Iraq Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Iraq Country Risk Report

Iraq Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Iraq Country Risk Report
Published May 26, 2015
39 pages — Published May 26, 2015
Price US$ 1,195.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

Despite some gains, IS and its allies are highly unlikely to take over the heavily protected south � where the majority of country s oil is currently produced. Much of the Iraqi army s ---,----strong security forces, including battalions trained for urban warfare, are stationed in Baghdad and southern Iraq, and their willingness to defend the majority Shi a south is high. ...Much of the Iraqi army s ---,----strong security forces, including battalions trained for urban warfare, are stationed in Baghdad and southern Iraq, and their willingness to defend the majority Shi a south is high. Popular support for the Iraqi state is also stronger in the south, and volunteers and Shi a militiamen participated in the military campaign to take back Tikrit from IS. The formation of a new government under the leadership of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in September ---- has also lowered risks of a collapse of central authority. Below, we outline three main scenarios for political change over the coming decade. ...At the same time, sectarian tensions do not result in widespread bloodshed, as the main militant groups, aware that the country s unity is at -- Business Monitor International Ltd www.bmiresearch.com

...� Erbil and Baghdad both face steep fiscal deficits. Baghdad needs Kurdish oil to increase revenues, while the KRG is reliant on Baghdad s transfers to pay its expenditures. ...We believe both parties will cooperate in the military campaign, under US supervision. However, as soon as this objective is reached � probably within a year � Kurdistan will no longer find itself directly under threat, and we expect peshmerga forces to gradually step back and re- focus on what the KRG considers natural Kurdish territories: the current KRG area and the Kirkuk region. Baghdad will thus face a stronger, better entrenched KRG when it brings the Kirkuk issue back to the fore. ...In addition, it remains unclear whether the Iraqi central government is purposely avoiding paying for oil exports from the Kirkuk fields, so as to not acknowledge Kurdish ownership of the fields. Despite grievances on both sides, we expect the deal to remain in force, with high volatility in export volumes and fiscal transfers (see Baghdad-Erbil Accord Shaky

...Relations between Baghdad and the Kurdish government will remain cordial in the short-term, as both parties focus on defeating IS. Follow- ing the eventual defeat of IS in Mosul, we expect tensions to flare up between Erbil and Baghdad, as core issues remain unresolved. We maintain our view that an independent Kurdish state will not emerge over the next decade primarily due to Fiscal reliance on Baghdad and the absence of regional and international support. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
1745-0594
Country
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
Buy Now

Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

About the Author


Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Iraq Country Risk Report" May 26, 2015. Alacra Store. Dec 10, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Iraq-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1713>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Iraq Country Risk Report May 26, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 10, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Iraq-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1713>
  
US$ 1,195.00
$  £  
Have a Question?

Any questions about the report you're considering? Our Customer Service Team can help! Or visit our FAQs.

More Research

Search all our Market Research from one place.