Oxford Analytica

GUINEA: Anti-junta protest GUINEA: Massacre reveals CNDD#;s taste for power Security forces killed scores of anti-junta protesters on September ##. This week#;s protests against the presidential candidacy of junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara were the

INDIA: Microfinance outlook INDIA: Microfinance grows, riding out turbulence Hyderabad-based SKS Microfinance is aiming to become the world#;s largest microfinance lender after gaining its five-millionth client this month. Rapid growth in Indian microfinance is helping to fill

US/INTERNATIONAL: Meat industry prospects US/INTERNATIONAL:Meat industry faces global challenges The outlook for the US meat, livestock, egg and poultry industries, in the face of increased welfare regulation and rising input prices. The US meat industry generates ###

ISRAEL: Coalition politics ISRAEL: Netanyahu stays strong at head of coalition Israeli officials are in Washington today to discuss attempts to renew peace talks with the Palestinians. A recent poll found that security, and primarily the Iranian nuclear threat, topped

EU/KOSOVO: EULEX test EU/KOSOVO: EULEX is make-or-break credibility test On September ##, the EULEX mission chief defended reaching a coordination agreement with Belgrade after Kosovo Albanian protests. EULEX Kosovo, the EU#;s largest civilian security mission

CUBA/US: Challenging engagement CUBA/US: Engagement challenges ideological discipline The US State Department yesterday announced that talks took place this month between the acting deputy assistant secretary in the bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, Bisa Williams, and Cuban Deputy

CIS: Caspian energy CIS: Energy imperatives try to unravel Caspian knot Kazakhstan is discussing with Azerbaijan exporting oil from the Caspian to the Black Sea via the Baku-Supsa pipeline or constructing a larger pipeline alongside it, Timur Kulibayev of

PORTUGAL: Socratic dialogue PORTUGAL: Socialists lose absolute majority Prime Minister Jose Socrates won the parliamentary elections on September ##. The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) under Socrates has a plurality in parliament. However, the new government will be considerably more

INTERNATIONAL: Fiscal capacity INTERNATIONAL: #;W-shaped#; recovery will strain budgets Global fiscal capacity. Doubts about the durability of global recovery are raising the issue of fiscal capacity. At the beginning of the credit crunch in the second half of ####

NORTH KOREA: Sanctions dilemma NORTH KOREA: Sanctions run up against broader goals North Korea will respond to sanctions with increased nuclear deterrence, Pyongyang#;s Deputy Foreign Minister Pak Kil-yon told the UN General Assembly yesterday. Sanctions are in fact

INDIA: Telecoms outlook INDIA: Telecoms firms will focus on basic services The Department of Telecommunications is due to release tender documents this week for an auction of third-generation bandwidth. The process aims to create a new market in high

US/MIDDLE EAST: Obama#;s setbacks US/MIDDLE EAST: Obama Arab-Israeli policy stalls Israeli government representatives today hold talks with US special envoy George Mitchell on getting the Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track. Despite early media expectations

HONDURAS: Economic crisis HONDURAS: Economic woes could force negotiation De facto President Roberto Micheletti yesterday said civil liberties soon could be restored. The forced removal from office of President Manuel Zelaya in June had major economic costs due to a

UNITED KINGDOM: Nuclear cuts UNITED KINGDOM: Nuclear cuts bolster non-proliferation Prime Minister Gordon Brown on September ## announced plans to reduce the nuclear submarine fleet. The decision to cut back on one submarine has little significance economically and not

RUSSIA: SME support RUSSIA: SME development takes small but positive steps State efforts to support small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development. Russia has been hit hard by the global recession, with GDP falling by ##.#% year-on-year

SOUTH AFRICA: Zuma assessment SOUTH AFRICA: Zuma policy preferences remain unclear President Jacob Zuma#;s early months in office. Against a difficult economic background and high domestic expectations, South Africa#;s new president has enhanced his political standing. However, the

SRI LANKA: Losing GSP+ SRI LANKA: Government fends off rights investigations Government officials are preparing for the possible loss of a key EU trade concession. The move is being considered in Brussels on the grounds that the Sri Lankan forces

INTERNATIONAL: G## role INTERNATIONAL: G## gains stature but is overambitious The G## Leaders#; Summit was held in Pittsburgh on September ##-##. G## members -- in their third summit in under a year -- determined that the G## should become the premier

ASIA: Recovery issues ASIA: Asian #;V-shaped recovery#; is far from assured The outlook for Asia#;s apparent and sharp V-shaped recovery. Asia was the last of the three major economic regions to be hit by the global economic

MOROCCO: Political outlook MOROCCO: Next decade may see increasing confrontation The outlook for the second decade of King Mohammed VI#;s reign in Morocco. The first decade may be celebrated as a success for the king. However, economic growth remains

FRANCE: Global player FRANCE: Sarkozy continues to act on the global stage President Nicolas Sarkozy participated in the G## summit in Pittsburgh on September ##-##. Under Sarkozy, France is determined to play an influential and powerful role in ##st

CHILE: Gender equality CHILE: Slow progress to equality under Bachelet Women#;s progress under President Michelle Bachelet. Although the results may not have been as dramatic or apparent as many hoped, Bachelet has taken important steps in laying the groundwork

MOLDOVA: Crisis latecomer MOLDOVA: Sharp remittance falls darken outlook The World Bank announced at the September ##-## G## summit that the contribution to Moldova#;s GDP from migrant workers#; remittances could halve this year. The World Bank report confirms

AFGHANISTAN: Campaign timelines AFGHANISTAN: Coalition timelines are out-of-sync Setting realistic timelines for the war in Afghanistan. US and NATO officials have stressed the need for a #;comprehensive approach#; to the war in Afghanistan in which political, military and

IRAN/UN: Petrol imports sanctions IRAN/UN: Petrol imports sanctions may be ineffective Foreign ministers from the Permanent Five UN Security Council members and Germany met in New York yesterday to discuss how to curtail the Iranian nuclear programme. As

CZECH REPUBLIC: Early elections check CZECH REPUBLIC: Court stops parties playing with law The austerity #### budget was approved in parliament today. Prime Minister Jan Fischer made approval of the package tantamount to a vote of confidence in his interim

INTERNATIONAL: Work activation INTERNATIONAL: Unemployment tests policy responses Work activation and unemployment. Joblessness in advanced democracies presents a formidable public policy challenge; unemployment has been dealt with increasingly through punitive work-based support systems implemented during the last ## years

INTERNATIONAL: Dynastic succession INTERNATIONAL: Dynastic succession is on the rise The ambition of an increasing number of leaders worldwide to retain political power within their own families. In several regions of the world, political executive power has been transferred recently

KAZAKHSTAN: OSCE strategy KAZAKHSTAN: Democratic deficit likely to undercut OSCE On September ##, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) sharply criticised a Kazakh court#;s seizure of an opposition newspaper#;s print run. Kazakhstan will succeed Greece

BRAZIL: Trade recovery BRAZIL: Basic goods lead export recovery The increased weight of basic goods in Brazil#;s exports. After an atypical twelve months, when many manufactured exports virtually collapsed and imports of all types fell sharply, trade has begun

UNITED STATES: FHA woes UNITED STATES: FHA woes signal more housing troubles The Federal Housing Administration#;s (FHA#;s) September ## annual report indicated that its reserves would fall below the legally mandated level for the first time in its

BOSNIA: Bumpy ride BOSNIA: Rising tensions pose international conundrum The United States sees Bosnian Serb obstructionism at Elektroprenos as violating the Dayton peace accords, Ambassador Charles English said in today#;s Oslobodjenje newspaper. The Serbs have been boycotting management meetings

INDONESIA: Growth and reform INDONESIA: Shift needed to investment-led growth The Asian Development Bank on September ## upgraded Indonesia#;s growth outlook this year from #.#% to #.#%. The Indonesian economy has recently outshone its peers in

UKRAINE: Devaluation pressure UKRAINE: Pressure rises on currency and National Bank Efforts by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to prevent a sharp currency devaluation. The NBU has approved a measure introducing a #% cap on deviations between buy and

INTERNATIONAL: Inflation-targeting INTERNATIONAL: Inflation-targeting is set to return The US Federal Reserve yesterday held interest rates steady, but indicated that it would gradually reduce the pace of its programme of asset purchases (#;quantitative easing#;) as the outlook for

ECUADOR/COLOMBIA: Renewing relations ECUADOR/COLOMBIA: Normalisation talks will be slow The Ecuadorean and Colombian foreign ministers met on September ##. The meeting suggests a process of reconciliation between the two countries, following over ## months in which diplomatic relations

CHINA: Two-child Shanghai? CHINA: Shanghai shows the way on population policy The future of the one-child policy. Shanghai is encouraging couples to have more than one child, where the current rules permit, in a new departure that has

TURKEY: Regional role TURKEY: Growing regional role offers new opportunities Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is attending the UN General Assembly and G## meetings, capitalising on Turkey#;s current membership of the UN Security Council. In a busy schedule of

NORTH AMERICA: Gas industry outlook NORTH AMERICA: Unconventional gas hits LNG, pipelines The impact of huge new US and Canadian unconventional gas developments on North American and global energy industries. Reliable private and government estimates suggest that proven US gas

RUSSIA/AFRICA: Trade and investment RUSSIA/AFRICA: Further growth in trade faces hurdles Renewed efforts by Russia to boost trade relations with Africa. After the modest gains that followed former President Vladimir Putin#;s efforts to revive Russia-African trade

INTERNATIONAL: Recovery scenarios INTERNATIONAL: Stagflation remains a medium-term risk Global recovery scenarios. With the prospect of the global economy returning to growth by the first half of ####, the optimistic recovery scenario is becoming the consensus outlook. However, this

ARGENTINA: Slow recovery ARGENTINA: Budget forecasts point to slow recovery GDP contracted by #.#% year-on-year in the second quarter, the government reported on September ##. The acknowledgement of slowdown coincided with the presentation of the draft ####

AUSTRALIA/CHINA: Iron ore pricing AUSTRALIA/CHINA: Pressures alter iron ore pricing Iron ore price negotiations, between Rio Tinto and China. Early this month, Rio Tinto announced that price negotiations with Chinese steel mills had ceased. The failure of this

INTERNATIONAL: Failed states INTERNATIONAL: Failed states test international system Failed states, what they are and why they matter. Declaring statehood is popular, yet many states struggle to maintain the semblance of public order and performance capacities necessary for effective governance

EUROPE: Early exit warnings EUROPE: Slow recovery does not warrant exit measures The G## meets on September ##-## in Pittsburgh to discuss, inter alia, the global economy and stimulus exit strategies. While electoral and other political considerations have skewed

INDONESIA: Terrorism after Top INDONESIA: Noordin#;s network may strike again Indonesian police are hunting down the accomplices of alleged terrorist ringleader Noordin Top, who was killed in a police raid on September ##. Noordin#;s death was confirmed by

NIGERIA: Delta amnesty NIGERIA: Politics compromises Delta amnesty programme The government#;s Niger Delta amnesty offer to militants is due to expire on October #. The amnesty represents the most significant development in the federal government#;s engagement with militants

AUSTRALIA: Healthcare reform AUSTRALIA: Healthcare reform faces political tests Reforms to healthcare and the related politics. Australia#;s medical and hospital system performs reasonably well by international standards. However, both sides of politics have exploited what are at times unrealistic

COLOMBIA: Referendum outlook COLOMBIA: Referendum confuses presidential race Recently approved legislation for a constitutional referendum. Rather than clarifying the political future, recent legislation casts further doubts over elections scheduled for next year, as well as the immediate welfare of democracy

US/RUSSIA: Missile defence implications US/RUSSIA: MD shift will bring only short-term thaw On September ##, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin offered cautious praise for US President Barack Obama#;s decision not to install elements of a long-range

YEMEN: Northern conflict YEMEN: Northern clashes put regime at risk Fighting in northern Yemen intensified on September ## as Zaydi rebels attempted, unsuccessfully, to take over the presidential palace in Sa#;dah. The persistent rebellion weakens the authority of the

IRELAND: Toxic assets IRELAND: Government sets up bad bank Some #,### people demonstrated against the National Asset Management Agency and the government on September ##. The Irish banking system is still vulnerable to massive property loan write-offs on

INTERNATIONAL: BRICs outlook INTERNATIONAL: Shared interest may drive BRICs closer Post-crisis outlook for Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRICs) and potential for mutual cooperation. Heavily reliant on global demand, BRIC countries have a mutual interest in driving the

IRAN/US: Iranian nuclear timetable IRAN/US: Despite progress Iran is not close to a bomb US President Barack Obama announced on September ## that the United States would abandon the previous administration#;s plans to construct missile defence installations

INDIA: Copenhagen agenda INDIA: Delhi seeks funding for emissions reductions India#;s position on the imposition of mandatory carbon emissions targets at the Copenhagen Summit in December. A carbon heavy growth strategy is clearly not in India#;s interests given

TURKEY: Economic programme TURKEY: IMF deal in doubt despite new programme Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on September ## called on the IMF not to drag out its negotiations with Turkey any longer following Ankara#;s announcement last week of

UGANDA: Kampala riots UGANDA: Kampala riots expose ethnic cleavages The implications of ethno-nationalist riots in Kampala on September ##-##. As Uganda recovers from its worst civil disturbances in ## years, politicians, media, and the public have begun trying

JAPAN: Asia-centred policy JAPAN: US to retain relevance amid new focus on Asia Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will meet the US and Chinese heads of state this week on the sidelines of UN and G## meetings. He is also

RUSSIA: Recovery prospects RUSSIA: Green shoots emerge but recovery will be slow GDP shrank in August by ##.#% year-on-year, Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina announced on September ##. Despite this sharp contraction, there are signs that

URUGUAY: Pre-electoral politicking URUGUAY: Growth uptick boosts FA#;s electoral hopes GDP expanded by #.#% quarter-on-quarter and #.#% year-on-year in the second quarter, the Central Bank reported on September ##. The news, following

ITALY: Southern discomfort ITALY: Coalition#;s North-South fault-line re-emerges The political and structural factors aggravating the impact of the economic crisis on Italy#;s South. The impact of the crisis on the South will become the most

UNITED STATES: Unconventional gas finds UNITED STATES: Huge new gas finds to transform markets How huge new US unconventional gas developments will change markets. Recent evaluations based on production data for the Appalachian Basin Marcellus Shale formation estimate potential gas

EASTERN EUROPE: FDI threat EASTERN EUROPE: South-eastern Europe may miss FDI boat Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the first seven months fell to #.#% of GDP compared with ##.#% in January-July ####, the Bulgarian National

IRAN: Clerical splits IRAN: Khamenei seeks to stifle clerical dissent Former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been replaced as leader of today#;s Friday prayers at Tehran University by a hardline cleric. Iran#;s election crisis has deepened divisions

RUSSIA: Pragmatic alliances RUSSIA: Shifting alliances do not foretell isolation President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday welcomed the "responsible" US decision to cancel plans to deploy missile defence sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. The gradual rapprochement between Washington and Moscow

INTERNATIONAL: #;High-powered money#; INTERNATIONAL: #;High-powered money#; poses risks Consequences of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) unprecedented expansion in base money. Potential for #;high-powered money#; to support a multiple of itself in broad money is at the centre

INDIA/CHINA: Deepening strains INDIA/CHINA: Long-term rivalry is developing India#;s relations with China. In spite of the rapid growth of trade, strategic and economic issues are increasingly separating India and China. In particular, China#;s close relations

INTERNATIONAL: Copenhagen outlook INTERNATIONAL: Climate gains likely at Copenhagen The much-anticipated Copenhagen conference on climate change begins in under three months, with countries signaling initial negotiating positions and intensifying consultation. Hopes had been high that the conference would reach

IRAN/US: Nuclear talks IRAN/US: Nuclear talks unlikely to bring concessions Multilateral talks on Iran#;s nuclear programme will begin on October #. A diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear stalemate rests on the Obama administration#;s ability to

US/INTERNATIONAL: Agricultural product supports US/INTERNATIONAL: Agro price supports on borrowed time The prospects for ending market-distorting US subsidies on key agricultural commodities. US producers of milk, sugar, rice and cotton deploy one of the most powerful protectionist

JAPAN: Hatoyama cabinet JAPAN: Hatoyama forms DPJ#;s coalition cabinet Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader Yukio Hatoyama was confirmed as prime minister yesterday and announced his cabinet. His government reflects the balance of forces within his party and relative

UKRAINE: Disenchanted populace UKRAINE: Poor governance engenders deep discontent The sources and implications of Ukrainians#; deep dissatisfaction with their elected authorities. Despite seemingly incessant political infighting, Ukraine#;s political system been touted in the West as more transparent and perhaps

AFRICA: Horn stability AFRICA: US strike comes amid threats to Horn stability On September ##, a US helicopter raid in southern Somalia reportedly killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a member of al-Qaida in East Africa. The US raid will

INTERNATIONAL: Exit strategies INTERNATIONAL: Local factors shape #;exit#; strategies Outlook for government #;exit#; strategies from crisis policy measures. As analysts become more assured that economic recovery is underway, attention is rapidly turning to exit strategies. Governments now will be concerned

EUROPEAN UNION: Lisbon revisited EUROPEAN UNION: Irish #;Yes#; is crucial for Europe On October #, the Irish will vote on the Lisbon Treaty for the second time. The result of the second Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will be

BRAZIL: Out of recession BRAZIL: Second-quarter data suggest full-year growth GDP expanded by #.#% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, the government announced on September ##, with a smaller-than-expected year-on-year contraction of

NORWAY: Labour#;s triumph NORWAY: Renewed coalition disagrees on oil drilling The government won the elections on September ##. This is a clear victory for the centre-left coalition and in particular for incumbent Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg. The sitting

UNITED STATES: Fed reform UNITED STATES: Enhanced Fed powers draw new scrutiny President Barack Obama reiterated his plan to strengthen the Federal Reserve#;s role in combating systemic risk on September ##. The structure of the Fed was designed to

PAKISTAN: Local government PAKISTAN: Upheaval looms for local government Plans to overhaul local government and strike a new revenue-sharing agreement with the provinces. The government is pursuing several proposals that would rebalance the federal system after a period of

HUNGARY: Europe#;s sick man? HUNGARY: IFI-approved budget ignores competitiveness The #### budget may be the last in the current recessionary cycle, Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai told parliament on September ##. Hungary, the first EU country to seek a

SYRIA/IRAQ: Diplomatic feud SYRIA/IRAQ: Feud will hurt Maliki but not Damascus Iraqi and Syrian foreign ministers will meet in Istanbul tomorrow as part of Turkish efforts to mediate in the diplomatic row over the August ## truck bombings

RUSSIA: Diversification prospects RUSSIA: State-centric approach thwarts diversification President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday reiterated his call for Russian industrialists to move away from a business model that relies solely on the export of raw materials. The global economic crisis has

AFRICA: Census politics AFRICA: Politics of census-taking threatens stability Census-taking and stability in Africa. The census is of critical importance because it underpins all aspects of government planning. However, the quality of census data in many countries is

MEXICO: Cartel fight MEXICO: Government is cornered in cartel fight Conflict between the government and drug cartels. Drug-related violence continues to increase. President Felipe Calderon#;s administration seems at a loss over how to achieve clear progress in the

CENTRAL ASIA: China ties CENTRAL ASIA: Chinese investment welcome, to a point Economic and political integration between China and Central Asia. China has taken on an increasingly active role in post-Soviet Central Asia. Its economic presence in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan

BURMA: Ethnic armies BURMA: Minority forces are in election crossfire Burma#;s ruling junta is pressing the country#;s ethnic minority armies to transform themselves into frontier forces controlled by the government before next year#;s election. The move, if

CEE: Renewed reform? CEE: Consensus is lacking for more structural reform Polish quarter-on-quarter growth will slow to zero by the fourth quarter, the European Commission forecast yesterday. The economic crisis has led to deep recessions in most Central

SOUTH AFRICA: Inflation targeting SOUTH AFRICA: Inflation targeting faces change The South African Reserve Bank#;s inflation-targeting policy. The Bank#;s focus on inflation, to the exclusion of other economic variables, in the setting of interest rates is bitterly

ASIA/CHINA: Maritime claims ASIA/CHINA: Law could defuse Spratly rivalries Disputed maritime claims in East and South-east Asia. Unresolved sovereignty and jurisdictional disputes represent serious potential threats to security in the region. However, risks here would be minimised

BOLIVIA: Climate change BOLIVIA: Government focuses on climate change Climate change in Bolivia. Bolivia is of the one most vulnerable countries in Latin America due to widespread poverty and the likely multiple effects of climate change on diverse ecosystems. The

GERMANY: Election preview GERMANY: Parties cope with five-party system Sunday#;s debate between Chancellor Angela Merkel and challenger Frank-Walter Steinmeier opens the decisive campaign phase for the September ## federal elections. A confident Merkel is heading for re

INDIA: Maharashtra outlook INDIA: Politics limits Maharashtra#;s competitiveness Elections to the Maharashtra state assembly take place on October ##. The exercise will be the first electoral test of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh#;s government, which recently completed ### days

GEORGIA: Saakashvili#;s loyalists GEORGIA: Despite problems Saakashvili team coalesces President Mikheil Saakashvili#;s grip on government. Recent changes at the defence and economy ministries brought into government ministers who are even more attuned to the policies and objectives of

MIDDLE EAST: Advertising industry prospects MIDDLE EAST: Ad industry faces spending shortfall The prospects for the Middle East advertising industry. Advertising declined sharply at the end of last year and did not pick up as expected after winter. Despite the

ZIMBABWE: Coalition outlook ZIMBABWE: Donor engagement complicates GPA outlook An EU delegation visited Harare from September ##-##. There are continuing signs of re-engagement between the Zimbabwean government and the donor community, and Harare is likely to receive substantial

INTERNATIONAL: Gold outlook INTERNATIONAL: Gold spike looks short lived The gold price broke through the symbolic #,### dollar mark in mid-day trading on September #. The recent increase has comforted those who see the metal as an attractive

EU/US: Transatlantic relations EU/US: Global leadership is still lacking Prospects for EU-US global leadership. It has become a recurrent theme of President Barack Obama#;s administration that no single country can resolve the world#;s problems acting

ARGENTINA: Better banks ARGENTINA: Banking system stays strong despite crisis The strength of Argentina#;s banking system. Figures for the first half of #### show that the banking system has coped well with the global financial crisis. Banks remain liquid