Oxford Analytica

SOUTH AFRICA: Consumer credit bubble? SOUTH AFRICA: Data mar credit bubble risk analysis The risk of a consumer credit bubble. South Africa has since #### registered explosive growth -- ##% year-on-year -- in unsecured household debt levels. There is broad

AFGHANISTAN: NATO summit AFGHANISTAN: NATO summit worsens post-#### outlook At the NATO summit concluded yesterday, the alliance adopted US plans to end the current military mission in Afghanistan and transfer security to Afghan forces regardless of prevailing conditions in

UNITED STATES: Public sector employment UNITED STATES: Public sector job recovery will be slow Continuing public sector layoffs, and when they may abate. President Barack Obama#;s #### stimulus package helped many state and local governments temporarily avoid mass layoffs

GREECE/ARGENTINA: Convincing comparison? GREECE/ARGENTINA: Comparisons ignore key differences Lessons for Greece from the #### Argentine default. Numerous commentators have suggested that the Argentine default in #### offers a potential example to Greece as an alternative road out of

CHINA/US: Cyber espionage CHINA/US: China#;s cyber-spying strategy carries costs Chinese cyber espionage in US-China relations. The Pentagon#;s annual report to Congress on China#;s military power, published May ##, took aim at Chinese telecoms

SOMALIA: Roadmap bumps SOMALIA: Push to follow Roadmap carries risks Somalia#;s main transitional leaders are meeting in Ethiopia this week for talks on implementing the #;Roadmap#;. Somalia#;s biggest Western donors, and the leaders of the Transitional Federal Government

INTERNATIONAL: Global manufacturing INTERNATIONAL: Manufacturing faces rough ride Global manufacturing outlook. Setting aside a technical surge in manufacturing growth in Japan compared with last year#;s tsunami-driven slump, global industrial performance currently ranges from lacklustre growth to outright recession

AZERBAIJAN: Eurovision embarrassment AZERBAIJAN: Eurovision spotlight will change nothing Baku hosts the Eurovision Song Contest this week. The event gives Azerbaijan an opportunity to display how #;modern#; and #;European#; it is. However, domestic opposition groups and the international human rights

SENEGAL: New government#;s agenda SENEGAL: New government faces familiar challenges Prospects for Senegal#;s new government. Senegal#;s peaceful post-election transmission of power two months ago coincided and contrasted with neighbouring Mali#;s military coup. Instability in Mali

SOUTH KOREA: Vilified chaebol SOUTH KOREA: Chaebol come under fire in election year Political pressure on South Korean conglomerates. A leading ruling-party figure on May ## called for curbs on the power of conglomerates (chaebol). Lee Hye-hoon, who

INDIA: State finances INDIA: State-level reform strengthens fiscal position Regional state government finances. While the poor quality of governance has drawn much public criticism over recent months, significantly less attention has been paid to one area of government where

RUSSIA: Weakened government RUSSIA: New cabinet is more liberal, but less powerful President Vladimir Putin yesterday unveiled the new cabinet. The line-up was announced two weeks later than anticipated, partly reflecting the inability of Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry

GULF STATES: Long-term energy outlook GULF STATES: Energy export role faces long-term risks Long-term energy trends in the Gulf states. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have the most prodigious energy reserves in the world. The region

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Presidential elections DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Medina win means policy continuity The Dominican Republic elected Danilo Medina from the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) president May ##. Medina beat Hipolito Mejia, who had been president during the ####-## financial

SERBIA: Ivica Dacic SERBIA: Milosevic successor increases his influence A profile of Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) leader Ivica Dacic. The impressive performance of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)-led coalition in the May # parliamentary elections and the

GERMANY: Joerg Asmussen GERMANY: ECB#;s Asmussen will play key role in crisis A profile of Joerg Asmussen, a member of the ECB#;s Executive Board. ECB board member Joerg Asmussen has emerged as a leader of a new ECB

WEST AFRICA: Gold sector WEST AFRICA: Informal mining challenges gold firms Artisanal mining in West Africa. West Africa hosts world-class gold deposits in various geological formations extending from Burkina Faso and Ghana to Senegal. In recent years, the combination

IRAN: Nuclear talks IRAN: Nuclear deal would buy time for more talks International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Yukiya Amano is meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran today ahead of crucial international talks in Baghdad on May ##. Tensions

CHINA: CSR CHINA: Government turns to CSR as a policy tool Corporate social responsibility in China. Although foreign multinationals commonly invest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) in their home markets, they have typically neglected to engage with stakeholders other than

RUSSIA: Opposition radicalisation? RUSSIA: Putin#;s system appears increasingly brittle The hardening of opposition and government strategies for managing anti-Kremlin sentiment. The presidential inauguration of Vladimir Putin and appointment of Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister earlier this month revitalised

BRAZIL: Affirmative action BRAZIL: Affirmative action ruled constitutional On May ## the Supreme Court unanimously upheld the University of Brasilia#;s quota system reserving ##% of places for black students. Since late April the Court has taken a series of

INTERNATIONAL: Heavy minerals outlook INTERNATIONAL: Heavy minerals face falling prices Heavy minerals producers have suffered double-digit losses in equity markets this month. Heavy mineral sands have until recently outperformed other metals and materials, benefitting, belatedly, from fast-rising demand

US/EU: Euro contagion risk US/EU: Euro chaos would hit US economy and politics President Barack Obama on May ## sought to persuade European leaders to take a more aggressive approach to tackling the euro-area crisis during the

INTERNATIONAL: FAO land tenures guidelines INTERNATIONAL: Guidelines to reduce land tenure risks The Committee on World Food Security (CFA), organised by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on May ##, endorsed voluntary guidelines for land tenure. Since the sharp

SUDANS: Peace talks pressure SUDANS: Peace talks will struggle to gain momentum African Union (AU) mediator Thabo Mbeki arrived in the region yesterday to push for resumption of talks between the two Sudans. South Sudan and Sudan have been on

INDIA: Labour reforms INDIA: Deregulation will not resolve labour problems Labour reforms and labour structure. Advocates of accelerated economic reform often emphasise the need to deregulate the labour market, to endow with it with greater flexibility in keeping with increased

ANGOLA: Non-oil economy ANGOLA: Non-oil economy will remain below potential Prospects for Angolan economic diversification. Angola#;s leaders repeatedly express their commitment to diversifying the economy. In particular, both the government and foreign investors recognise the potential to

RUSSIA: Asset grabs RUSSIA: Business groups try to address asset grabs The persistence of corporate raiding, and civil society efforts to combat it. For years, both President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev have called for improvements in the

JAPAN: Q# GDP JAPAN: Broader economic recovery could take hold Japan#;s real seasonally adjusted GDP rose an annualised #.#% in the first quarter of #### -- double most forecasts. Solid expansion of household consumption and government investment fuelled this

ARGENTINA: Political pressures ARGENTINA: President faces rising political pressures On May ## a federal judge ordered further investigations into allegations of influence-peddling and illegal enrichment against Vice-President Amado Boudou. Opposition legislators aim to begin impeachment proceedings against Boudou

EU/IRAN: Energy ties EU/IRAN: Embargo will have long-term impact Iran is due to resume talks on its nuclear programme with the EU and other world powers in Baghdad next week. The main determinants of the EU#;s

EUROPEAN UNION: State aid policy reform EUROPEAN UNION: New state aid strategy faces hurdles The European Commission#;s new strategy for state aid policy. The European Commission this month unveiled a new strategy for its policy on state aid, which

UNITED STATES: #;Taxageddon#; risk? UNITED STATES: Fear of a fiscal debacle is excessive House Speaker John Boehner on May ## described the approach of the statutory federal #;debt ceiling#; as a welcome "action-forcing event". The Republican leader vowed that

SOUTH AFRICA: Regulatory burdens SOUTH AFRICA: Empowerment bill to lift compliance cost Changes to black empowerment laws. In coming weeks, parliament will debate a bill to amend the #### Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BB-BEE) Act. The long-awaited

PHILIPPINES: Reform outlook PHILIPPINES: Reform efforts meet with limited success The outlook for political and structural reform. President Benigno #;Noynoy#; Aquino#;s landslide victory in the May #### election carried the promise of positive political and economic policy change. His

JORDAN: Reform pressures JORDAN: Economic problems provide reform impetus King Abdullah called yesterday for the swift implementation of political reforms and the holding of parliamentary elections before the end of the year. Introduced in response to the Arab uprisings of

MEXICO: Telecoms regulation MEXICO: Telecoms regulator becomes more intrusive Outlook for telecoms regulation. Mexico#;s anti-trust regulator Cofeco (CFC) recently informed the country#;s largest mobile operator, Telcel, that it had decided not to impose a historic ## billion

RUSSIA: Far Eastern Republic? RUSSIA: New state corporation would dominate Far East The establishment of a new state corporation for Siberia and the Russian Far East. President Vladimir Putin has authorised the creation of a Kremlin-centred State Corporation for

WEST AFRICA: Mano River infrastructure WEST AFRICA: Infrastructure deficit plagues new mining Mano River Union infrastructure prospects. The original Mano River Union (MRU) countries -- Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone -- host some of the world#;s richest undeveloped or under-development

GREECE: New elections GREECE: Elections may spark euro exit and contagion President Karolos Papoulias said yesterday that talks to form a coalition had failed and that the country will hold another election on June ##. The failure to form a

EGYPT: New constitution EGYPT: Islamist-military ties will shape constitution Political groups have failed to resolve a disagreement over the composition of the assembly set to write Egypt#;s first post-uprising constitution, MP Sobhi Saleh said yesterday. The process

US/IRAN: Israeli strike responses US/IRAN: Washington plots response if Israelis strike How Washington might respond in the event of an Israeli strike against Iran. Despite the resumption of negotiations, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei#;s reiteration of a fatwa

BRAZIL/US: Defence diplomacy BRAZIL/US: Defence diplomacy seeks closer ties Efforts to boost bilateral defence ties. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta#;s visit to Brazil in late April sought to bolster bilateral cooperation in the realm of security and

JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA: Military cooperation JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA: Edging towards a #;virtual#; alliance Japan and South Korea are due this month to sign their first bilateral military agreements. Tokyo and Seoul have maintained tense security relations in the post-war

CONGO-KINSHASA: Eastern security CONGO-KINSHASA: Kinshasa asserts new authority in east Some of those displaced from around Rutshuru in North Kivu were reported yesterday to have started returning during a lull in clashes between the Congolese army (FARDC) and

EUROPEAN UNION: Green growth EUROPEAN UNION: Austerity threatens green growth plans The effect of the recession on Europe#;s green growth agenda. For years, the European Commission has considered the #;green economy#; to be a source of innovation, growth and

INTERNATIONAL: Business and human rights INTERNATIONAL: Firms move slowly on human rights norms UN human rights norms for business. Next month marks a year since states, through the United Nations, endorsed the Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. States

GULF STATES: Saudi-Bahrain union GULF STATES: Saudi-Bahrain union would formalise ties The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) failed to agree on steps towards closer union at a summit in Riyadh yesterday. Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and the United

BURMA: Key players BURMA: Multiple forces are re-shaping the country Key institutions and political players in Burma. A landslide victory by Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in the April # by

RUSSIA: Politics of religion RUSSIA: Orthodox Church support for Putin may backfire The changing role of the Russian Orthodox Church amid mounting political tensions. While over three-quarters of Russians claim allegiance to the Moscow Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox

COLOMBIA: Trade agreement COLOMBIA: Trade deal challenges government to reform The US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) comes into effect today, over six years after negotiators reached preliminary agreement. For Colombia, the long-term political and economic success of the

INTERNATIONAL: Oil price fall? INTERNATIONAL: Oil prices face medium-term decline The outlook for oil prices. The drop in oil prices since early April largely reflects increasing perception that tensions over the Iranian nuclear programme might be resolved peacefully and

NIGERIA: Security outlook NIGERIA: Insurgency feeds on incoherent security aims The security outlook. A new round of terrorist attacks by Boko Haram insurgents underlines the increasingly problematic nature of doing business in the #;arc of insecurity#; spread across parts of

JAPAN: TPP healthcare JAPAN: Government uses FTA to push health reform Implications of the TransPacific Partnership free trade agreement for Japan#;s healthcare system. The Japan Medical Association, Japan Dental Association and Japan Pharmacists#; Association issued a declaration last month

CENTRAL ASIA: Water-energy nexus CENTRAL ASIA: Water and energy needs collide Divergent national priorities for water usage, and the wider impact on regional security. Tensions have mounted over Dushanbe#;s proposed Rogun hydroelectric plant, manifesting in April as a

SYRIA: Opposition splits SYRIA: Opposition splits cloud transition prospects Anti-regime forces killed ## Syrian soldiers in the central town of Rastan today, opposition activists reported. During the uprising, a number of factions have attempted to organise the protesters and

UNITED STATES: #;Whistleblower#; lawsuits UNITED STATES: Corporate #;whistleblower#; suits expand Growing corporate exposure to #;whistleblower#; lawsuits. Statutory changes that provide cash bounties to those who report private sector misconduct (#;whistleblowers#;) have stimulated a flurry of tips about alleged corporate misdeeds

BOLIVIA: Mining law BOLIVIA: Mining law will boost investment Outlook for a new mining law. A new mining law, under discussion for the past two years, is likely to be approved this year. This will provide a framework for future

EUROPEAN UNION: EIB EUROPEAN UNION: Stronger EIB will have limited impact The likely use of the European Investment Bank to finance new growth initiatives in the EU. Much of the debate in Europe has shifted away from austerity towards a

UNITED KINGDOM/AFRICA: UK aid UNITED KINGDOM/AFRICA: Politics shapes aid patterns UK aid to Africa. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Africa has attracted substantial popular and media criticism in recent years. The attention is reflected in -- and partly stimulated

UNITED STATES: Union decline and wages UNITED STATES: Union decline suppresses wage growth The role of union weakness in wage suppression. The long-term erosion of US private sector unionisation has very significant economic effects, by enabling employers in non

FRANCE: Hollande government FRANCE: Hollande team could have strong mandate President-elect Francois Hollande#;s administration and government. Since his election victory on May #, Francois Hollande#;s public focus has been on preparing for his inauguration on May ##

ISRAEL: New government ISRAEL: New government strengthens Netanyahu#;s hand New Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said yesterday that his party had entered government to take advantage of a "historic opportunity". His opposition Kadima party formed a national unity government

PERU: Banking outlook PERU: Banking sector will strengthen Outlook for Peru#;s banking sector. Peru#;s banking sector has become one of the most attractive in Latin America. Economic expansion has fuelled high loan demand from consumers and corporations. A

TAIWAN: Nuclear power TAIWAN: Energy costs will soar despite nuclear build Nuclear power and energy sector reforms in Taiwan. Despite Japan#;s continuing problems in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, Taiwan has recently reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear power

ARMENIA: HHK landslide ARMENIA: Elections will increase political tensions Armenia#;s parliamentary elections. After a heated campaign, Armenia elected a new parliament on May # dominated by the ruling Republican Party (HHK), which secured a landslide victory. Although the conduct

INTERNATIONAL: Insider trading INTERNATIONAL: Focus on insider trading increases The trial of former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta on insider trading charges will begin in New York on May ##. The United States has traditionally taken the harshest enforcement approach

BULGARIA: Reinforcing FDI BULGARIA: Sofia aims at cornering scarcer FDI Bulgaria#;s competitiveness regarding foreign direct investment. Last year was not a good year for foreign direct investment (FDI), but not just for Bulgaria. This was to be expected in

LATIN AMERICA: FDI fortunes LATIN AMERICA: Strong FDI growth will slow this year On May # the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) released its new report, Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean

NIGER: Mali contagion? NIGER: State likely to manage any Mali contagion Prospects for instability in Niger. As Niger#;s democratic government consolidates its position, the start of oil production and rapid expansion of the uranium sector are transforming the country

AUSTRALIA: Budget surplus AUSTRALIA: Budget leaves long-term threats unaddressed On May #, Treasurer Wayne Swan presented the federal budget for the year ending June ##, ####. It forecasts a turnaround from a deficit of ##.# billion Australian dollars

UKRAINE: Investors#; perceptions UKRAINE: Rising risk perceptions deter investment Investors#; increasing concern over the business climate in Ukraine. Although Ukraine has recently received a great deal of attention from international media and investors, this has not necessarily improved perceptions of

INTERNATIONAL: CMIM expansion INTERNATIONAL: ASEAN+# seeks anti-instability bulwark Expansion in the resources and scope of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM). The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, together with China, Japan and South Korea

INDIA: Cyrus Mistry Profile INDIA: New Tata CEO set to advance global strategy Profile of Cyrus Mistry, deputy chairman of Tata Sons. Cyrus Pallonji Mistry, currently deputy chairman of Tata Sons, is due to succeed Ratan Tata as CEO in

ALGERIA: Parliamentary election ALGERIA: Parliamentary poll tests regime legitimacy Parliamentary election takes place today. The fourth parliamentary election to be held since the army cancelled the January #### vote is being viewed as a test of the regime#;s legitimacy

GREECE: Tsipras#;s tactics GREECE: Syriza looks ahead in coalition-forming talks Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) leader Alexis Tsipras has until mid-day Friday to cobble a government together. It is now Syriza#;s turn at coalition-forming

CANADA: Extractive sector reform CANADA: Harper reforms will boost energy sector growth The impact of regulatory reform on Canada#;s extractive industries. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been the unfettered leader of a majority Conservative government for just over a

AFRICA: Low-cost airlines? AFRICA: Low-cost airlines look for new regional growth Prospects for low-cost civil aviation in Africa. Africa accounts for less than #% of the world#;s aviation activity, according to the International Air Transport Association

EURO-AREA: Spain and Italy risks EURO-AREA: Risks rise for Spain and Italy rescues The risk that Spain and Italy could require financial assistance. It is increasingly likely that Spain will require some form of assistance to pull it

AFGHANISTAN/US: Strategic Partnership AFGHANISTAN/US: US election stalls settlement plans The US-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement. The Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), signed on May #, committed the United States to another decade of support for Afghanistan without making any

EGYPT: Economic outlook EGYPT: Economy struggles against political headwinds The government plans to increase spending by ##% in the ####-## fiscal year starting in July, local media reported today, in order to shore up popular support. The uprising that

MEXICO: Monetary stance MEXICO: Monetary stance turns hawkish The outlook for monetary policy. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has held its target interest rate unchanged for nearly three years. While signalling that monetary policy loosening is possible in the near

SOUTH AFRICA: Governing Johannesburg SOUTH AFRICA: Fiscal focus to include municipalities Governing Johannesburg and other South African cities. Recent rating agency focus on the national government#;s fiscal space can come at the expense of attention to the financial status

BANGLADESH: Political gridlock BANGLADESH: Voters brace for chaos as #### polls loom Political outlook ahead of the #### parliamentary elections. The governing Awami League (AL) and the main opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) are gridlocked over the disappearance of one

ROMANIA: Victor Ponta ROMANIA: Ponta will not end chronic misgovernment A profile of new Prime Minister Victor Ponta. New Prime Minister Victor Ponta showed himself an able tactician during the death-throes of Democratic Liberal Party (PDL) rule. He has

BRAZIL: Cachoeira complications BRAZIL: Crime probe puts pressure on political parties Police and congressional investigations into organised crime allegations. A congressional commission is investigating links between politicians and Carlos Augusto Ramos, known as Carlinhos Cachoeira (#;Charlie Waterfall#;), allegedly a key

INTERNATIONAL: WTO and the environment INTERNATIONAL: Green protectionism rises up the agenda The WTO#;s impact on the environment. The rare earths dispute at the WTO has rekindled interest in the relationship between international trade and the environment. The case

LIBYA: Civil society LIBYA: Civil society development is key to transition The development and role of civil society in Libya. Libya is emerging from four decades of authoritarian rule during which there was virtually no civil society development. While many

UGANDA: Museveni troubles UGANDA: Museveni faces growing leadership pressures Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi on May # again rejected calls to step down as secretary-general of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). Pressure on Mbabazi can be understood as an

CHINA: Consumption patterns CHINA: Inequality constrains consumer goods markets Household consumption patterns in China Despite a #;consumer revolution#; that has benefited millions of people, China is still far from a middle-class society. Poverty remains, especially in rural areas, and

GREECE: Delphic decision GREECE: Potential three-party coalition may not last The president of the republic today gives New Democracy (ND) leader Antonis Samaras a three-day mandate to form a government, following yesterday#;s elections. The elections have left

PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Mounting instability PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Tensions mount as elections approach The daughter of former Prime Minister Michael Somare today said her father does not plan to run for office in the next national election, according to media

FRANCE: From #;Merkozy#; to #;Frangela#; FRANCE: Hollande win will force EU policy adjustment Socialist Party (PS) leader Francois Hollande won yesterday#;s presidential election. Hollande, who secured ##% of the votes against Nicolas Sarkozy#;s ##%, is the first Socialist

US/CHINA: Chen and human rights US/CHINA: Chen case shows Obama pragmatism on rights The future of US human rights policy and the state of US-China relations, following the Chen Guangcheng incident. What was to have been an

CHILE: Tax reform CHILE: Tax reform likely to fuel calls for more change A new tax bill was presented to Congress on May #. The bill would raise revenues by only around #.#% of GDP, but would constitute the

BOLIVIA: Strategic nationalisation BOLIVIA: Nationalisation fears are exaggerated The danger of further government expropriation of private enterprises in Bolivia. Bolivia#;s decision to renationalise a Spanish-owned electricity transmission operation has raised fears that this will affect the investment climate

CONGO-KINSHASA: Mining code CONGO-KINSHASA: Cabinet to push mining code revision The outlook for revision of the mining code. Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu#;s reappointment on April ## is a strong signal that a proposed overhaul of the decade