Hungary Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Hungary Country Risk Report

Hungary Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Hungary Country Risk Report
Published Jul 23, 2015
53 pages — Published Jul 23, 2015
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Our core view is for Hungary to continue to converge both economically and politically with Western Europe over the next decade, albeit at a much slower pace relative to pre-crisis years. The country will face substantial challenges, including the continuing rise of far-right parties, sustained poor relations between ethnic Hungarian and minority groups, and rising fiscal pressures from an ageing population. ...The employment situation will also need to be addressed, particularly given that Hungary has one of the lowest labour participation rates in the EU. EU Relations: Having joined the EU in ----, economic and political convergence has progressed steadily in Hungary. However, the Hungarian government faces being ostracised at an international level as a result of Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his populist Fidesz Party s alleged undermining of civil liberties, increasingly discriminatory policies towards Roma and immigrants, and statements that appear to signal a shift in government policy away from liberal democratic values. We believe this will lead to Hungary becoming increasingly isolated from decision making at an EU level, and could over time significantly erode once robust public support for joining the euro. We see accession to the euro occurring no earlier than -- Business Monitor International Ltd Hungary Q- ---- ageing Population a growing Problem

...Source: National Assembly Of Hungary, BMI causing tension with indigenous communities. Ethnic divisions are nothing new in Hungary, with the country s sizeable Roma minority consistently the target of right-wing accusations prior to the substantial leap in immigration. ...Mass immigration is a major political concern for almost every electorate in Western Europe, and if the Hungar- ian border fence can limit the numbers coming through it will make the respective government s tasks of controlling illegal immigration much easier. The new Hungarian anti-immigration measures come in the run up to a multinational conference on immigration from the Western Balkans, due to be held in Budapest in the autumn of ----, with invitations extended to representatives from all EU member states as well as Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. We do not expect any significant breakthrough to be made at this conference, with many of the transit countries happy to look the other way as long as the immigrants are only looking for passage to other states rather than to settle. Despite the attempt to foster greater coop- eration by holding the conference, we believe the construction of the fence will damage relations with the two countries likely to be most affected: Serbia and Croatia. The former as migrants seeking to make it to the EU build up in Serbia, and the latter as migrants use Croatia as an alternative route to the EU-proper.

...The strong showing of the far-right Jobbik party in the ---- parlia- mentary election is indicative of an electorate that is, in our view, increasingly disenchanted with mainstream politics and this could result in an uptick in tensions with the EU and neighbouring Slovakia and Romania. Amendments made to the constitution by the governing Fidesz party have, according to critics, eroded checks and balances as well as the robustness of democratic institutions. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Hungary Country Risk Report" Jul 23, 2015. Alacra Store. Oct 27, 2016. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Hungary Country Risk Report Jul 23, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 27, 2016 from <>
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