Oxford Analytica

AFGHANISTAN: Kandahar outlook AFGHANISTAN: Kandahar security is key campaign test The outlook for security in Kandahar. As Afghanistan#;s Pashtun political and cultural heartland, Kandahar is the decisive battleground for southern Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama is considering sending thousands

SOUTH AFRICA: MTBPS signals SOUTH AFRICA: Medium-term budget signals no shift left On October ##, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan presented his first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). By outlining priorities over a three-year horizon, the MTBPS offers

INTERNATIONAL: Saudi sour INTERNATIONAL: Riyadh seeks role for sour crude Saudi Arabia on October ## announced a change to the way it will price crude oil delivered into the US market. Saudi Arabia#;s decision to change the way it

RUSSIA/CHINA: Energy integration RUSSIA/CHINA: Moscow banks on Chinese energy demand Increasing bilateral energy interdependence. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin#;s visit to Beijing earlier this month yielded commercial deals worth #.# billion dollars and a sweeping framework for

WESTERN SAHARA: Dispute outlook WESTERN SAHARA: Deadlock may lead to unilateral moves The Polisario#;s envoy to Paris on October ## denied reports that it would pull out of talks with Morocco if seven recently detained Sahrawi activists were not

ARGENTINA: Political reform ARGENTINA: Political reform has pro-government bias The government presented its draft political reform bill to Congress on October ##. The reform, which would introduce simultaneous, open and obligatory party primaries, does not address opposition demands for

AUSTRIA: SPOe downturn AUSTRIA: Regional defeats challenge SPOe#;s future The recent losses of the Social Democrats (SPOe) at regional elections and their national implications. Recent elections held in Vorarlberg and Upper Austria resulted in heavy losses for the SPOe

JAPAN: Lay jury system JAPAN: Moves increase trial speed and transparency The effect of the introduction of lay juries on criminal justice in Japan. The establishment this year of a lay jury system has implications across the board for criminal

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Disaster preparedness SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Leaders address natural disaster risk Regional leaders on October ## agreed a set of measures to enhance South-east Asia#;s preparedness against natural disasters. Devastation from flooding and other catastrophes is

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Mining outlook SOUTHERN AFRICA: Regional mining outlook improves Prospects for the mining sector in southern Africa. After a traumatic year for the extractive sector, signs of recovery are evident. An increase in commodity prices has come sooner than

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Ra#;s al-Khaimah outlook UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Ra#;s al-Khaimah under stress The outlook for stability in Ra#;s al-Khaimah. The potential for instability was highlighted by a public warning by the exiled former

INTERNATIONAL: Rating agency reform INTERNATIONAL: Reforms close in on rating agencies The US House Committee on Financial Services approved draft legislation yesterday to improve regulation of credit rating agencies. Washington and Brussels have both adopted regulatory reforms regarding credit rating

BOSNIA: Butmir blunders BOSNIA: West washes hands after key talks collapse It is up to the Bosnians to resolve the country#;s political impasse, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt told the EU External Relations Council in Luxembourg on October ##

CAUCASUS: Gender gap CAUCASUS: Position of women is worse than in #### Discrimination against women in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Some of the gains made under the Soviet regime to integrate the #;women of the East#; -- the Caucasus and Central

PERU: Church pressures PERU: Catholic Church flexes muscles on abortion The political influence of the Catholic Church hierarchy in Peru on moral issues. The Church retains great moral authority in Peru. However, its stance on abortion and contraception reveals the

INTERNATIONAL: Dollar surprise? INTERNATIONAL: Dollar could surprise in #### The dollar this week fell to a ##-month low against the euro. The dollar/euro rate has surged from a low of around #.## in early #### to over

UKRAINE: Fiscal pressures UKRAINE: Fiscal pressures lead to rapid rise in debt The opposition Party of Regions yesterday sharply criticised the IMF for calling on President Viktor Yushchenko to veto controversial new legislation on social spending. The government of Prime

CHINA/EUROPE: Courting CEE CHINA/EUROPE: Leader-in-waiting signals CEE interest Vice-President Xi Jinping#;s two-week tour of Belgium, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Xi#;s visit signals the start of a new Chinese diplomatic offensive in

LATIN AMERICA: Populist politics LATIN AMERICA: Populist tradition lives on The influence of populism in contemporary Latin American politics. Populism is a term repeatedly used to describe Latin American politicians and/or their parties, often with a decidedly negative connotation

ISRAEL: OECD entry ISRAEL: OECD entry requires painful political changes The implications of Israel#;s entry into the OECD. Israeli civil servants often use the signing of binding international agreements of the kind required for OECD membership to institute reforms

JAPAN: DPJ government unity JAPAN: Tensions test Hatoyama#;s hold on policy Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama#;s ability to manage coalition and intra-party tensions. Should Hatoyama fail to handle these issues well it would have disruptive consequences for the

INTERNATIONAL: Class INTERNATIONAL: Crisis risks return of #;class#; conflict Class -- what it is and why it matters. Advanced democracies contain significant class distinctions based on differences in income, occupation, life expectancy and education. During periods of economic crisis these are

HUNGARY: Election preview HUNGARY: Election campaign reopens sensitive issues Opposition Fidesz and the extra-parliamentary far-right held rallies in Budapest on October ##. The right is hoping to redraw the political landscape dramatically in upcoming elections. Having handed over

UNITED STATES: Polarised politics UNITED STATES: Polarised politics hurts reform efforts Party polarisation and its impact on congressional legislation and policymakers. With just a single Republican senator tenuously supporting President Barack Obama#;s healthcare reform efforts and uniform Republican opposition

INDIA: Nuclear power outlook INDIA: Delhi forges ahead on nuclear power plans India#;s civilian nuclear programme. Since key diplomatic breakthroughs last year on nuclear energy, the government has set expansive targets, attracted foreign investment pledges and struck fuel supply

GERMANY: New government GERMANY: New coalition defers serious reforms The new Christian Democrat (CDU/CSU)-Free Democrat (FDP) coalition government under Chancellor Angela Merkel will be sworn in on October ##. Several weeks after winning a solid majority in the

RUSSIA: Criminal cabals RUSSIA: Underworld may face new round of gang wars The US Federal Bureau of Investigation on October ## formally placed Semion Mogilevich, a controversial Russian businessman, on its list of ten most-wanted criminals. The US decision

INTERNATIONAL: Islamism and women INTERNATIONAL:Islamic womanhood trumps gender equality The effect of contemporary Islamic movements on women. Islamic groups advocate conservative models of #;Islamic womanhood#; and oppose the legal and social changes in women#;s status advocated by feminist

TAIWAN: Trials of Chen TAIWAN: Chen#;s trials throw an uncomfortable light The High Court on October ## began hearing former President Chen Shui-bian#;s appeal against a life sentence. Chen was convicted of corruption, but the process that

MEXICO: Mining royalties MEXICO: PRI promotes mining royalties Moves from opposition senators to impose royalties on mining production to cover Mexico#;s fiscal deficit. Mexico#;s business-friendly policies and the country#;s rich geological potential have attracted billions of

PHILIPPINES: Election outlook PHILIPPINES: Presidential field narrows for #### poll Aides to former President Joseph Estrada today defended his controversial decision to stand in the May #### presidential election. Amid a series of typhoons and associated natural disasters, the Philippines

MOZAMBIQUE: Pre-poll outlook MOZAMBIQUE: Frelimo heads for win despite upstart MDM General elections will take place on October ##. The ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique is set to consolidate its hold on power. However, there is some uncertainty over

UNITED STATES: Persistent housing slide? UNITED STATES: Housing prices could fall another ##% Sales of existing homes jumped #.#% in September, to an annual rate of #.## million units, the National Association of Realtors reported on October ##

INTERNATIONAL: LNG supply shock? INTERNATIONAL: LNG capacity rising amid demand slump Qatar#;s RasGas # LNG production facility will be completed by the end of the year, the company announced today. The recent investment cycle in LNG is coming to

RUSSIA: Nuclear doctrine RUSSIA: Credibility gap drives down nuclear threshold Expected revisions to military doctrine that will lower the nuclear first-use threshold. Secretary of the National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev has repeatedly suggested that the latest version of Russia

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: Lee#;s #;grand bargain#; SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: Seoul eyes #;grand bargain#; Seoul will send an aid package comprising #.# million dollars#; worth of food to North Korea, according to a Unification Ministry official today

EUROPEAN UNION: Gender equality EUROPEAN UNION: Sweden and Spain push gender equality Prospects for gender equality to become an EU policy priority. Gender equality has been a policy priority for a number of European countries in recent years, beginning in

UNITED STATES: Obama and the right UNITED STATES: Fringe Right does not trouble Obama President Barack Obama#;s opponents on the hard right, and their impact on governability and the mainstream Republican opposition. The growing media prominence of the hard

AFGHANISTAN: Presidential run-off AFGHANISTAN: Risks stalk election run-off A presidential election run-off is scheduled for November #. The prospect of another election is fraught with difficulties from security, logistical and political points of view. There is a

ZAMBIA: MMD friction ZAMBIA: Chiluba verdict makes trouble for MMD Continuing political fallout from the collapse of corruption proceedings against former President Frederick Chiluba. Civil society groups and opposition parties have interpreted the decision as politically motivated, and accuse President

SYRIA: Foreign investment SYRIA: Foreign investment growing fast, but still low President Bashar al-Assad reaffirmed his commitment to increased links with Europe yesterday, despite delays in the signing of the EU Association Agreement. The UN Conference on Trade and

TURKMENISTAN: Energy strategy TURKMENISTAN: Gazprom export monopoly comes to an end Implications of recent developments in the oil and gas sectors. On October ##, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov replaced most senior officials in the oil and gas sectors, citing their "irresponsible

NEW ZEALAND: Forestry industry NEW ZEALAND: Forestry helps break extended recession The forestry industry and the boost from China. Forestry exports have helped lift an industry in the doldrums and provided support for the economy at a tough time. Statistics

CENTRAL EUROPE: Listless leftists CENTRAL EUROPE: Left fails to capitalise on crisis The disarray among social democrats across Central Europe (CE) as they struggle to connect with crisis-struck voters ahead of the next elections. As in Western Europe, the

LATIN AMERICA: Media moves LATIN AMERICA: Media moves risk freedom of expression Recent initiatives that may affect freedom of expression in Latin America. There is an increasingly consolidated trend in the region towards restrictions on the media and the work

BURMA: Than Shwe BURMA: Than Shwe seeks respect but not change A profile of Senior General Than Shwe. Than Shwe has ruled Burma for more than ## years. He will play a key role in determining whether the current warming

CHINA: Climate policy CHINA: Beijing#;s carbon stance is critical Beijing and Delhi agreed yesterday to coordinate their efforts on climate change. China and India are at one in holding developed countries responsible for taking the lead in cutting emissions

EUROPEAN UNION: Risky sciences EUROPEAN UNION: EU weighs innovation over risks The EU#;s debate on how to regulate the application of new technologies in a cost-effective and low-risk manner. One of the most contentious areas of EU

CEE: Post-communist values CEE: EU-## may emerge from crisis more self-confident Changing values in the ten post-communist EU member states (EU-##). Materialist values were strengthened by a lack of consumption goods under communism and during

RUSSIA: Privatisation push RUSSIA: Capital needs underlie privatisation agenda President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday called for a revival of privatisation, suggesting it would help the state reach an "optimal" level of participation in the economy. Medvedev#;s pronouncements follow a number

BRAZIL: Telecoms tactics BRAZIL: Vivendi, Telefonica vie for internet provider Implications of the takeover battle for Brazilian internet provider GVT. Telefonica sees the move as a way to expand its coverage of Sao Paulo and block a new entrant to

TUNISIA: Upcoming elections TUNISIA: Elections will bring no surprises Presidential and legislative elections will be held in Tunisia on October ##. President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali will be elected for a fifth successive term and his ruling party will

UNITED STATES: Republican recovery? UNITED STATES: Republican recovery will be partial President Barack Obama on October ## attended a fundraiser for the Democrats in New York, as the party seeks gradually to replenish its coffers ahead of mid-term congressional

INTERNATIONAL: IT outsourcing risk INTERNATIONAL: IT outsourcing poses risks Xerox#;s #.# billion dollar IT-outsourcing acquisition will tomorrow announce results for the first quarter of fiscal ####. Results from Affiliated Computer Services, recently acquired by Xerox, will signal

SOUTH KOREA/INT: Seoul in the region SOUTH KOREA/INT: Lee pushes Seoul#;s regional agenda South Korea#;s President Lee Myung-bak and Vietnam#;s President Nguyen Minh Triet agreed today to raise their countries#; bilateral relationship to a

ISRAEL: Forex interventions ISRAEL: Bank interventions show forex reserves concern Senior officials at the Bank of Israel (BoI) held an extraordinary meeting on October ## with the country#;s leading financial market traders. In the related press release, the bank

GEORGIA: Simulated stimulus? GEORGIA: Economic policy is more show than substance The government announced a "new wave of privatisation" on October ##. The government says it wants to reduce the state#;s role in the economy, but its approach has

CHILE: Uncertain elections CHILE: Presidential elections appear increasingly open Independent presidential candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami is tied with the governing coalition#;s candidate, Eduardo Frei, on ##% of voting intentions, according to a poll published yesterday. Less than two months

INTERNATIONAL: Climate adaptation INTERNATIONAL: Climate change adaptation costs soar Funding and managing climate change adaptation. Recent studies on the impact of climate change suggest that the cost of adaptation and mitigation for developing countries will be two to three times

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Fragile recovery SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Export dependence holds back recovery The economic outlook for South-east Asia. The region#;s economies have returned to growth, but in a slow and divergent manner. Excessive reliance on exports may

BOTSWANA: BDP election victory BOTSWANA: BDP poll victory leaves economy to tackle The ruling Botswana Democratic Party expanded its parliamentary majority in the October ## elections. The election confirms the country#;s political stability, even as the global economic downturn

EUROPE: Nuclear comeback EUROPE: Governments recommit to nuclear energy In Germany, the incoming coalition decided on October ## to reverse the phase-out of nuclear power. Decisions by the Belgian and German governments to abandon previous commitments to phase out

UNITED STATES: Inflation outlook UNITED STATES: Inflation risk looks manageable The question of whether inflation or deflation is the most significant threat to US economic recovery and sustained expansion. The Federal Reserve#;s assessment as to whether inflation or deflation

RUSSIA: Development and demography RUSSIA: Development could alleviate demographic crisis Implications and policy challenges of demographic decline. Russia#;s leaders have set themselves the formidable task of creating a world-leading power, engaged in the global economy, with an educated

BAHRAIN: Labour policy BAHRAIN: Labour policy balances locals and expatriates Bahrain held its inaugural Education Project event on October ##. Among the topics of discussion at the event was the #;Future Skills Strategy#;, launched by Bahrain#;s Labour Fund, Tamkeen

BOLIVIA: Ethnic energy BOLIVIA: Gas investment causes ethnic tensions Government policy towards gas investment in Tarija. The government, having pledged to increase indigenous rights, faces the difficulty of meshing this with the need to attract new investment to the gas

INTERNATIONAL: Global taxation INTERNATIONAL: Global taxation remains distant reality Calls for global taxation and a Tobin tax. High-profile policymakers, most recently UK Financial Services Authority Chairman Adair Turner, have called for forms of global taxation, particularly on financial transactions

INDIA: Naval push INDIA: Old fears and new spur naval build-up India#;s plans for naval modernisation. Maritime power is central to India#;s security, given the country#;s growing energy import requirements and the long-term challenges posed

UNITED STATES: Chronic unemployment UNITED STATES: High joblessness may be entrenched The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims continued to fall at a very slow pace, to ###,### from ###,### the previous week, the Labor Department

POLAND: Insurance market POLAND: PZU-Eureko deal is boon for insurance market The settlement of the dispute with Dutch insurer Eureko for control of Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen (PZU). Settlement is an important achievement for the Polish government, bringing to an

SOUTH KOREA: Union trouble SOUTH KOREA: Unions gear up for renewed militancy The Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU) indicated on October ## that it would call a general strike in December. The more moderate FKTU could find itself collaborating

UKRAINE: Media pluralism UKRAINE: Pluralistic media will ensure lively campaign The campaign for the January ## presidential election officially begins today. The emergence of genuinely pluralistic, largely professional media means that presidential candidates will not encounter deep-seated pro-regime

SOUTH AFRICA: Planning and Performance Ministries SOUTH AFRICA: New planning ministries face constraints South Africa#;s new government departments of National Planning and Performance Monitoring. The new departments are an ambitious response to the serious failures of policy coordination and

PUERTO RICO: Fiscal protests PUERTO RICO: Fiscal crisis causes protests A general strike took place on October ##. Governor Luis Fortuno#;s determination to push through deep budget cuts is being tested. Trade unions held a one-day general strike

PAKISTAN: Kerry-Lugar controversy PAKISTAN: Army uses aid controversy to assert its role Opposition politicians today criticised a #.# billion dollar US aid package, signed by US President Barack Obama yesterday, as an affront to national honour. The highly

UNITED STATES: #;Christian Right#; UNITED STATES: #;Christian Right#; down but not out The prospects for the #;Christian Right#;, following setbacks to its agenda and heavy defeats in the last two federal election cycles. The social and political movement known as

BURKINA FASO: Regional role BURKINA FASO: Compaore cements regional role Burkina Faso#;s expanding role in West African diplomacy and commerce. Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore is now official mediator of conflicts in Togo, Ivory Coast and Guinea, cementing his position

INTERNATIONAL: Social capital INTERNATIONAL: Social capital can ameliorate crisis Social capital amid the economic crisis. The spread of economic contraction and mass unemployment is testing modern democratic society#;s social capital. These problems strike individuals directly, but their solutions require

RUSSIA: Regional election fallout RUSSIA: Election conduct sparks anti-regime backlash The three opposition blocs represented in the Duma (lower house of parliament) staged a walkout on October ## in protest against irregularities in the regional elections. Last Sunday#;s

CEE: Penal performance CEE: Penal policy often lags behind EU standards Levels of imprisonment in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly in Bulgaria, Lithuania, Poland and Slovenia. EU membership conditionality required that the ten post-communist member states embark on prison

INTERNATIONAL: Accounting standards INTERNATIONAL: Politicisation of accounting is risky The relationship between accounting standards and political pressures. Several recent decisions by accounting standard setters, including significant relaxation of fair value accounting rules, appear to have been taken in response to

BRAZIL: Copenhagen considerations BRAZIL: Government seeks activist Amazon profile Amazon deforestation concerns in the run-up to the Copenhagen climate summit. In the run-up to the climate change summit in Copenhagen in December, Brasilia is anxious to be seen

THAILAND: Political outlook THAILAND: King#;s health stokes stability fears King Bhumibol Adulyadej is in a "stable" condition after ## days in hospital, the Royal Palace said today. The statement was calculated to reassure the public, after concern that the

CHINA: Changing Chongqing CHINA: Crackdown clears way for Chongqing#;s rise Trials have begun this week of scores of alleged gang members rounded up in the current crackdown on organised crime in Chongqing. Chongqing is rapidly becoming a political and

UNITED STATES: Muslim integration UNITED STATES: Young Muslims#; piety, alienation rise Muslim integration and identity in the United States. Muslims living in the United States, like many in Western Europe, are becoming increasingly religious and are identifying more with Islam

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Stand-by agreement DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: IMF agreement boosts credibility The stand-by agreement with the IMF. The #.# billion dollar agreement will allow the government to implement counter-cyclical policies in coming months without harming its external

MIDDLE EAST: Abbas decline MIDDLE EAST: Abbas#;s standing is unlikely to recover The UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) will today vote on whether to endorse the Goldstone Report on the December-January conflict in Gaza. Palestinian National Authority President

EAST AFRICA: Environment and politics EAST AFRICA: Environmental governance feeds tensions Controversies over natural resource management in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. In Kenya and Uganda, struggles over forestland have led to violence and threaten future political unrest. In Ethiopia, internal

EUROPE: Demographic challenges EUROPE: Ageing population clouds economic outlook The shrinking population in the EU-## and its economic and social consequences. Three major trends shape Europe#;s demographic future: low fertility, ageing societies and increasing immigration. Europe#;s population

INTERNATIONAL: CDS markets INTERNATIONAL: Derivatives markets rebound Revival of the credit default swaps market. Despite being widely blamed as a cause of the global banking crisis, scant progress so far has occurred in regulating the now-booming credit default swaps

ROMANIA: Recession victim ROMANIA: Crisis reveals weak basis for recent growth The minority Democratic Liberal government lost yesterday#;s no-confidence vote in parliament. The Romanian government is the latest to fall victim to a steep contraction in domestic economic

JAPAN: Inter-generational transfers JAPAN: Wealth transfers will accelerate with ageing Inter-generational transfers and bequests in an ageing population. As the population ages, wealth will increasingly pass down to younger generations. This will have economic consequences. The ageing of

CENTRAL AFRICA: LRA chase CENTRAL AFRICA: Region#;s armies keep pressure on LRA From October ##-##, the US Africa Command will help to stage a regional training exercise as part of continuing efforts to target the Lord#;s Resistance

GERMANY: Economic outlook GERMANY: CDU/CSU and FDP will continue slow reform The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Free Democrats (FDP) meet today for their third round of negotiations on a coalition government programme. The ability of the incoming coalition

CIS: Regional recovery prospects CIS: Structural weaknesses will hold back recovery Comparative crisis effects and recovery prospects for Russia and its neighbours. The CIS countries (and Georgia) have shown different degrees of resilience to global turbulence, depending not only on

MIDDLE EAST: Presidential security states MIDDLE EAST: Presidential security states take shape The advent of the Arab presidential security state. Talk of a third wave of democratisation or of a global move towards greater political and economic openness obscures the

LATIN AMERICA: Military expenditure LATIN AMERICA: Growth, mistrust spur arms spending The rapid growth of military spending in the region and its causes. In recent years military expenditure and arms acquisitions have grown at a pace not seen for decades