Argentina Freight Transport and Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports

Argentina Freight Transport and Shipping Report

Argentina Freight Transport and Shipping Report - Business Monitor International - Industry Reports
Argentina Freight Transport and Shipping Report
Published Sep 10, 2016
51 pages — Published Sep 10, 2016
Price US$ 1,295.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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...Now that exports have become more competitive demand will tick upward, and combined with higher storage costs as the new harvest comes online, producers will begin to release stores. ...Rising inflation and falling real incomes for private sector employees has led to large declines in retail sales. Moreover, the public sector has yet to see the significant job losses endured by commodity producers and any fiscal austerity measures by the Brazilian government will likely lead to the government cutting its workforce. As such, we see scope for unemployment to head as high as --.- within certain quarters of ----. In addition, default rates among households are rising and attempts at deleveraging have been eroded by the large value of mortgages. Overall, we forecast real GDP to contract by --.- in ----.

...We are forecasting Argentine real trade to grow by --.-- y-o-y in ----, boosted by an --.-- real import growth and --.-- real export growth. Nominal US dollar denominated trade values will decline this year by a modest -.-- to USD---.-bn. ...The soybean export tax was cut by five percentage points to -- and restrictions on corn and wheat shipments were also removed. This does not bode well for soy beans, with our commodities team expecting that soybeans will lose acreage to both crops and yields will decrease as farmers swap soybeans for wheat in early plantings. As such, we hold a bearish view on soybean production in Argentina through to the end of our forecast period in ----/--. Argentina will experience a modest recession in ---- (estimated at --.- of GDP for ----) as policies implemented by president-elect Mauricio Macri will erode private consumption. Thereafter, the country will enter a period of more robust growth as foreign investment supports employment.

...Despite the devaluation of the peso making goods more expensive, a shift in policy by the new government will facilitate a turnaround in consumer spending and investment attractiveness. We have already seen this play out, as the construction sector began to recover in ----. ...The devaluation will be more beneficial for exporters, especially in the soy industry. We expect that a devaluation of the peso in ---- will drive an expansion in soy exports as producers unload their stocks. However, export-oriented manufacturers will struggle to obtain foreign inputs to boost output given currency weakness. ...

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports—Established in 1984, Business Monitor International is a leading online publisher of specialist business information on global emerging markets. Business Monitor's range of quarterly services covers political risk, finance, macroeconomic performance, outlook and forecast, industry sectors and the business operating environment. Each Industry Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering production, sales, imports and exports; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes for multinational and local manufacturers and suppliers; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes.

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Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. "Argentina Freight Transport and Shipping Report" Sep 10, 2016. Alacra Store. Oct 21, 2016. <>
Business Monitor International - Industry Reports. (2016). Argentina Freight Transport and Shipping Report Sep 10, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 21, 2016 from <>
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