Democratic Republic of the Congo Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Democratic Republic of the Congo Business Forecast Report

Democratic Republic of the Congo Business Forecast Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Democratic Republic of the Congo Business Forecast Report
Published Dec 12, 2014
24 pages — Published Dec 12, 2014
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Abstract:

Source: BMI cally organised and largely ineffective. Cobbled together from a variety of mutually antagonistic former rebel armies, the DRC armed forces are incapable of controlling the national territory or defending civilians from rebel attacks. ...The DRC s dependence on the UN s --,----strong peacekeeping mission underlines the weakness of local institutions. Volatile Eastern Provinces: The inability of the armed forces to maintain order is most readily apparent in the ethnically divided but mineral rich provinces of North and South Kivu, where almost -mn people are currently displaced from their homes by a variety of rebel groups. These two provinces have been unstable since the ----s, when the Rwandan genocide displaced hundreds of thousands of people across the poorly patrolled border. ...While we predict relatively robust headline GDP growth over the coming years, BMI does not believe that the economy is likely to diversify or create the jobs necessary to meaningfully reduce poverty. The DRC is one of the few countries that is unlikely to meet any of the Millennium

...There is little chance that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will succeed in overcoming the many structural weaknesses that have made it one of Sub-Saharan Africa s least stable countries. While the consolidation of power by the central government remains possible, our core scenario is that Kinshasa s authority over provincial govern- ments will remain limited and that perceived corruption, violence and poor institutions will continue to characterise the DRC at the local level. ...There is little chance that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will succeed in overcoming the many structural weaknesses that have made it one of Sub-Saharan Africa s least stable countries. While the consolidation of power by the central government remains possible, our core scenario is that Kinshasa s authority over provincial govern- ments will remain limited and that perceived corruption, violence and poor institutions will continue to characterise the DRC at the local level. A return to the civil war and anarchy of the ----s is unlikely but re- mains a risk. ...Even in the more stable provinces, local governments often disregard national policies and enforce their own laws. This is especially common in copper-rich Katanga, which has refused to implement policies which it sees as harm- ful to the mining sector.

...Source: BMI, UN Unfortunately, given the fact that BMI expects the economic growth to be driven by the capital-dependent mining sector, a growing population will contribute to rising unemployment. ...BMI notes that high levels of unemployment and disenfranchisement among youthful populations are a powerful predictor of social instability. potential political outcomes Given the five structural causes of instability listed above, BMI believes that by far the most likely political trajectory for the DRC is a continuation of the managed fragility that has prevailed since ----. We do highlight, however, two possible alternatives. ...

  
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Document ID
2049-1832
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Democratic Republic of the Congo Business Forecast Report" Dec 12, 2014. Alacra Store. Dec 10, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Democratic-Republic-of-the-Congo-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1626>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2014). Democratic Republic of the Congo Business Forecast Report Dec 12, 2014. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 10, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Democratic-Republic-of-the-Congo-Business-Forecast-Report-2026-1626>
  
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