Bulgaria Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Bulgaria Country Risk Report

Bulgaria Country Risk Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Bulgaria Country Risk Report
Published May 26, 2015
53 pages — Published May 26, 2015
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Abstract:

Source: CELDI/CSD towards EU integration of policy and institutions, below we highlight a number of issues which could yet threaten the country s political stability and economic potential. We outline several scenarios for political change over the coming decade. ...Moreover, we expect continued pressure from the EU to tackle both these issues. Despite this, we see only slow and limited improvement in corruption and organised crime over the coming decade given that the EU s ability to spur domestic lawmakers into action has been slightly diminished by already admitting Bulgaria to the bloc, and due to the difficulty involved in effectively tackling these areas of concern. Adverse demographic trends will weigh on Bulgaria s long-term economic growth and political stability profile. ...

...Bulgaria s minority coalition government is proving more stable than we had initially anticipated, and has ushered in a much-needed period of relative political stability. While this will help to anchor governance reforms, we do not see Bulgaria making concrete progress in converg- ing with EU living standards. ...As a result, much-needed structural reforms to reduce corrup- tion, privatise inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and liberalise the labour market stalled. We believe that the bank run sparked by a dispute between a politician and media mogul, which ultimately forced Corporate Commercial Bank, AD (KTB) into bankruptcy in ----, was a one-off event and does not represent a systemic risk within the Bulgarian banking sector (see No Honeymoon For Fragile Coali- tion November ----). We continue to see little chance of conta- gion within the sector as KTB was relatively isolated from other lenders, which largely comprise subsidiaries of large parent banks. In addition, the Bulgarian National Bank has voluntarily submit- ted itself to European Banking Authority regulatory oversight following the KTB bankruptcy. This will substantially reduce the likelihood of a repeat of the KTB collapse by integrating the sector more fully into the European banking framework.

...Presidential - october --, ---- (run-off oct --, ----) Composition of Current Government minority coalition led by centre-right GERB party with the Reformist Bloc as junior coalition partner. key Figures main Political Parties (number of seats in parliament) Citizens For European Development of Bulgaria: A centre-right party formed in ---- under the leader- ship of Sofia mayor and new prime minister Boyko Borisov, with a policy platform focused on tackling corruption and fostering further integration with the EU. ...Presidential - october --, ---- (run-off oct --, ----) Composition of Current Government minority coalition led by centre-right GERB party with the Reformist Bloc as junior coalition partner. key Figures main Political Parties (number of seats in parliament) Citizens For European Development of Bulgaria: A centre-right party formed in ---- under the leader- ship of Sofia mayor and new prime minister Boyko Borisov, with a policy platform focused on tackling corruption and fostering further integration with the EU. The landslide victory for GERB in the ---- elections marks a significant turning point in Bulgarian politics, with the electorate choosing market reform over populism and concomitantly driving a fundamental shift in the dominant political ideology. ...

  
Source:
Document ID
1744-8816
Country
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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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MLA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Bulgaria Country Risk Report" May 26, 2015. Alacra Store. Dec 03, 2016. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Bulgaria-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1706>
  
APA:
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2015). Bulgaria Country Risk Report May 26, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Dec 03, 2016 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Business-Monitor-International-Industry-Reports/Bulgaria-Country-Risk-Report-2026-1706>
  
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