We believe cocoa smuggling from Ghana into Cote d Ivoire will also continue in ----/--. In order to prevent smuggling (which has been a concern in recent years), Ghana followed Cote d Ivoire and raised its fixed farmgate price for ----/-- by -- y-o-y at GHS-.--/kg, equivalent to XOF-,---/kg at the exchange rate on October -- ----. ...We believe cocoa smuggling from Ghana into Cote d Ivoire will also continue in ----/--. In order to prevent smuggling (which has been a concern in recent years), Ghana followed Cote d Ivoire and raised its fixed farmgate price for ----/-- by -- y-o-y at GHS-.--/kg, equivalent to XOF-,---/kg at the exchange rate on October -- ----. However, we expect Ghanaian farmers to continue smuggling for two reasons. ...More specifically, in ----, BMI expects a -.- depreciation of the average cedi exchange rate against the XOF, which is pegged to the euro. Second, although the new Ghanaian farmgate price is slightly above Cote d Ivoire s, the former is a set price while the latter is only a guaranteed minimum.
...BMI View: The Ivorian cocoa sector will post modest growth over the coming years, the result of high prices encouraging greater input use. Sector reforms, including a minimum set price paid to farmers, will also help production improve. ...Sector reforms, including a minimum set price paid to farmers, will also help production improve. However, the sector will remain fragmented over the coming years, and reduced smuggling from Ghana due to reduced currency depreciation will keep production growth in Cote d Ivoire subdued. The palm oil sector will also face long-term structural challenges, and Cote d Ivoire will remain a net palm oil exporter over the coming years. ...However, the sector will remain fragmented over the coming years, and reduced smuggling from Ghana due to reduced currency depreciation will keep production growth in Cote d Ivoire subdued. The palm oil sector will also face long-term structural challenges, and Cote d Ivoire will remain a net palm oil exporter over the coming years.
...Production - A number of South East Asia-based palm oil producers have announced plans to expand into Africa, with some of them having started operations. However, enthusiasm has somewhat faded since ----. ...
