| Abstract: | Based on our estimates of a worst-case scenario, the three-year U.S. cumulative default rate between 2008 and 2010 among speculative-grade nonfinancials will rise to 23.2%, the worst on record since 1981. If realized, this estimate suggests that 353 speculative-grade rated nonfinancial firms could default between 2008 and 2010, with potentially more than 200 of these defaults materializing in the second half of 2009 and in 2010. Consumer-sensitive sectors—such as consumer products, media and entertainment, and retail and restaurants—will be among the worst hit, in line with what happened in 1990-1992. This estimate is drawn from observation and analytical judgment about past peaks in the default cycle over three-year periods; it is separate from the one-year forecast we update quarterly. Screaming
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| Brief Excerpt: | RESEARCH Ratings Definitions Default, Transition, and Recovery: By 2010, U.S. Corporate Default Rate Could Rise To More Than 23% Publication date: 26-Sep-2008 Global Fixed Income Research: Diane Vazza, Managing Director, New York...
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| Report Type: | Commentary
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| Sector: | Asset-Backed Commercial Paper, Asset-Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations, Commercial MBS, Corporations, Financial Institutions, Global Issuers, Insurance, International Public Finance, Public Finance, Real Estate Companies, Residential MBS, Servicer Evaluations, Sovereigns, Structured Finance, Utilities
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