Italy Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Italy Business Forecast Report

Italy Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Italy Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
48 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
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Abstract:

Regardless of subsequent government s ideological leanings, Italian policymakers will be constrained by Italy s massive public debt load and will be forced to enact unpopular austerity measures over the next decade. This will limit the government s ability to tackle poverty and social discontent, with the north-south socio-economic divide widening. ...The austerity measures implemented under Prime Minister Mario Monti s technocratic administration suffered a clear rejection by the Italian electorate in February ----. This leaves an unenvi- able policy choice for subsequent prime ministers; either to continue with fiscal consolidation and anger further elements of the electorate, or reject austerity and potentially face the - Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook Far right Gaining opinion Polling for next General election Source: Piepoli, Ansa, Metapolls wrath of investors, who could drive Italian borrowing costs to unsustainable levels. Nevertheless, we hold to our view that over the long-term, Italy s massive debt load means the country will have to face substantial austerity beyond our ---year forecast, which will have significant implications for the country s social fabric, as well as its standing among regional and global peers. ...We have already observed the first signs of this trend with widespread protests against the government s decision to purchase --- F--- jets from the US defence firm Lockheed Martin, forcing the government to reduce its order to -- jets in February ----. This issue remains contentious, with current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi signalling a further review -- Business Monitor International Ltd www Italy Q- ---- two italys

...Source: National sources, BMI of military expenditure plans at a time when the effective tax burden is among the highest in Europe. ...To this end, current Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has boosted Italy s standing within the EU by scoring a decisive victory against eurosceptic parites in ---- European Parliament elections with a staunchly pro-EU message. While this could bring Italy and Germany closer as the symbolic heads of the eurozone project and give it more say in determining a blueprint for further integration, we nonetheless believe that Italy could find itself subordinated further to diktats coming from Brussels given its economic and debt-reduction woes. criminal organisations: an enduring relic Criminal organisations (Mafia, Camorra, and Ndrangheta) are a long-running problem that is unlikely to be resolved in the coming decade. ...As the country is unaccustomed and highly unprepared to be a significant migration destination, we expect this substantial inflow of foreign workers to lead to a backlash, boosting support for far-right parties. -- Business Monitor International Ltd www political outlook

...--Star Movement s appeal has waned as internal disputes within the party have left it ineffectual in parliament, it remains the second-most popular party in country after winning --.- of the popular vote in February ---- general elections. The steady decline in relevance of Forza Italia is problematic for Renzi, given that he is relying on Berlusconi s cooperation to facilitate the passage of electoral and senate reforms, the other key tenets of his legislative agenda. ...Despite holding largely ceremonial powers, Napolitano is one of the most respected politicians in Italy, a stabilising force amidst political upheavals, and a key Renzi ally. Speculation abounds that Renzi could call a snap election in the early stages of ---- to shore up his mandate amidst these rising challenges, but this would be highly unlikely to lead to a more favourable outcome if senate and electoral reforms remain unfinished. Our core view remains that Renzi will refrain from pursuing snap elections until these reforms are complete, or at least until he definitively loses the necessary backing in parliament. ...

  
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Italy Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Dec 02, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Italy-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1629>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Italy Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 02, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Italy-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1629>
  
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