Japan Freight Transport and Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Japan Freight Transport and Shipping Report

Japan Freight Transport and Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Japan Freight Transport and Shipping Report
Published May 28, 2016
48 pages — Published May 28, 2016
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A key development is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP is set to liberalise commodities trade across the Pacific, removing tariff and non-tariff obstacles, and the US agricultural sector is well poised to benefit from this trend (see TPP - Agribusiness Winners And Losers , November -- ----). ...With Japan sourcing only -- of its agricultural and food imports from TPP members and Malaysia as little as -- , we see room for further gains, largely at the expense of EU and Latin American producers. While the TPP will also offer tailwinds to Australia s agricultural sector - improving on the preferential tariff terms offered under the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement and expanding the country s market access - we believe the US is likely to be the biggest winner given that it does not currently have a free trade agreement with Japan, which is one of the most important agricultural importers within the TPP bloc. While Japan s direct exposure to China is relatively low with exports to China as a share of GDP sitting at just -.- , we believe that Japan s economy is not adequately prepared for a negative external shock, which would have a detrimental impact on Japan s shipping industry too. The huge build up in public debt and the ultra-low interest rate environment in place are undermining productivity, with businesses increasingly looking overseas for investment opportunities. Should external demand face a negative shock from falling Chinese demand, this could be the trigger for a contraction in Japan s real GDP growth, bringing into question the viability of Abenomics and causing a crisis of confidence in the country s fiscal trajectory.

...According to our projections, in ---- and ----, Japan s total trade will enjoy real growth of -.- and -.- respectively, a moderate slowdown on the -.- and -.- recorded in ---- and ----. This will be driven fairly evenly by imports (-.- real growth) and exports (-.- ). ...This growth in trade will come despite a tepid outlook for the Japanese economy as a whole. The -.- annualised real GDP contraction in Q--- suggests to us that the lack of structural reform and reliance on aggressive monetary stimulus are weighing on the Japanese economy, in spite of the major terms of trade improvement. We are forecasting real GDP growth of just -.- in ----, relative to -.- in ----.Despite our downbeat growth forecast, we believe that there is a growing risk of a deeper recession amid heightened financial market instability. Manufactured goods will continue to dominate the trade picture both in the short and medium term with Japan s main export being autos and auto parts. Fuel imports, meanwhile, are also a very significant factor in Japan s trade picture.

...Another bright spot arrives with the news of the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), which came into effect on -- January ----. In our view, the implementation of the JAEPA will benefit both parties, strengthen long-established trade ties and help increase bilateral trade between the two countries. Japan is Australia s second largest trading partner, accounting for approximately -- of total trade. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Japan Freight Transport and Shipping Report" May 28, 2016. Alacra Store. Oct 24, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Japan-Freight-Transport-and-Shipping-Report-2026-1902>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Japan Freight Transport and Shipping Report May 28, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 24, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Japan-Freight-Transport-and-Shipping-Report-2026-1902>
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