying business environment (the World Bank ranked Lithuania --th in the world in its --- - Doing Business Report). ...Convergence Delayed: Under a worst-case scenario, we see Lithuania s domestic political environment characterised by a significant uptick in populist policy platforms, concomitant with the electorate becoming increasingly disenchanted with the realisation that they will be forced to accept a lower standard of living going forward. As the country s taxable base continues to shrink and the government finds itself with little choice but to overhaul the social security system, a noticeable shift in voting behaviour becomes evident, with the larger and increasingly more influential ---plus age bracket backing political parties that advocate rolling back some of the more controversial austerity measures imposed following ---- s crisis. To be sure, we see significant scope for an uptick in nationalist rhetoric under this scenario, which leads the government to taking a more hardline stance in its bilateral dealings with Russia. ...

...Moreover, Lithuania s Russians have had a strong track record of peaceful co-existence with Lithuanians. ...Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskait has been a vociferous opponent of the Kremlin s policies towards Ukraine and has maintained a confrontational stance towards Russia since the Ukraine crisis, often criticising EU officials for their lack of sufficient resistance to Moscow s perceived aggression towards Ukraine. While Grybauskait s harsh rhetoric towards Russia has sometimes incurred negative economic costs � for example, on several occasions, Russia has imposed additional regulatory bans on Lithuania related to trade and transportation, widely interpreted to be in retaliation to its hardline stance over Ukraine � we expect Grybauskait to maintain this tough line due to the high political benefits she reaps from her stance. While the Kremlin s stance towards the Baltics in general, and Lithuania in particular, will remain hardline, we maintain the view that it will fall short of actual aggression towards the region. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Lithuania Country Risk Report" Jul 23, 2015. Alacra Store. Apr 19, 2018. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Lithuania Country Risk Report Jul 23, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Apr 19, 2018 from <>
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