Libya Autos Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Libya Autos Report

Libya Autos Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Libya Autos Report
Published Sep 03, 2016
26 pages — Published Sep 03, 2016
Price US$ 1,295.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

...A vast number of councils and militias are competing for political influence and resources on the ground, and their alliances shift based on factors such as economic incentives, religious ideologies, tribal affiliations, personal rivalries and ties with foreign backers. ...A vast number of councils and militias are competing for political influence and resources on the ground, and their alliances shift based on factors such as economic incentives, religious ideologies, tribal affiliations, personal rivalries and ties with foreign backers. Libya s oil fields, pipelines, terminals and ports run across areas controlled by a wide range of these groups, and may be attacked at any point, should a local militia decide it wants to disrupt production or export in order to further their political cause or receive a pay-off from the authorities. Furthermore, the removal of IS from Sirte will not eliminate the security challenge that the group poses to Libya. ...That said, reconstruction efforts will need heavy commercial vehicles and related construction equipment, so the outlook for the HCV sector could be more positive over the long term, once the security situation stabilises. With regard to the outlook for PC or LCV sales, new vehicle ownership will remain out of reach for the majority of Libyan citizens, especially as we expect unemployment in the country to remain high throughout our forecast period, at around -- of the total labour force.

...The ongoing security crisis in Libya will also result in sharp losses for the dinar, and we believe that monetary authorities will be forced to devalue the currency significantly over the coming quarters as reserves are falling at an alarming rate. The unit has collapsed in the parallel market over the past quarters, where it was trading at more than LYD-.--/USD in late July ----, just over a quarter of the value of the official rate of LYD-.--/USD. ...A weak dinar increases the cost of imported vehicles, further depressing demand. Looking at the outlook for private consumption, a metric which can be useful to understand the potential demand for new vehicles within a country, we remain resolutely pessimistic, expecting falls in private consumption growth over both ---- and ----. Falling government spending and the destruction from the conflict will ensure a continued contraction in consumer spending over the coming quarters. ...For first-time buyers of new vehicles, this can create opportunities for lower-cost brands and producers of smaller cars. The reconstruction effort, which has so far been slow in getting off the ground, should provide some of the best opportunities in the new vehicle segment over the long term, as commercial vehicles will be in demand and the firms involved are unlikely to turn to ageing and illegal imports.

...The reported merger of Libya s rivalling National Oil Corporations (NOCs) in Tripoli and Benghazi in early-July and deals with Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) leader Ibrahim Jadhran later in the month to re- open the Ras Lanuf and El Sider ports mark positive steps towards increasing the country s oil exports and state revenues; and a likely liberation of Sirte from Islamic State (IS) in the coming weeks would represent a political boost for the GNA, which is working to extend its authority beyond Tripoli. That said, the impact of these developments on political stability will remain limited as long as the country s deep political divisions remain unresolved. ...That said, the impact of these developments on political stability will remain limited as long as the country s deep political divisions remain unresolved. Little progress has been made in peace talks between the GNA and the HoR over the last quarter; however, with the HoR facing growing financial constraints and international pressure to recognise the new government, we believe a final deal between the two sides will be reached within a year. Still, risks of such a deal breaking down would remain high in coming years, due to the highly localised and fluid nature of the Libyan conflict. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
2053-2768
Country
Industry
Format:
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Libya Autos Report" Sep 03, 2016. Alacra Store. Dec 09, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Libya-Autos-Report-2026-1439>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Libya Autos Report Sep 03, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 09, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Libya-Autos-Report-2026-1439>
  
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