A historically fast increase in consumer borrowing, not seen since ----, is also partly fuelling this recovery. While specific data on total outstanding auto loans remains unavailable, data on total consumer loans to households, including auto loans and loans for other large purchases, credit card loans and other personal loans, posted average y-o-y growth of --.- in the first six months of the year. ...A historically fast increase in consumer borrowing, not seen since ----, is also partly fuelling this recovery. While specific data on total outstanding auto loans remains unavailable, data on total consumer loans to households, including auto loans and loans for other large purchases, credit card loans and other personal loans, posted average y-o-y growth of --.- in the first six months of the year. In the years leading up to ---- growth in consumer credit has not correlated with growth in passenger car sales, which suggested that auto finance had become less important for boosting passenger car sales. However, a correlation has emerged over the last -- months suggesting that consumer credit growth has been fuelled by rising auto loans (see chart below). This is particularly clear in the month of June when passenger car sales growth dropped sharply to -- with consumer credit following suit and falling to --.- .
...A collapse in Italy s banking system, which our Country Risk team has flagged as a major risk, represents the biggest danger to passenger car sales through its negative impact on lending for auto loans. Pent-up demand and the need to replace the country s ageing fleet will encourage new car sales. ...Pent-up demand and the need to replace the country s ageing fleet will encourage new car sales. Commercial vehicles will perform strongly due to a higher business confidence and rising capital expenditure with heavy trucks outperforming the segment due to an uptick in heavy construction activity. Vehicle production will continue expansionist faster paced expansion as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles increases the output of its Alfa Romeo brand in time for new releases. ...Vehicle production will continue expansionist faster paced expansion as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles increases the output of its Alfa Romeo brand in time for new releases. Bus production at Italy s last remaining bus manufacturer is no longer on track for terminal decline but challenges will still stall a meaningful recovery until ----.
...We believe that Italy s vehicle sales will continue recovering over ---- but slow in and ---- and remain moderate through to the end of our five year forecast period in ----. We forecast sales to expand --.- in ----, -.- in ---- and average -.- over the --------- period. ...
