Iraq Telecommunications Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Iraq Telecommunications Report

Iraq Telecommunications Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Iraq Telecommunications Report
Published Aug 06, 2016
62 pages — Published Aug 06, 2016
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BMI View: We have made some forecast revisions in our Q--- report update to account for some major changes in the Iraqi telecommunications landscape. The mobile market contracted by over -- in ----, largely driven by IS activity and assaults in various parts of the country. However, we believe that as the government forces ramp up their attacks and look to drive IS out of its controlled zones, there will be a period of further mobile and telecom sector losses in ---- and ----. We are forecasting the market to return to growth from ---- onwards as our new forecast is predicated on the fact that the government liberation of Tikrit, Fallujah and neighbouring villages around Mosul will eventually lead to stronger mobile uptake. We note that in liberated cities such as Tikrit operators are beginning to report an improvement in ARPU and relatively better operating conditions. ...

...The Iraqi mobile market lost over -.--mn subscribers in ---- (-- contraction y-o-y) and an additional ---,--- in Q---. We attribute this to the IS taking control over various regions in the country and the ongoing violence throughout Iraq. ...Over the course of our forecast period, we believe the market will return to some degree of growth from ---- onwards and end ---- with over --.--mn subscribers and a penetration rate of --.- . We reiterate our view that our forecasts are predicated upon a very volatile security situation and we believe growth will return once the government has succeeded or made significant gains in its battles against the hard-line extremists. We hold a positive view of the -G rollout in the country. Our forecast envisages a very strong uptake as we see -G subscribers jumping from an estimated -.-mn at YE-- to over --.--mn by end of ----. Once again we reiterate our view that our -G forecast is based on improving domestic security conditions.

...BMI View: The Iraqi mobile market has continued to post strong negative growth throughout the course of ---- and the downward trend has continued into the first quarter of ----, as the extremist IS group retains control over significant geographical terrain. In its occupied areas, the group has reportedly damaged telecommunications infrastructure and even forbids the use of mobile phones amongst locals. In liberated cities such as Tikrit, operators are reporting improving subscriber numbers, greater ARPUs and a better operating environment. The Iraqi government armed forces, bolstered by coalition support, Kurdish factions and Iranian backed militias have begun major offences to retake Fallujah and other crucial areas previously under IS control. The ongoing battles against the IS present significant downside risks to our mobile and wireline forecasts for ---- and beyond given the prolonged civil and sectarian conflict in the country and its detrimental effects on economic growth, national infrastructure and technological uptake. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Iraq Telecommunications Report" Aug 06, 2016. Alacra Store. Apr 21, 2018. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Iraq Telecommunications Report Aug 06, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Apr 21, 2018 from <>
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