...Executive Summary � Algeria core Views The Algerian economy is entering a rough patch. ...Executive Summary � Algeria core Views The Algerian economy is entering a rough patch. we expect weaker growth in government spending, lower consumer and business confidence, and the managed depreciation of the Algerian dinar to weigh on economic activity over the coming quarters. Growth will be subdued, reaching -.- in real terms this year and -.- in ----. ...we believe that the ruling elite will remain capable of dealing with these localised challenges for the time being, but see risks to stability increasing over the decade. risks that ---- could see the emergence of large-scale political unrest in Algeria are low, even as the country shares similar po- litical, economic and social characteristics as other countries that experienced revolutions during the Arab Spring.
...- Business Monitor International Ltd www bMi indices � brief Methodology composite score The composite score is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economic scores, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI s emerging markets universe. Political risk index The political index is an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. ...The factors included in the short-term score are a subset of those in the long-term score. operational risk index BMI s Operational Risk Index provides a comprehensive overview of potential risks facing investors operating in a country, as well as a cross-country regional evaluation of threats and advantages. The factors included in the short-term score are a subset of those in the long-term score. ...operational risk index BMI s Operational Risk Index provides a comprehensive overview of potential risks facing investors operating in a country, as well as a cross-country regional evaluation of threats and advantages.
...ALGERIA AND LIBYA Q- ---- libya The bMi risk indices can be used to rank emerging markets in terms of political risk, the economy and the operational risk environment. ...only the most risk-seeking investors will enter the Libyan market over the coming years, given elevated political violence. Even if the security situation improves, a new government would need to en- sure reliable energy supplies and reform to the business environment, developments which are highly unlikely in our view. bMi risk index � libya latest score Previous score region Ave global Mkts Ave ...
