Global Lead Metals Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Global Lead Metals Report

Global Lead Metals Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Global Lead Metals Report
Published Oct 01, 2016
74 pages — Published Oct 01, 2016
Price US$ 1,295.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

We have revised up our lead price forecast for ---- due to both positive investment sentiment and a tightening of the market. We expect lead prices to average USD-,---/tonne in ----, up from our previous forecast of USD,----/tonne. ...Furthermore, low mine lead prices will force miners to cut capital expenditure and scale back or even halt operations, thus curbing lead mine supply growth. In China, which will account for --.- of global refined lead production in ----, increasing environmental concerns will force domestic lead refineries to close and scale down production. Globally, consumption will not slow as severely as production, as we expect stronger growth in global automotive production to boost demand for refined lead, primarily driven by India. ...Globally, consumption will not slow as severely as production, as we expect stronger growth in global automotive production to boost demand for refined lead, primarily driven by India. Our price revision puts us above Bloomberg consensus for both ---- and ----, but below consensus out to ----, as we expect a less-significant recovery in prices over the coming years (see below chart).

...High-frequency data indicates that the global lead market is beginning to tighten due to production taken offline over the course of ---- and previously in ----, largely from China. Although the front end of the LME futures curve has shifted repeatedly between backwardation and contango since January ----, and the market is currently shifting deeper into contango, this is largely due to LME deliveries pushing up inventories, and the tightening market trend is still there. ...High-frequency data indicates that the global lead market is beginning to tighten due to production taken offline over the course of ---- and previously in ----, largely from China. Although the front end of the LME futures curve has shifted repeatedly between backwardation and contango since January ----, and the market is currently shifting deeper into contango, this is largely due to LME deliveries pushing up inventories, and the tightening market trend is still there. For instance, over the first nine months of ----, the average spread between the LME lead spot and three-month price has narrowed to - USD-.-/tonne, compared to USD--.-/tonne during January-September ----, indicating the lead market is shifting slowly toward backwardation. Furthermore, LME lead inventories dropped from --- thousand tonnes (kt) at the start of ---- to ---kt by early September ----. Although this level remains high by historical standards (it was just --kt in ----), the decline confirms tightening in the market.

...The global primary lead market will shift into deficit by ---- on the back of persistent supply cuts. Mined lead production will be hit by a global slowdown in mining capital expenditure, which will have a knock-on effect on refined lead supply growth. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
2397-5121
Industry
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
Buy Now

Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

About the Author


Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Global Lead Metals Report" Oct 01, 2016. Alacra Store. Dec 04, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Global-Lead-Metals-Report-2026-1931>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Global Lead Metals Report Oct 01, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 04, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Global-Lead-Metals-Report-2026-1931>
  
US$ 1,295.00
$  £  
Have a Question?

Any questions about the report you're considering? Our Customer Service Team can help! Or visit our FAQs.

More Research

Search all our Market Research from one place.