Germany Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Germany Country Risk Report

Germany Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Germany Country Risk Report
Published May 26, 2015
55 pages — Published May 26, 2015
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Franco-German Relations And Eurozone Implications: Over the past few decades Germany has been a prime mover behind closer European integration, and in particular the eurozone. How- ever, under the governments of Merkel and Hollande, Germany and France appear further apart on the topic of integration than at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and possibly even since the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community in ----. ...The policy continuity score is --.-, which reflects long-term consensus between the centre-left and centre-right parties on the general direction of policy, but is limited by the uncertainty surrounding EU-level policy-making. scenarios for Political evolution We see three main political scenarios for Germany over the next decade, each with a relatively equal chance of playing out: More Of The Same: One potential scenario is that Germany will see very little change over the next decade, remaining a bas- tion of economic and political stability. Party politics remains dominated by Germany s volkspartei � the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) � and governments are formed with a combination of one or both of these two parties. ...Rise of Extremist Politics: A potential result of widening income disparity between East and West German lander, com- bined with the steady immigration and an ageing population, is the rise in support for extremist political parties in lower income regions. To some extent this is already occurring, with the far-left Die Linke � founded from the remnants of East

...Source: Bremen Parliament, BMI as a leading player in the drive for further European integration. threats and challenges to stability Demography And Multiculturalism: Germany has a major demographic problem. Every long-term population forecast released in recent years � by the German Federal Statistics Office, UN Population Department and Eurostat, to name but three � has projected an ageing and falling population through to ---- and beyond. As we have previously highlighted, the Eurostat figures forecast the German population declining from --.-mn in ---- to --.-mn in ---- (down -.- ) and --.-mn by ---- (down --.- ). ...Significant inequality has in part been reflected in the growing electoral appeal of Die Linke, a far-left party with its roots in the old ruling East German Communist Party, the SED. The party is particularly popular in the former East German states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony, where it has eaten into the support base of the

...Source: BMI mayor Jens Bohrnsen in the wake of the disappointing result. Support for the SPD and the Greens did not drain away to the CDU, which retained its -- seats on a marginally improved share of the vote, but to smaller parties on both the left and right. ...Nevertheless, the party has been boosted by an increas- ing undercurrent of support for anti-mainstream parties, and will remain a thorn in the side of the CDU. sPd may require change in direction While we are in the mid-point of the current federal parliament, with Germany s next general election still two years away, it will require a concerted effort from the SPD leadership to overturn the CDU s healthy lead in opinion polls and offer a credible alternative to Merkel s staid-yet-effective governing programme. Though it has not yet officially been announced, it is widely expected that Merkel will run for a fourth succes- sive term as chancellor, particularly since she still enjoys high personal approval ratings, coming in at -- in May. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Germany Country Risk Report" May 26, 2015. Alacra Store. Jun 22, 2018. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Germany Country Risk Report May 26, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Jun 22, 2018 from <>
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