Oxford Analytica

PROSPECTS ####: South Korea and North Korea PROSPECTS ####: South Korea and North Korea Prospects for South Korea and North Korea in #### An economic recovery in South Korea matters in itself but also to popular assessments of President Lee

INTERNATIONAL: OECD Economic Outlook INTERNATIONAL: Global growth becomes less US-centric The OECD yesterday forecast world growth of #.#% in ####. The OECD#;s baseline forecast projects a world in which the US household savings rate is unchanged from

TURKEY: Kurdish reform outlook TURKEY: Kurdish reform to be slow but positive On November ##, five inmates were transferred to the island prison where Kurdistan Workers#; Party leader Abdullah Ocalan is held, ending his decade of solitary confinement. This follows

CUBA: Continuing austerity CUBA: Austerity trumps reform for now The government#;s warning of a return to energy blackouts in ####, as state capacity shrinks. The government is gradually cutting state subsidies and preparing to lay off excess staff in

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Black carbon SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: War on black carbon can be won Climate change and black carbon. Black carbon could be responsible for a large proportion of Arctic warming, and have effects elsewhere. In Asia, it is removing moisture

RUSSIA: Military reform RUSSIA: New army structure takes shape December # marks the deadline for the Russian army to transition to a brigade-based force. The past year has seen the most sweeping structural reforms to the Russian military in

PROSPECTS ####: East Africa and the Great Lakes PROSPECTS ####: East Africa and the Great Lakes Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in ####. The region will see continued, though uneven, economic recovery -- the focus on economic growth

PROSPECTS ####: Germany PROSPECTS ####: Germany Prospects for Germany#;s economy and politics in ####. Following a nervous election year amid a severe economic recession, Germany can look forward to a modest economic recovery. On the political front, the new

KOSOVO: Local elections KOSOVO: Local vote is small step forward Kosovo held local elections on November ##. The successful holding of the first post-independence elections marks an important step for Kosovo. However, while Serb participation was higher than some

PROSPECTS ####: West Africa PROSPECTS ####: West Africa Prospects for West Africa in ####. Investment-led economic recovery during #### will be overshadowed by crises of governance and security in Guinea, Ivory Coast and Togo, with each potentially holding high

INDIA: Police problems INDIA: Police failures harm growth and human rights The Central Bureau of Investigation is questioning three policemen over the alleged extra-judicial killing of a student in Dehra Dun in July. India is an emerging economic power

PAKISTAN/CENTRAL ASIA: Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan PAKISTAN/CENTRAL ASIA: IMU may return to its roots A profile of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU, having been largely subordinated to the Taliban in Pakistan, is beginning to reorient

PROSPECTS ####: US politics PROSPECTS ####: US politics The prospects for US politics in ####. Mid-term congressional elections in November #### will become a preoccupation after the first quarter of the year, creating a de facto deadline for action

YEMEN/SAUDI ARABIA: Escalating rebellion YEMEN/SAUDI ARABIA: Riyadh may face policy rethink Yemen#;s government reported yesterday that it had killed two leaders of the northern rebel movement. The latest escalation of the rebellion and Saudi Arabia#;s involvement

PROSPECTS ####: Mexico PROSPECTS ####: Mexico Prospects for Mexico in ####. The administration of President Felipe Calderon lacks a comprehensive medium-term reform agenda. This means that it is likely to waste the last year in which it can take

BRAZIL: Climate credentials BRAZIL: Climate credentials to the fore in Copenhagen Brazil#;s position at the forthcoming Copenhagen climate summit. The government of Brazil, the world#;s fifth larger emitter of greenhouse gases, has undertaken to reduce clearances of the

SRI LANKA: Political outlook SRI LANKA: Victory turns sour for Rajapakse Former army chief General Sarath Fonseka indicated on November ## that he may stand as a presidential candidate. The sudden emergence of a high-profile challenger has forced President

PROSPECTS ####: Japan PROSPECTS ####: Japan The prospects for Japan in ####. Voters will judge the Democratic Party of Japan on its short record in government at the upper house election in ####, which will decide whether it takes full

ARMENIA: Dawdling demography ARMENIA: Population remains below late-Soviet levels Unfavourable population trends in Armenia. The demographic situation is a reflection of economic development and political stability. In Armenia#;s case, population numbers are barely rising and there are age

AUSTRALIA/COLOMBIA: RMBS market AUSTRALIA/COLOMBIA: Mortgage securities offer lessons The experiences of Australia and Colombia in residential mortgage securitisation. The residential mortgage sector in both countries has remained healthy throughout the global economic crisis. Their experiences speak directly to

TURKEY: Foreign policy TURKEY: Foreign policy spurs concern in West On November ##, Turkey offered to store low-enriched uranium for Iran, in response to a UN proposal that Tehran send its uranium to a third country. Turkey#;s mediation

GHANA: Oil curse? GHANA: Government has the tools to avoid #;oil curse#; Ghana#;s ability to manage its oil revenues successfully. Although the deleterious effects of oil wealth in such countries as Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria are frequently noted

PROSPECTS ####: France PROSPECTS ####: France Prospects for France in ####. With poor poll ratings and a struggling economy, President Nicolas Sarkozy will proceed cautiously on reforms. However, he may avoid major damage to his government thanks to the weakness

PROSPECTS ####: Venezuela PROSPECTS ####: Venezuela Prospects for Venezuela in ####. A highly conflictive year can be expected as the ruling party battles to retain control of the National Assembly in elections scheduled for September. Strategic summary The #### legislative

US/INTERNATIONAL: Airline alliances US/INTERNATIONAL: Slump aids airline rationalisation Moves towards deeper global airline alliances, and their effect on the industry. The European Commission#;s competition authority wants to force American Airlines, British Airways (BA) and Spain#;s Iberia

SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Food outlook SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Challenges loom on food security Delegates at the World Food Summit in Rome today discussed soaring Asian demand for agricultural produce. The key food exporting countries of South-east Asia have benefited

SOUTH AFRICA: Eskom row SOUTH AFRICA: Eskom row compounds energy crisis Bobby Godsell yesterday confirmed his resignation as chairman of South African state-owned power utility Eskom. Godsell#;s resignation -- part of a board-room row that also saw the

US/JAPAN: Alliance tensions US/JAPAN: Obama visit leaves alliance questions President Barack Obama ended an official visit to Japan on November ##. His first visit to the country has eased tensions. However, it also passed over divisive issues that

CZECH/EU: Klaus consequences CZECH/EU: Klaus opt-out #;victory#; will be short lived Prime Minister Jan Fischer deposited the Czech copy of the Lisbon Treaty in Rome on November ##, allowing it to come into effect on December #

RUSSIA: Nashi nationalism RUSSIA: Nashi poses challenge for Medvedev#;s agenda The role of the pro-Kremlin #;Nashi#; youth movement in domestic politics. In honour of National Unity Day on November #, Nashi gathered ##,###-##,### young Russians

PROSPECTS ####: United Kingdom PROSPECTS ####: United Kingdom Prospects for the United Kingdom in ####. Politics will be dominated by the economy and by the general election. Europe and immigration, as well as the parliamentary expenses scandal, may also prove

PROSPECTS ####: Argentina PROSPECTS ####: Argentina Prospects for Argentina in ####. Partial recovery of the global economy and the easing of a severe drought point to some improvement in the economic outlook, after an anaemic ####. However, the government#;s

INTERNATIONAL: Sugar market INTERNATIONAL: Supply signals send sugar surging EU member states today continue discussions on regulations fixing the amount of production payments for the sugar sector. The European Court of Justice in #### ruled that sugar production payments have

PROSPECTS ####: India PROSPECTS ####: India Prospects for India in ####. Political stability and strong domestic consumption will help India resume its path towards greater prosperity next year. The risks to this outlook arise from possible cabinet disagreements and regional

PROSPECTS ####: US Asia policy PROSPECTS ####: US Asia policy Prospects for US Asia policy in ####. Washington will confront several major regional policy challenges -- and possible crises -- in #### that cannot be resolved with goodwill gestures. For Japan and

MIDDLE EAST: Peace process alternatives MIDDLE EAST: One-state idea set to gain prominence Alternatives to the #;two-state#; solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In recent years, talk of a #;last chance#; for the two-state solution has become

CHINA: Renewable energy CHINA: Beijing forges ahead with renewable energy China#;s pursuit of renewable sources of energy. Rapid GDP growth has made major demands on energy, but a heavy reliance on fossil fuels has had devastating environmental consequences. Accordingly

RUSSIA: Private equity RUSSIA: Private equity poised for rapid rebound Recent developments in and prospects for the private equity industry. In October, Interros and JP Morgan announced the creation of a # billion dollar private equity fund targeted at Russian

PERU: Mining boom PERU: Mining boom is set to continue Prospects for the mining sector. Peru is well placed to benefit from continued high demand for minerals in Asian countries, especially China. The government is committed to policies to attract

PROSPECTS ####: European Union PROSPECTS ####: European Union Prospects for the European Union in ####. After a tumultuous year with a second Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and rumblings about its eventual adoption in Prague and Warsaw, the EU

INDIA: Higher education INDIA: University system to welcome foreign investors The government will shortly table a bill opening the higher education sector to foreign investment, Minister for Human Resource Development Kapil Sibal said on November #. With demand for university

INTERNATIONAL: Whither tax havens INTERNATIONAL: G## puts end to tax havens Singapore today became the latest in a flurry of jurisdictions complying with OECD standards on transparency and exchange of information for tax purposes. Fifteen jurisdictions have come into compliance

CANADA: Demographic change CANADA: Demographic shifts will boost growth, West Demographic change in Canada, and its political and economic implications. Canada#;s population grew sharply from ####-##, though with important regional variations. Such growth is almost entirely attributable to

TAIWAN: December elections TAIWAN: Tests for both main parties as polls loom The local elections of December #. These will be the first large-scale test of popularity for Taiwan#;s ruling Kuomintang since it took power in mid-####

PROSPECTS ####: Turkey PROSPECTS ####: Turkey Prospects for Turkey in ####. The economy is expected to pick up after the recession. The government initiative to improve Kurdish rights will dominate domestic politics and affect foreign policy -- and the associated break

RUSSIA: Second state-of-the-nation RUSSIA: Policy frailty undercuts Medvedev#;s agenda President Dmitry Medvedev gave his annual address to parliament yesterday. Medvedev used his second annual state-of-the-nation address to urge the ruling elite and ordinary

PROSPECTS ####: Balkans PROSPECTS ####: Balkans Prospects for the Balkans in ####. International efforts to resolve long-outstanding conflicts in the still volatile western Balkans will need to be sustained if progress is to be made. Strategic summary Bosnian elections

JAMAICA: Continuing crime crisis JAMAICA: Continuing crime crisis challenges Golding Impact of the November # resignation of Police Commissioner Hardley Lewin. The government appears to be making little headway against violent crime, one of its main campaign platforms and a

GEORGIA: Uncivil society? GEORGIA: Church row points to post-war soul-searching The row over a video mocking the head of the Orthodox Church. The controversy has sparked a passionate discussion on freedoms of debate and religion, tolerance and identity

UNITED STATES: Productivity and recovery UNITED STATES:Productivity surge boosts growth outlook The impact of surging productivity on the US economic outlook. The corporate sector has slashed costs over the past year, eliminating over # million jobs and trimming the

LEBANON: Government outlook LEBANON: Cabinet splits will hamper effective action Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri announced the formation of a national unity government on November #. The conflicting agendas of the two main rival camps represented in the new government

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Disease interplay SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY: Disease control is becoming harder The interplay between human and animal disease. Experts on #;zoonotic diseases#; -- which can be transmitted between animals and humans -- and health policy argue that it is no longer acceptable

ARGENTINA: Poverty programme ARGENTINA: Government expands family allowances A new programme of family allowances for unemployed and informal workers will be launched on December #. The new programme marks a departure from the government#;s previous #;trickle-down#; approach to

BULGARIA: Dangerous obsessions BULGARIA: New premier focuses on paying off scores The pro-government majority in parliament yesterday threatened President Georgi Parvanov with impeachment if he continued to block the recall of ambassadors. The impeachment threat is the latest and

PROSPECTS ####: Pakistan PROSPECTS ####: Pakistan Prospects for Pakistan in ####. The country#;s political crisis may come to a head next year, with implications for both domestic and international security. Strategic summary The Zardari government is highly unlikely to

EUROPE: Social pacts EUROPE: Work agreements will survive recession Social pacts and the economic crisis. Over the last two decades, many European democracies have enjoyed the benefits of social pacts between trade unions, employers and governments to create mutually agreeable

CHINA/EU: Car coupling CHINA/EU: Booming sales empower Chinese motors China#;s domestic car sales rose ##% year-on-year in October, the domestic auto industry association announced on November #. Sales of #.# million cars and trucks

RUSSIA: Oil pipeline strategy RUSSIA: Oil pipelines aim to bypass transit states Implications of Russia#;s oil export infrastructure strategy. Last month, Russian oil production exceeded ## million barrels/day for the first time in the post-Soviet era. Increasing

PROSPECTS ####: Iran PROSPECTS ####: Iran Prospects for Iran#;s domestic politics and foreign policy in ####. The reform movement and the international community will face difficult choices in the coming year about how to live with a radical conservative

JAPAN: Postal U-turn JAPAN: Postal privatisation reverses for now Privatisation of Japan#;s vast postal savings network has gone into reverse. The freezing of proposed sales of shares in the entity#;s postal savings and insurance arms, together with

PROSPECTS ####: Horn of Africa and Sudan PROSPECTS ####: Horn of Africa and Sudan Prospects for the Horn of Africa and Sudan in ####. Elections in Sudan, Ethiopia and Somaliland -- as well as continuing challenges to the Transitional Federal Government

HAITI: Pierre-Louis replacement HAITI: New prime minister has political base Implications of the recent replacement of Michele Pierre-Louis as prime minister. The international donor community and prospective foreign investors regard Pierre-Louis#;s departure as a setback. Jean

INTERNATIONAL: Google books INTERNATIONAL: Google battles for digitisation rights A settlement between Google and a US court on the digitisation of books is expected this week. Google will present to a US court a new version of its proposed settlement

PARAGUAY: Coup claims PARAGUAY: Coup claims may distract from Lugo failings President Fernando Lugo replaced the overall commander of the armed forces on November #, two days after sacking the heads of the army, navy and air force. The surprise

AFGHANISTAN: Government formation AFGHANISTAN: Much hinges on Karzai#;s new cabinet Negotiations are underway over cabinet posts ahead of President Hamid Karzai#;s inauguration on November ##. Karzai will use his authority over cabinet appointments to incorporate key political players

UNITED STATES: California water reform UNITED STATES: California water reform costly, partial California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed legislation on November # authorising a major overhaul of the state#;s water infrastructure and regulation. California has struggled for decades to address

INTERNATIONAL: Supporting African elections INTERNATIONAL: Donors boost support for African polls The role of the international community in creating the necessary conditions for peaceful elections to take place. A number of countries prone to instability are due to hold elections

PROSPECTS ####: China#;s politics and foreign policy PROSPECTS ####: China#;s politics and foreign policy Prospects for China#;s politics and foreign policy in ####. Beijing faces a constant struggle maintaining stability at a time of rapid economic and

BOLIVIA: Election race BOLIVIA: MAS leads December election race Countdown to presidential and legislative elections on December #. With President Evo Morales almost certain to win re-election in the first round of voting, the real contest is over whether

KAZAKHSTAN: Timur Kulibayev KAZAKHSTAN: Kulibayev primed for national leadership A profile of Timur Kulibayev, the dominant figure in Kazakhstan#;s energy sector. Kulibayev#;s ties to President Nursultan Nazarbayev place him firmly in Astana#;s inner circle of power, and

VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA: Deteriorating diplomacy VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA: Tense relations raise border risks Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on November # told the armed forces to prepare for the possibility of war with Colombia. A spate of diplomatic and violent border incidents and

EUROPE: Airline emissions EUROPE: Airlines catch up with climate change policies The efforts of air carriers to adapt to the fight against global warming. The global air transport industry -- airlines, aircraft manufacturers and airport operators -- has pledged to reduce carbon

INDONESIA: Policy agenda INDONESIA: Path to #% growth will be difficult President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on November # outlined a plan of work for his administration#;s first ### days. The programme addresses many of the key obstacles to Yudhoyono

EASTERN EUROPE: Theories of transition EASTERN EUROPE: Choices not determinism shape change Leaders gather in Berlin today to mark the ##th anniversary of the fall of the Wall. Uncertainty within the German Democratic Republic government about the timing and management

PROSPECTS ####: International terrorism PROSPECTS ####: International terrorism Prospects for the international campaign against terrorism in ####. The threat from transnational terrorism remains serious, but will become more diffuse as al-Qaida evolves under pressure from a centralised body to

JAPAN: Exchange programmes JAPAN: Exchange policy gives lift to regional profile Japan#;s exchange programmes, part of building the human infrastructure for the East Asian community. Despite scepticism about limited organisational capacity and a lack of pooled sovereignty, new networks

SOUTH AFRICA: Defence readiness SOUTH AFRICA: Strikes highlight SANDF capacity issues Questions over the discipline and readiness of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). Military trade unions staged violent protests in late August against working conditions and pay levels

EL SALVADOR: Arena disarray EL SALVADOR: Arena disarray may favour gradual change The right-wing opposition Arena party split into hostile factions. Even the ruling Frente Farabundo Marti para la Liberacion Nacional (FMLN) is dismayed at the decomposition of the

PROSPECTS ####: Russia#;s foreign policy PROSPECTS ####: Russia#;s foreign policy Prospects for Russia#;s foreign policy in ####. There are signs that the authorities intend to pursue a more cooperative foreign policy in #### than they have in

UNITED KINGDOM: MPC QE UNITED KINGDOM: MPC copes with UK recession The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to extend quantitative easing (QE) on November #. The Bank of England#;s MPC is continuing its unorthodox programme of asset purchases, known

TAJIKISTAN: State-business relations TAJIKISTAN: Vested interests limit reform prospects The evolution of state control over key industrial assets. In the past two years, press reports, litigation in the United Kingdom and an Ernst & Young audit have revealed a number

PROSPECTS ####: Oil PROSPECTS ####: Oil Prospects for the oil market in ####. Weak fundamentals do not rule out high prices as recovery takes hold and markets look ahead to a potential second oil price spike. Strategic summary Oil demand

EGYPT: NDP conference EGYPT: Gamal#;s position bolstered at NDP conference The National Democratic Party#;s (NDP#;s) Sixth Annual Conference took place between October ## and November #. The NDP is largely unchallenged in the political arena, with opposition

BRAZIL: Sports splurge BRAZIL: World Cup, Olympics may bring few benefits The impact of hosting the #### football World Cup and #### Olympic Games. Brazil will host the World Cup, the world#;s most popular sporting event, in ####, and

PROSPECTS ####: International climate policy PROSPECTS ####: International climate policy Prospects for international climate policy in ####. The Copenhagen conference on climate change takes place from December #-##, with negotiations across all climate policy dimensions. Domestic political debates within

EU/UK: Working time regulations EU/UK: Institutions bicker over Working Time Directive The European Commission will in the coming weeks begin its second attempt to overhaul EU rules on working time. The complex processes by which the directive was

INDIA: Naxalite threat INDIA: Industrial growth feeds Naxalite resistance Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaran today discussed new government efforts to combat the spread of Naxalites in India#;s so-called #;red corridor#;. These revolutionary communist rebels have long dominated remote forest

URUGUAY: Second round URUGUAY: Election result shows even Left-Right split A presidential run-off election will be held on November ##. The leftist Frente Amplio retained its legislative majority in the October ## elections, but did not receive the

IRAN: Security establishment IRAN: IRGC rise increases the influence of radicals The Basij militia and Tehran police clashed violently with opposition protesters yesterday, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened tough action against anyone hijacking the official November #

NEW ZEALAND: Capital raising NEW ZEALAND: Meat and dairy make capitalisation moves Meat and dairy company capitalisations. Moves have been made to bring in new capital at Silver Fern Farms, the leading meat producer. Fonterra, one of the world#;s

PROSPECTS ####: US economy PROSPECTS ####: US economy Prospects for the US economy in ####. While the #.#% annualised GDP increase in the third quarter of #### suggests the prolonged, deep US recession has ended, uncertainties loom about the

MEXICO: Tax package MEXICO: Weak tax package may bring downgrade Congress approved most #### revenue legislation on November #. Legislators watered down the original Calderon administration proposals. It is unclear whether what was approved will avoid a significant increase in

UKRAINE: Candidates#; agendas UKRAINE: Candidates offer divergent economic agendas According to poll results released on November # by the respected Razumkov Centre, opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych would win the first round of the presidential election with ##.#% of the

AFRICA: Eritrean isolation AFRICA: Eritrean isolation damages regional security The security implications of Eritrean regional isolation. Eritrea has since the end of its ####-#### war with Ethiopia been cast by its neighbours and the international community as a #;regional

PROSPECTS ####: South-east Asia PROSPECTS ####: South-east Asia Prospects for South-east Asia in ####. As recovery gathers pace, economic policy for #### will be shaped by fiscal retrenchment and a return of inflationary pressures. Strategic summary Vietnam

BALKANS: Organised crime BALKANS: Gangs have ways of frustrating crime-fighters One of those arrested in Serbia over the weekend for drug dealing is the son of a former senior policeman, the Belgrade media reported on November #. According to

PROSPECTS ####: World trade PROSPECTS ####: World trade Prospects for world trade in ####. Trade growth will follow economic recovery, not lead it. Strategic summary Global trade growth will easily outstrip the IMF#;s forecast of #.#% for goods

CONGO-KINSHASA: Conflict and mining CONGO-KINSHASA: Pressure rises over #;conflict mining#; The US Senate is currently considering the draft Congo Conflict Minerals Bill. The bill, while unlikely to pass, reflects increasing advocacy group pressure to regulate the coltan trade

JAPAN: Foreign policy vision JAPAN: Foreign policy is based on coherent vision Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada#;s planned trip to the United States has been cancelled, Tokyo said today. This means he will not meet US Secretary of State

ARMENIA: Property market ARMENIA: Crisis has severe impact on property sector A fall in remittances and a collapse in construction have led to a more severe contraction than expected, the IMF Executive Board observed on November #. The construction sector