Indonesia Mining Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Indonesia Mining Report

Indonesia Mining Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Indonesia Mining Report
Published Oct 01, 2016
92 pages — Published Oct 01, 2016
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Maintenance of the status quo (-- probability): This means that the current regulations will remain in place and a full ban on all mineral ore exports, including the temporarily allowed minerals, will be implemented in January ---- (see above for the impact on exports in ---- under current regulations). Complete relaxation (-- probability): This means that the mineral ore export ban will be revoked, and exports of all minerals will be allowed without any quota. ...Over the long term, despite the one time fall in domestic production due to the crackdown on illegal mining in ----, we believe output will be supported by strong demand from a domestic pipeline of coal-fired power plants. Although emerging economies like the Philippines will continue to rely on Indonesian coal for power generation, a spate of piracy incidents in the last few months attacking Indonesian ships will undermine shipments in the upcoming quarters. Additionally, India s ramping up of domestic coal production will eventually reduce the country s reliance on Indonesian coal imports in the coming years. ...We forecast Indonesia s nickel ore production to grow by --.- in ---- and by an annual average of --.- over the subsequent five years to --- thousand tonnes (kt). The country s nickel production growth will be supported by a few nickel pig iron smelters coming online, including Tsingshan

...----, a lack of funding and low metal prices have resulted in a slow materialisation of smelter construction. The dwindling of Chinese high-grade ore stocks and the consolidation of China s domestic nickel industry coupled with the high demand for nickel will tighten the global market and provide support to nickel prices. ...Tin production will be constrained in ---- as registered tin exporters struggle to obtain the Clean and Clear certification from the government which is a requirement in order to export tin from November - ----. Since January ----, the country s largest tin producer, PT Timah Tbk, stopped production in Kelabat Bay after orders from the local governor in Bangka to halt offshore mining following complaints from fishermen and NGOs about environmental damage caused by dredging. Without the relaxation of the ban moderation, the mining industry will not recover and continue to contribute to the country s economic slowdown. ...Additionally, Indonesia s real export growth dipped to -.- in ---- compared to --.- in ---- before the ban. These poor macroeconomic indicators will ensure the Indonesian government moderates the ban on mineral ore exports as it has planned to do in order to improve economic growth.

...BMI View: Uncertainty surrounds the Indonesian government s February ---- announcement of moderating its mineral ore export ban by the end of ----. Of some scenarios we have laid out regarding Indonesia s export policy, our core scenario is that by January ----, Indonesia will partly moderate its ban by relaxing exports of fully banned minerals, or delay the implementation for minerals currently holding temporary export permits. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Indonesia Mining Report" Oct 01, 2016. Alacra Store. Oct 27, 2016. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Indonesia Mining Report Oct 01, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 27, 2016 from <>
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