Report title: Emerging ASEAN Sovereigns' Business Cycles Show Significant Synchronicity
from S&P Credit Research
1636 word report published May 03, 2009

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Abstract: The five emerging economies that are core members of ASEAN (Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam) share many common characteristics. They are relatively small, open economies, heavily dependent on trade. Most are significantly focused on commodity exports, but have also diversified into labor-intensive manufacturing. They have attained similar levels of economic integration--either through trade or capital flows--with the U.S. and the larger Asia-Pacific economies. Given these similarities, it seems reasonable to expect that these economies would be vulnerable to the same risks and that they would manifest synchronous macroeconomic fluctuations. This article analyzes the degree of commonality of business-cycle dynamics across these five emerging economies in ASEAN. Table 1 presents simple correlation coefficients across the five ASEAN economies and their

Brief Excerpt: RESEARCH Ratings Definitions Emerging ASEAN Sovereigns' Business Cycles Show Significant Synchronicity Publication date: 03-May-2009 Credit Market Services: Subir V Gokarn, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, Mumbai (91) 11-4250-5113; subir_gokarn@standardand...

Report Type: Commentary
Sector: Global Issuers, Public Finance, Structured Finance
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