Oxford Analytica

TAJIKISTAN: State-business relations TAJIKISTAN: Vested interests limit reform prospects The evolution of state control over key industrial assets. In the past two years, press reports, litigation in the United Kingdom and an Ernst & Young audit have revealed a number

PROSPECTS ####: Oil PROSPECTS ####: Oil Prospects for the oil market in ####. Weak fundamentals do not rule out high prices as recovery takes hold and markets look ahead to a potential second oil price spike. Strategic summary Oil demand

EGYPT: NDP conference EGYPT: Gamal#;s position bolstered at NDP conference The National Democratic Party#;s (NDP#;s) Sixth Annual Conference took place between October ## and November #. The NDP is largely unchallenged in the political arena, with opposition

BRAZIL: Sports splurge BRAZIL: World Cup, Olympics may bring few benefits The impact of hosting the #### football World Cup and #### Olympic Games. Brazil will host the World Cup, the world#;s most popular sporting event, in ####, and

PROSPECTS ####: International climate policy PROSPECTS ####: International climate policy Prospects for international climate policy in ####. The Copenhagen conference on climate change takes place from December #-##, with negotiations across all climate policy dimensions. Domestic political debates within

EU/UK: Working time regulations EU/UK: Institutions bicker over Working Time Directive The European Commission will in the coming weeks begin its second attempt to overhaul EU rules on working time. The complex processes by which the directive was

INDIA: Naxalite threat INDIA: Industrial growth feeds Naxalite resistance Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaran today discussed new government efforts to combat the spread of Naxalites in India#;s so-called #;red corridor#;. These revolutionary communist rebels have long dominated remote forest

URUGUAY: Second round URUGUAY: Election result shows even Left-Right split A presidential run-off election will be held on November ##. The leftist Frente Amplio retained its legislative majority in the October ## elections, but did not receive the

IRAN: Security establishment IRAN: IRGC rise increases the influence of radicals The Basij militia and Tehran police clashed violently with opposition protesters yesterday, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened tough action against anyone hijacking the official November #

NEW ZEALAND: Capital raising NEW ZEALAND: Meat and dairy make capitalisation moves Meat and dairy company capitalisations. Moves have been made to bring in new capital at Silver Fern Farms, the leading meat producer. Fonterra, one of the world#;s

PROSPECTS ####: US economy PROSPECTS ####: US economy Prospects for the US economy in ####. While the #.#% annualised GDP increase in the third quarter of #### suggests the prolonged, deep US recession has ended, uncertainties loom about the

MEXICO: Tax package MEXICO: Weak tax package may bring downgrade Congress approved most #### revenue legislation on November #. Legislators watered down the original Calderon administration proposals. It is unclear whether what was approved will avoid a significant increase in

UKRAINE: Candidates#; agendas UKRAINE: Candidates offer divergent economic agendas According to poll results released on November # by the respected Razumkov Centre, opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych would win the first round of the presidential election with ##.#% of the

AFRICA: Eritrean isolation AFRICA: Eritrean isolation damages regional security The security implications of Eritrean regional isolation. Eritrea has since the end of its ####-#### war with Ethiopia been cast by its neighbours and the international community as a #;regional

PROSPECTS ####: South-east Asia PROSPECTS ####: South-east Asia Prospects for South-east Asia in ####. As recovery gathers pace, economic policy for #### will be shaped by fiscal retrenchment and a return of inflationary pressures. Strategic summary Vietnam

BALKANS: Organised crime BALKANS: Gangs have ways of frustrating crime-fighters One of those arrested in Serbia over the weekend for drug dealing is the son of a former senior policeman, the Belgrade media reported on November #. According to

PROSPECTS ####: World trade PROSPECTS ####: World trade Prospects for world trade in ####. Trade growth will follow economic recovery, not lead it. Strategic summary Global trade growth will easily outstrip the IMF#;s forecast of #.#% for goods

CONGO-KINSHASA: Conflict and mining CONGO-KINSHASA: Pressure rises over #;conflict mining#; The US Senate is currently considering the draft Congo Conflict Minerals Bill. The bill, while unlikely to pass, reflects increasing advocacy group pressure to regulate the coltan trade

JAPAN: Foreign policy vision JAPAN: Foreign policy is based on coherent vision Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada#;s planned trip to the United States has been cancelled, Tokyo said today. This means he will not meet US Secretary of State

ARMENIA: Property market ARMENIA: Crisis has severe impact on property sector A fall in remittances and a collapse in construction have led to a more severe contraction than expected, the IMF Executive Board observed on November #. The construction sector

LIBYA: Oil and gas outlook LIBYA: Energy policy to remain stable despite changes The outlook for Libyan oil and gas policy. Libya has the potential for substantial growth in oil and gas production and export to Europe. Despite occasionally renewed

EUROPEAN UNION: Summit summary EUROPEAN UNION: EU boosts Lisbon, chokes climate Czech President Vaclav Klaus yesterday signed the ratification of the Lisbon reform treaty. After almost eight years of negotiations on institutional change, the EU has passed the final hurdle

PROSPECTS ####: CEE economies PROSPECTS ####: CEE economies Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) economies in ####. The crisis has led to deep recessions in most of the CEE countries and had a dramatic impact on public finances in all

ARGENTINA: Restructuring redux ARGENTINA: Spending pressures spur new debt swap offer The government is to reopen the #### bond swap to the holders of some ## billion dollars of debt still in default. Nearly five years after the last sovereign

PAKISTAN: Sectarian militancy PAKISTAN: Sectarianism underpins rising terror threat The role of sectarian groups in the present wave of terrorist attacks. The armed forces are reporting success in their present military campaign in South Waziristan, which the government has presented

SOUTH KOREA: By-election signal SOUTH KOREA: Opposition gets by-election boost The main opposition party won three out of five by-elections held on October ##. This is a blow for President Lee Myung-bak. His majority remains secure

ALGERIA: Privatisation politics ALGERIA: Political interests dictate economic reform #;Reform#; and the impasse in Algeria#;s political economy. Serial announcements on reform and liberalisation since the early ####s have rarely been followed by notable results. Despite an apparent #;opening#; to

POLAND: #### budget POLAND: Deficits plague unreformed public finances The draft #### budget going through parliament. The budget, always a controversial issue in Poland, is a particular challenge this year, as the government must rein in the deficit while avoiding

BRAZIL: Financial operations tax BRAZIL: Portfolio inflows tax may crimp stock markets The recent imposition of a #% #;financial operations tax#; (IOF) on portfolio inflows. With the real appreciating rapidly against the dollar, the government has become increasingly worried about

PROSPECTS ####: Russia#;s economy PROSPECTS ####: Russia#;s economy Prospects for Russia#;s economy in ####. There are signs of economic recovery in Russia, following a comparatively large bail-out package and an upswing in the oil price. However

PROSPECTS ####: Euro-area PROSPECTS ####: Euro-area Prospects for the euro-area#;s economy in ####. A weak recovery from the worst global slump since the ####s will not be enough to halt a rise in unemployment or to

COLOMBIA: Intelligence reform COLOMBIA: Intelligence reform would be incomplete Congress is considering legislation for dismantling the Administrative Security Department, Colombia#;s secret police. Proposed reforms may address more of the symptoms than the problems that plague the country#;s intelligence

INDONESIA: Corruption travails INDONESIA: Graft controversy signals challenges ahead President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono today agreed to establish an independent panel to investigate the controversial arrest of two anti-corruption officials last week. Yudhoyono has pledged to tackle corruption as part

PROSPECTS ####: China#;s economy PROSPECTS ####: China#;s economy Prospects for China#;s economy in ####. How China fares next year matters to its region and beyond, as economies worldwide try to pull away from the global economic downturn

UNITED STATES: Policy #;czars#; UNITED STATES: Policy #;czars#; are vital, problematic Kenneth Feinberg, the administration#;s special master for compensation practices (#;pay czar#;) last week said that renegotiating compensation packages at AIG was a priority. The role of White House

CIS: Customs union CIS: Politics override economics of new customs union On November ##, heads of state from Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan will sign agreements to create a trilateral customs union. Moscow has tried to establish a customs union with

AFRICA: Healthcare workers AFRICA: Health professional shortages will be critical The implications of the shortage of healthcare workers in sub-Saharan Africa. New academic research confirms earlier reports that projected shortages of healthcare professionals in sub-Saharan Africa are reaching

PROSPECTS ####: Global economy PROSPECTS ####: Global economy Prospects for the global economy in ####. Weak growth in the mature economies is on the cards. Yet global growth need not falter. Because the developing world now accounts for half of

GERMANY: Shipping slump GERMANY: Economic crisis threatens northern ports The impact of the economic crisis on German shipping funds. Without a speedy recovery of global trade, the collapse in the maritime container freight market will lead to the insolvency of

CENTRAL AMERICA: Crisis consequences CENTRAL AMERICA: Crisis could cause social unrest The political and economic effects of the global crisis on members of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA). The global crisis has particularly affected Central American countries

AFGHANISTAN: Kandahar outlook AFGHANISTAN: Kandahar security is key campaign test The outlook for security in Kandahar. As Afghanistan#;s Pashtun political and cultural heartland, Kandahar is the decisive battleground for southern Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama is considering sending thousands

SOUTH AFRICA: MTBPS signals SOUTH AFRICA: Medium-term budget signals no shift left On October ##, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan presented his first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). By outlining priorities over a three-year horizon, the MTBPS offers

INTERNATIONAL: Saudi sour INTERNATIONAL: Riyadh seeks role for sour crude Saudi Arabia on October ## announced a change to the way it will price crude oil delivered into the US market. Saudi Arabia#;s decision to change the way it

RUSSIA/CHINA: Energy integration RUSSIA/CHINA: Moscow banks on Chinese energy demand Increasing bilateral energy interdependence. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin#;s visit to Beijing earlier this month yielded commercial deals worth #.# billion dollars and a sweeping framework for

WESTERN SAHARA: Dispute outlook WESTERN SAHARA: Deadlock may lead to unilateral moves The Polisario#;s envoy to Paris on October ## denied reports that it would pull out of talks with Morocco if seven recently detained Sahrawi activists were not

ARGENTINA: Political reform ARGENTINA: Political reform has pro-government bias The government presented its draft political reform bill to Congress on October ##. The reform, which would introduce simultaneous, open and obligatory party primaries, does not address opposition demands for

AUSTRIA: SPOe downturn AUSTRIA: Regional defeats challenge SPOe#;s future The recent losses of the Social Democrats (SPOe) at regional elections and their national implications. Recent elections held in Vorarlberg and Upper Austria resulted in heavy losses for the SPOe

JAPAN: Lay jury system JAPAN: Moves increase trial speed and transparency The effect of the introduction of lay juries on criminal justice in Japan. The establishment this year of a lay jury system has implications across the board for criminal

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Disaster preparedness SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Leaders address natural disaster risk Regional leaders on October ## agreed a set of measures to enhance South-east Asia#;s preparedness against natural disasters. Devastation from flooding and other catastrophes is

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Mining outlook SOUTHERN AFRICA: Regional mining outlook improves Prospects for the mining sector in southern Africa. After a traumatic year for the extractive sector, signs of recovery are evident. An increase in commodity prices has come sooner than

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Ra#;s al-Khaimah outlook UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Ra#;s al-Khaimah under stress The outlook for stability in Ra#;s al-Khaimah. The potential for instability was highlighted by a public warning by the exiled former

INTERNATIONAL: Rating agency reform INTERNATIONAL: Reforms close in on rating agencies The US House Committee on Financial Services approved draft legislation yesterday to improve regulation of credit rating agencies. Washington and Brussels have both adopted regulatory reforms regarding credit rating

BOSNIA: Butmir blunders BOSNIA: West washes hands after key talks collapse It is up to the Bosnians to resolve the country#;s political impasse, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt told the EU External Relations Council in Luxembourg on October ##

CAUCASUS: Gender gap CAUCASUS: Position of women is worse than in #### Discrimination against women in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Some of the gains made under the Soviet regime to integrate the #;women of the East#; -- the Caucasus and Central

PERU: Church pressures PERU: Catholic Church flexes muscles on abortion The political influence of the Catholic Church hierarchy in Peru on moral issues. The Church retains great moral authority in Peru. However, its stance on abortion and contraception reveals the

INTERNATIONAL: Dollar surprise? INTERNATIONAL: Dollar could surprise in #### The dollar this week fell to a ##-month low against the euro. The dollar/euro rate has surged from a low of around #.## in early #### to over

UKRAINE: Fiscal pressures UKRAINE: Fiscal pressures lead to rapid rise in debt The opposition Party of Regions yesterday sharply criticised the IMF for calling on President Viktor Yushchenko to veto controversial new legislation on social spending. The government of Prime

CHINA/EUROPE: Courting CEE CHINA/EUROPE: Leader-in-waiting signals CEE interest Vice-President Xi Jinping#;s two-week tour of Belgium, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Xi#;s visit signals the start of a new Chinese diplomatic offensive in

LATIN AMERICA: Populist politics LATIN AMERICA: Populist tradition lives on The influence of populism in contemporary Latin American politics. Populism is a term repeatedly used to describe Latin American politicians and/or their parties, often with a decidedly negative connotation

ISRAEL: OECD entry ISRAEL: OECD entry requires painful political changes The implications of Israel#;s entry into the OECD. Israeli civil servants often use the signing of binding international agreements of the kind required for OECD membership to institute reforms

JAPAN: DPJ government unity JAPAN: Tensions test Hatoyama#;s hold on policy Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama#;s ability to manage coalition and intra-party tensions. Should Hatoyama fail to handle these issues well it would have disruptive consequences for the

INTERNATIONAL: Class INTERNATIONAL: Crisis risks return of #;class#; conflict Class -- what it is and why it matters. Advanced democracies contain significant class distinctions based on differences in income, occupation, life expectancy and education. During periods of economic crisis these are

HUNGARY: Election preview HUNGARY: Election campaign reopens sensitive issues Opposition Fidesz and the extra-parliamentary far-right held rallies in Budapest on October ##. The right is hoping to redraw the political landscape dramatically in upcoming elections. Having handed over

UNITED STATES: Polarised politics UNITED STATES: Polarised politics hurts reform efforts Party polarisation and its impact on congressional legislation and policymakers. With just a single Republican senator tenuously supporting President Barack Obama#;s healthcare reform efforts and uniform Republican opposition

INDIA: Nuclear power outlook INDIA: Delhi forges ahead on nuclear power plans India#;s civilian nuclear programme. Since key diplomatic breakthroughs last year on nuclear energy, the government has set expansive targets, attracted foreign investment pledges and struck fuel supply

GERMANY: New government GERMANY: New coalition defers serious reforms The new Christian Democrat (CDU/CSU)-Free Democrat (FDP) coalition government under Chancellor Angela Merkel will be sworn in on October ##. Several weeks after winning a solid majority in the

RUSSIA: Criminal cabals RUSSIA: Underworld may face new round of gang wars The US Federal Bureau of Investigation on October ## formally placed Semion Mogilevich, a controversial Russian businessman, on its list of ten most-wanted criminals. The US decision

INTERNATIONAL: Islamism and women INTERNATIONAL:Islamic womanhood trumps gender equality The effect of contemporary Islamic movements on women. Islamic groups advocate conservative models of #;Islamic womanhood#; and oppose the legal and social changes in women#;s status advocated by feminist

TAIWAN: Trials of Chen TAIWAN: Chen#;s trials throw an uncomfortable light The High Court on October ## began hearing former President Chen Shui-bian#;s appeal against a life sentence. Chen was convicted of corruption, but the process that

MEXICO: Mining royalties MEXICO: PRI promotes mining royalties Moves from opposition senators to impose royalties on mining production to cover Mexico#;s fiscal deficit. Mexico#;s business-friendly policies and the country#;s rich geological potential have attracted billions of

PHILIPPINES: Election outlook PHILIPPINES: Presidential field narrows for #### poll Aides to former President Joseph Estrada today defended his controversial decision to stand in the May #### presidential election. Amid a series of typhoons and associated natural disasters, the Philippines

MOZAMBIQUE: Pre-poll outlook MOZAMBIQUE: Frelimo heads for win despite upstart MDM General elections will take place on October ##. The ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique is set to consolidate its hold on power. However, there is some uncertainty over

UNITED STATES: Persistent housing slide? UNITED STATES: Housing prices could fall another ##% Sales of existing homes jumped #.#% in September, to an annual rate of #.## million units, the National Association of Realtors reported on October ##

INTERNATIONAL: LNG supply shock? INTERNATIONAL: LNG capacity rising amid demand slump Qatar#;s RasGas # LNG production facility will be completed by the end of the year, the company announced today. The recent investment cycle in LNG is coming to

RUSSIA: Nuclear doctrine RUSSIA: Credibility gap drives down nuclear threshold Expected revisions to military doctrine that will lower the nuclear first-use threshold. Secretary of the National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev has repeatedly suggested that the latest version of Russia

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: Lee#;s #;grand bargain#; SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: Seoul eyes #;grand bargain#; Seoul will send an aid package comprising #.# million dollars#; worth of food to North Korea, according to a Unification Ministry official today

EUROPEAN UNION: Gender equality EUROPEAN UNION: Sweden and Spain push gender equality Prospects for gender equality to become an EU policy priority. Gender equality has been a policy priority for a number of European countries in recent years, beginning in

UNITED STATES: Obama and the right UNITED STATES: Fringe Right does not trouble Obama President Barack Obama#;s opponents on the hard right, and their impact on governability and the mainstream Republican opposition. The growing media prominence of the hard

AFGHANISTAN: Presidential run-off AFGHANISTAN: Risks stalk election run-off A presidential election run-off is scheduled for November #. The prospect of another election is fraught with difficulties from security, logistical and political points of view. There is a

ZAMBIA: MMD friction ZAMBIA: Chiluba verdict makes trouble for MMD Continuing political fallout from the collapse of corruption proceedings against former President Frederick Chiluba. Civil society groups and opposition parties have interpreted the decision as politically motivated, and accuse President

SYRIA: Foreign investment SYRIA: Foreign investment growing fast, but still low President Bashar al-Assad reaffirmed his commitment to increased links with Europe yesterday, despite delays in the signing of the EU Association Agreement. The UN Conference on Trade and

TURKMENISTAN: Energy strategy TURKMENISTAN: Gazprom export monopoly comes to an end Implications of recent developments in the oil and gas sectors. On October ##, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov replaced most senior officials in the oil and gas sectors, citing their "irresponsible

NEW ZEALAND: Forestry industry NEW ZEALAND: Forestry helps break extended recession The forestry industry and the boost from China. Forestry exports have helped lift an industry in the doldrums and provided support for the economy at a tough time. Statistics

CENTRAL EUROPE: Listless leftists CENTRAL EUROPE: Left fails to capitalise on crisis The disarray among social democrats across Central Europe (CE) as they struggle to connect with crisis-struck voters ahead of the next elections. As in Western Europe, the

LATIN AMERICA: Media moves LATIN AMERICA: Media moves risk freedom of expression Recent initiatives that may affect freedom of expression in Latin America. There is an increasingly consolidated trend in the region towards restrictions on the media and the work

BURMA: Than Shwe BURMA: Than Shwe seeks respect but not change A profile of Senior General Than Shwe. Than Shwe has ruled Burma for more than ## years. He will play a key role in determining whether the current warming

CHINA: Climate policy CHINA: Beijing#;s carbon stance is critical Beijing and Delhi agreed yesterday to coordinate their efforts on climate change. China and India are at one in holding developed countries responsible for taking the lead in cutting emissions

EUROPEAN UNION: Risky sciences EUROPEAN UNION: EU weighs innovation over risks The EU#;s debate on how to regulate the application of new technologies in a cost-effective and low-risk manner. One of the most contentious areas of EU

CEE: Post-communist values CEE: EU-## may emerge from crisis more self-confident Changing values in the ten post-communist EU member states (EU-##). Materialist values were strengthened by a lack of consumption goods under communism and during

RUSSIA: Privatisation push RUSSIA: Capital needs underlie privatisation agenda President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday called for a revival of privatisation, suggesting it would help the state reach an "optimal" level of participation in the economy. Medvedev#;s pronouncements follow a number

BRAZIL: Telecoms tactics BRAZIL: Vivendi, Telefonica vie for internet provider Implications of the takeover battle for Brazilian internet provider GVT. Telefonica sees the move as a way to expand its coverage of Sao Paulo and block a new entrant to

TUNISIA: Upcoming elections TUNISIA: Elections will bring no surprises Presidential and legislative elections will be held in Tunisia on October ##. President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali will be elected for a fifth successive term and his ruling party will

UNITED STATES: Republican recovery? UNITED STATES: Republican recovery will be partial President Barack Obama on October ## attended a fundraiser for the Democrats in New York, as the party seeks gradually to replenish its coffers ahead of mid-term congressional

INTERNATIONAL: IT outsourcing risk INTERNATIONAL: IT outsourcing poses risks Xerox#;s #.# billion dollar IT-outsourcing acquisition will tomorrow announce results for the first quarter of fiscal ####. Results from Affiliated Computer Services, recently acquired by Xerox, will signal

SOUTH KOREA/INT: Seoul in the region SOUTH KOREA/INT: Lee pushes Seoul#;s regional agenda South Korea#;s President Lee Myung-bak and Vietnam#;s President Nguyen Minh Triet agreed today to raise their countries#; bilateral relationship to a

ISRAEL: Forex interventions ISRAEL: Bank interventions show forex reserves concern Senior officials at the Bank of Israel (BoI) held an extraordinary meeting on October ## with the country#;s leading financial market traders. In the related press release, the bank

GEORGIA: Simulated stimulus? GEORGIA: Economic policy is more show than substance The government announced a "new wave of privatisation" on October ##. The government says it wants to reduce the state#;s role in the economy, but its approach has

CHILE: Uncertain elections CHILE: Presidential elections appear increasingly open Independent presidential candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami is tied with the governing coalition#;s candidate, Eduardo Frei, on ##% of voting intentions, according to a poll published yesterday. Less than two months

INTERNATIONAL: Climate adaptation INTERNATIONAL: Climate change adaptation costs soar Funding and managing climate change adaptation. Recent studies on the impact of climate change suggest that the cost of adaptation and mitigation for developing countries will be two to three times